Yeah, significant step toward the euro there
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
^^The way the models have behaved, day 6 is still way way out in fantasy land. Needs to get in to day 3 or 4 before I bite.
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,582
- Reaction score
- 19,103
Same. Been waiting for this to show up, think everyone has seen the window wide open for opportunity around V Day. Hopefully we can reel in one more big one before Spring shows up. I made the mistake of watching Golf on TV yesterday, Started running a golf fever, but took some 0z euro and the fever has gone away!
Stephenb888
Member
I like it but why does it seem to be lacking cold temps?
Hopefully we can get it to tilt negative before it goes off the Eastern US.
ATLwxfan
Member
Baby steps but steps nonetheless. A couple more ticks west and maybe we are in business?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not with the gfs. Surface temp
issues
rburrel2
Member
Gfs is the only model hanging back that diving energy in the southwest at around 120hrs. Feel like if that can merge with the southern stream shortwave and eject our way we could get a big deal. Icon shows them merging and seems to have a colder solution. A lot depends on that northern stream wave advancing far enough east to lay some cold air down out ahead of this storm too. We need that feature to trend faster.
EPS not as impressive but a few with that coastal look, 06z GFS looking little better maybe we get an idea of what might happen later Saturday night Lol
I like the Valentine's day potential. GFS and CMC are showing it hopefully it doesn't shear out and comes NW a little wouldn't take much for a significant board wide storm.
Wheretorch?
tonysc
Member
From GSP
Uncertainty rushes back in late in the weekend with
the next system, which comes at us in the guise of a clipper-type
short wave Saturday night and Sunday. Both operational models have
this wave digging the upper trof as it crosses the Appalachians,
forcing lee cyclogenesis as cold air aloft arrives with the passage
of the trof. Hmmm...very interesting. The result is a shot of
wintry precip, mostly snow, that according to the models would
affect much of the region on Sunday. Now...the GFS solution has
only lukewarm support from its ensemble thus far...so one should
not get carried away. The model blend takes in enough sources that
do not feature such a wintry outcome, so for the time being our
forecast will be quite conservative and show only a small chance
of elevation-dependent rain/snow over the mtns as the cold front
crosses the region, and temps dropping back to a category below
normal for Sunday/Sunday night. But, this gives us something to
watch and talk about for the next few days.
And from Southeast WX
We will begin talking more about the major winter storm potential during the February 14-18 time frame in our next update around mid-next week. Be safe and remember to slow down on any icy roads or better yet, stay home if you can.
Uncertainty rushes back in late in the weekend with
the next system, which comes at us in the guise of a clipper-type
short wave Saturday night and Sunday. Both operational models have
this wave digging the upper trof as it crosses the Appalachians,
forcing lee cyclogenesis as cold air aloft arrives with the passage
of the trof. Hmmm...very interesting. The result is a shot of
wintry precip, mostly snow, that according to the models would
affect much of the region on Sunday. Now...the GFS solution has
only lukewarm support from its ensemble thus far...so one should
not get carried away. The model blend takes in enough sources that
do not feature such a wintry outcome, so for the time being our
forecast will be quite conservative and show only a small chance
of elevation-dependent rain/snow over the mtns as the cold front
crosses the region, and temps dropping back to a category below
normal for Sunday/Sunday night. But, this gives us something to
watch and talk about for the next few days.
And from Southeast WX
We will begin talking more about the major winter storm potential during the February 14-18 time frame in our next update around mid-next week. Be safe and remember to slow down on any icy roads or better yet, stay home if you can.
EPS 
lexxnchloe
Member
At least it isnt 500 miles offshore this time. Reason for optimism.
Can someone post a 500mb graphic of the PV evolution in North America over the last 45 days? Not sure where to find that info.
Can’t believe Guilford County had in person learning today.
I'm not sure where they get their weather consulting from but it's not very good. A few weeks ago they cancelled all afterschool activities even through the precip didn't even arrive until after 9pm. I can't figure them out but I'm going to offer my services, for a fee, of course.
smast16
Member
They also cancelled that day before for the entire day for 'Black Ice', and it was 50 and sunny by noon. A late opening of 9am would have sufficed just fine.
rburrel2
Member
just slight differences on the placement of that vort dropping down between the GFS and Icon. 
Imo, we need it to drop down somewhere in between these two outcomes to allow that baja energy to phase in and give time for the northern stream wave to seperate push east allowing cold air to filter in. GFS drops it too far southwest and leaves in there; icon drops it too far east and doesn't fully pick up the baja energy or amplify enough to provide a storm. 
Imo, we need it to drop down somewhere in between these two outcomes to allow that baja energy to phase in and give time for the northern stream wave to seperate push east allowing cold air to filter in. GFS drops it too far southwest and leaves in there; icon drops it too far east and doesn't fully pick up the baja energy or amplify enough to provide a storm.