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Pattern Failbruary Thread

GaWx said:
YW. I'm tempted to put this in its own thread because it isn't directly related to just current/this month's weather and it keeps generating good discussions and debates. But for now, I'll just put this here:

Since it was requested and because I'm also curious, here's the PNA added to the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral PNA/NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):

-1/19/1955: +0.1 neutral PNA; -0.8 -NAO

- 12/11/1958: +0.7 +PNA; +0.0 neutral NAO

- 3/2-3/1960: -0.8 -PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: -0.5 -PNA; -0.2 neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: +1.3 +PNA; +0.2 neutral NAO

- 1/25-7/1966: +0.2 neutral PNA; -1.2 -NAO

- 2/9/1967: +0.5 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO

- 3/1/1969: +1.3 +PNA; -0.6 -NAO

- 1/7-8/1973: +0.3 +PNA; -1.1 -NAO

- 2/18-9/1979: -0.0 neutral PNA; -0.1 neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +0.2 neutral PNA; +0.4 +NAO

- 3/24/1983: +0.7 +PNA; +0.1 neutral NAO

- 2/6/1984: +0.7 +PNA; +1.1 +NAO

- 1/7-8/1988: +0.7 +PNA; +0.5 +NAO

- 2/17-8/1989: +0.0 neutral PNA; +1.6 +NAO

- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): +0.8 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 1/2-3/2002: +1.2 +PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 2/26-7/2004: -0.1 neutral PNA; -0.5 -NAO

- 12/25-6/2010: -0.3 -PNA; -0.9 -NAO

- 1/17-8/2018: -0.1 neutral PNA; +1.2 +NAO

- 12/9-10/2018: +0.9 +PNA; +0.9 +NAO



Tallies:


1) PNA:

+PNA: 11

Neutral PNA: 7

-PNA: 3


**Average PNA for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.4





2) NAO:

-NAO: 8

Neutral NAO: 6

+NAO: 7


**Average NAO for the 21 big RDU snowstorms: +0.0
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PNA wins! By a small margin so mainly noise but it makes the case
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
PNA wins! By a small margin so mainly noise but it makes the case
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It isn’t a big margin, but I think it is a bit more than mainly noise, especially when you look at the breakdowns I provided. Also, consider this. I call
strong -PNA/+NAO to be -1 or lower/+1 or greater. Based on this, there were none with a strong -PNA while there were three with a strong +NAO.

Regardless as has been stated by several including myself, the official calculation of NAO may mean you can have a Greenland block without a -NAO. So, in those cases, it could be a matter of semantics.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Imo there’s a lot more then numbers there’s looks that resemble -NAOs/+PNAs that don’t exactly show up on the numbers but would show up at H5
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I think your point is a valid point to consider. For some of these storms, it may be officially not -NAO but there still be a Greenland Block. I’ve also stated that. But I still would rather have a +PNA than a -NAO if I can only have one. I mean only 1/7 of the storms were during a -PNA and none were during a strong -PNA!

Edit: In addition, +PNA has the highest correlation of any one index to SE cold, especially deep SE, and a cold pattern in general. I’ve come to really hate -PNAs after this awful December we had to endure, day after day after day ad nauseum seeing butt ugly H5! Nasty stuff that wouldn’t end. I absolutely detest west coast troughs. ? Even DT was talking in his latest video about how bad -PNAs are.
 
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GaWx said:
I agree it isn't looking good at all right now for my -3 or colder for the first half of Feb at ATL and RDU. I have posted about that recently though I still haven't totally given up just yet in case 2/13-14 end up being much colder than forecasted. But if this were a bet and the house were to allow me to cancel and get my money back, I'd be glad to do so.
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Youll be in reach after today and tommorows negatives get calculated in, here atleast. Bet your even, maybe - turf Tuesday morning GSO. We had 2 days AN , skewing you right now.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Reminder that the GFS is a ---- model
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dang-damn.gif
 
So this one would be another screw me in NE GA one? I'm trying not to say bad words...
 
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