Pattern Failbruary Thread

[Hypsometric]

That low is pretty far south at hour 138 but get that to shift northwest a couple hundred miles and the upper south would have a nice storm to deal with.
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The only thing I'll say at this range is I definitely like energy already in the base of the trough with convection and a low already developing in the Gulf. But we've done this song and dance before, but it's an enticing look no doubt.

 

[SnowNiner]

I don't know. It just looks like it's another late bloomer, positively tilted poo storm to me. Just have zero confidence at this point. Starting to miss Miller Bs; these late Miller As are just not working out imby. I guess we'll see where this one goes.

 

[GaWx]

As we head toward late February, the major indices suggest an advantage to the SE warministas and those ready to play golf:

1. MJO: headed toward phase 4, a usually warm phase:






2. PNA dropping to neutral and possibly the dreaded -PNA (hopefully not!):



3. Strong +AO:



4. Borderline strong +NAO:



So, enjoy the ups and downs/storminess of the next 10 days or so because mainly up/SER or at least more zonal looks to be favored for late month (DT was talking about this in his weekend video) per these indices as of now though hopefully that will change or at least not last too long.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice

 

[iGRXY]

Pattern change is highly likely but I still say it’s likely towards the end of February. These things tend to be rushed by 7-10 days whether it be cold to warmth or warmth to cold. But the MJO is going to go into warmer phases likely around the 3rd week of February but the affect usually takes a week to take place down stream.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Probably a good run incoming on the Euro.

 

[BullCityWx]

????

 

[SNOWMANN]

Euro looks good so far. The way the GFS has trended this season I don't know if suppression is good or not maybe we should be rooting for an apps runner at this point lol

 

[BullCityWx]

It was actually a significant step backward.

 

[GaWx]

Probably a good run incoming on the Euro.
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If only we could get the cold air to come in 12 hours earlier! Plenty of time for this to change for the better. At least climo is about the best around this time.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Might be a one of those storms where the models are ambiguous until somebody gets NAM’d.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[smast16]

With everyone distracted with the Valentines day storm, but has anyone noticed that's pretty much the only cold shot showing? Everything else is normal or Above normal 850's? And even then it's not even that cold? Some good 60's for Nc are showing up too right before.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still a light event for NC on the euro. I would take any amount of snow as a send-off to warm by the end of the month.

 

[whatalife]

This would be nice.

 

[KyloG]

I think the setup looks good, low to our north tracking east, HP slips underneath, now we just need the right timing for something to spin up.?‍

 

[rburrel2]

With everyone distracted with the Valentines day storm, but has anyone noticed that's pretty much the only cold shot showing? Everything else is normal or Above normal 850's? And even then it's not even that cold? Some good 60's for Nc are showing up too right before.

Looking at the euro I count 8 of the next 9 days showing normal or below normal 850mb temp anomalies for our region. Only one day is above normal, two days if you include today.

Specifically for Clemson, SC it is showing 6 below normal days, two above normal days, and two average days. That's including today as an above normal day.

It is looking likely we won't get a serious cold shot with this stout western ridge though, which is lame.

 

[iGRXY]

Looking at the euro I count 8 of the next 9 days showing normal or below normal 850mb temp anomalies for our region. Only one day is above normal, two days if you include today.

Specifically for Clemson, SC it is showing 6 below normal days, two above normal days, and two average days. That's including today as an above normal day.

It is looking likely we won't get a serious cold shot with this stout western ridge though, which is lame.

Other than a very brief warm up from Friday 2/11 around lunch to early Sunday morning 2/13, there's really no above average anomalies until the very end of the run.

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS clown:




12Z Euro operational clown:

 

[SD]

Lol at how close the euro is to mega bomb.

You can see both the gfs and euro phase into the base of the trough but it's so positive tilt and the energy is weak enough it doesn't tilt negative and wrap up. Not a bad d6-7 look imo I've seen people try to spin uglier looks into the next 93/00

 

[smast16]

One or Two shades of Blue or Red don't constitute as Above or Below. That's only 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit, and just average.