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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCHighCountryWX
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- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
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Still looking for more snow in the mountains.. Will have to be patient and wait about a week....
MJO on 1/7/1988 was inside circle phase 8:
On 1/7/1988, NAO was moderately + at +0.491 and the AO was neutral at +0.063. The EPO was a moderately - at -105 and coming off of a strong - from just a few days before.
Last edited:
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, that the ticket...... positive PNA coupled wit a phase 8 inside the circle. No wonder we had a major winter storm.
And helped by a -EPO as it was ending. These factors were enough to "overcome" the moderate +NAO. The AO was neutral.
I like this… 
Stephenb888
Member
Why?
If we’re going to have another late bloomer, having some WAR pushing in might slow it down. Agreed
LickWx
Member
GEFS looks like an improvement for Valentine’s Day
In all fairness, I think Larry started doubting his call on that -3 several days ago. I'm not quite ready to call winter over yet and don't give a damn what the models are showing. We are heading into prime time as far as I am concerned. No way I am rushing it along based on some numerical output, which have been horrible so far. What was it? Two whole days ago that all the models were showing a blockbuster mid month? Pfffffffft......
pcbjr
Member
tennessee storm
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
I see potential with this look.
lexxnchloe
Member
Looks a bit better than 12Z
I agree it isn't looking good at all right now for my -3 or colder for the first half of Feb at ATL and RDU. I have posted about that recently though I still haven't totally given up just yet in case 2/13-14 end up being much colder than forecasted. But if this were a bet and the house were to allow me to cancel and get my money back, I'd be glad to do so.
td tide
Member
Outside activities requiring warmth are easy to do from April through October. I don’t understand how so many look forward to tracking chances and then after 5 weeks of cool weather are like okay bring on 6 months of heat and humidity.
Maybe two for anything substantial over an inch or two. From mid month on is the time I'm watching looking for signals anyway.
ATLwxfan
Member
Some of it is frustration after things don’t pan and really just a sense of being in it to win it. But I suppose a good number of us truly love that April-October stretch.
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YW. I'm tempted to put this in its own thread because it isn't directly related to just current/this month's weather and it keeps generating good discussions and debates. But for now, I'll just put this here:
Since it was requested and because I'm also curious, here's the PNA added to the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral PNA/NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):
-1/19/1955: +0.1 neutral PNA; -0.8 -NAO
- 12/11/1958: +0.7 +PNA; +0.0 neutral NAO
- 3/2-3/1960: -0.8 -PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO
- 3/9/1960: -0.5 -PNA; -0.2 neutral NAO
- 2/26/1963: +1.3 +PNA; +0.2 neutral NAO
- 1/25-7/1966: +0.2 neutral PNA; -1.2 -NAO
- 2/9/1967: +0.5 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO
- 3/1/1969: +1.3 +PNA; -0.6 -NAO
- 1/7-8/1973: +0.3 +PNA; -1.1 -NAO
- 2/18-9/1979: -0.0 neutral PNA; -0.1 neutral NAO
- 3/1-2/1980: +0.2 neutral PNA; +0.4 +NAO
- 3/24/1983: +0.7 +PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO
- 2/6/1984: +0.7 +PNA; +1.1 +NAO
- 1/7-8/1988: +0.7 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO
- 2/17-8/1989: +0.0 neutral PNA; +1.6 +NAO
- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): +0.8 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO
- 1/2-3/2002: +1.2 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO
- 2/26-7/2004: -0.1 neutral PNA; -0.5 -NAO
- 12/25-6/2010: -0.3 -PNA; -0.9 -NAO
- 1/17-8/2018: -0.1 neutral PNA; +1.2 +NAO
- 12/9-10/2018: +0.9 +PNA; +0.9 +NAO
Tallies:
1) PNA:
+PNA: 11
Neutral PNA: 7
-PNA: 3
**Average PNA for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.4
2) NAO:
-NAO: 8
Neutral NAO: 6
+NAO: 7
**Average NAO for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.0