Pattern Failbruary Thread

[GaWx]

Is that from a super upper low?

It is from a trailing upper disturbance rather than from the offshore surface low that precedes it. The offshore low doesn't have cold enough air to work with and thus produces rain. That's why I'm hoping for the surface low's moisture and cold air to better match up on their timing. Get the cold air in sooner for example. Still far enough out for uncertainty.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

It is from a trailing upper disturbance rather from the offshore surface low that precedes it. The offshore low doesn't have cold enough air to work with and thus is rain. That's why I'm hoping for the surface low's moisture and cold air to better match up on their timing.

Looks a lot like the system last Friday

 

[GaWx]

Larry,
I've told ya that my best sleet in Hogtown happened in late Feb ... after a warmup ... bottom line, it ain't over 'till it's over, and the PNA is still doing its positive thing ... even at 14 days ...



View attachment 113024

Phli, this longlived +PNA is awesome!
Do you remember which year Hogtown had that late Feb sleet?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GEFS much more enthusiastic this run .. goes to show how delicate this set up is .. as all of our have been this year due to the lack of blocking .. every storm can go either way quickly .. hmm

 

[pcbjr]

Phli, do you remember which year Hogtown had that late Feb sleet?

Larry,
I'd have to do some records retrieval. It was sometime in the late '90's or early 00's I think. I was representing a landowner/minuite market operator out near Keystone in a very rural stetch and his property had been polluted by an 18 wheeler fuel delivery truck that spilled a goodly discharge of gasoline on his property when trying to do a U-turn on the highway by Lake Crystal. FL DEP charged him with the full cost of remediation. I sued the fuel company for reimbursement. We hired a firm to come out and assess the extent of the discharge, and to prove that the pollution dated to the date in question and was not from a prior event. The firm was from Canada. Those guys were so happy to come to FL for a week in Feb ... little did they suspect or expect ... their cameras froze ... they all stayed inside my client's store the better part of 2 of the 5 days. I remember freezing my tail off, pingers galore, and Keystone, being 20 milkes from Hogtown driving home only to have my wife tell me it was snowing ice all day ... just cannot give you a year ...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lots of different evolutions on the GEFS, clippers, ULT snow band, few weakly phased members, and even a couple west with a mostly rain event

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Noice for coastal areas in fantasy land

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like a front with cold chasing moisture

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Lots of different evolutions on the GEFS, clippers, ULT snow band, few weakly phased members, and even a couple west with a mostly rain event

I’m taking all of that and blending it with the CMC.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Looks like a front with cold chasing moisture

A strong cold front with rain changing to snow in FLA.

 

[Rain Cold]

Just another case of the man keeping us down



Noobie



Follow the hostess, your table is waiting



Everybody put your hands in the air and wave them around as if there are no repercussions

 

[Stormdoc]

ICON starts the 0Z suite with a little something, definitely an improvement over 12Z

 

[GaWx]

The past two days had highs only in the 40s here, the first time this winter for two days in a row that cold.

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS is starting out with a stronger Arctic high/TPV as of Feb 11th. Let’s see how the run goes.

Edit: W coast ridge is a little further west vs prior runs.

 

[GaWx]

 

[GaWx]

Better run it appears:

 

[GaWx]

Even better!

 

[HKY1994]

This looks like a big run at h5


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[GaWx]

Much better!

 

[GaWx]

Snow in N Florida!! ATL big hit! @pcbjr