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Pattern Failbruary Thread

ATLwxfan said:
Well it got shredded.


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Still alot better than 06Z. Trended in the right didrection. Cold front faster and just need a few more adjustments

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png
 
ATLwxfan said:
Frustrating part has been the favorable trends that just seem to stop short over and over. But yes no doubt a better look.


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As I heard it once well described in a previous forum, there is a lot of “positively tilted trash” on the models. We need more consolidated energy at the base of this trough to get something.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep true and still scored 3 winter events .. I bet if we only had a -NAO we would have scored 3 cold rains
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Ok and I bet if we had a -nao/+pna we have a foot plus seasonal total instead of 3 mediocre events that seem to be top notch in your opinion. You've missed the point here but whatever
Oh BTW we had 2 snow events last year with a -nao and whatever that pacific was so....
 
-NAO would have probably gave us some monster winter storms considering it would have slowed down the 50/50 low the first storm, slowed the flow with the second storm, and would have promoted slowed flow for digging with the 3rd. It’s a huge help
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
-NAO would have probably gave us some monster winter storms considering it would have slowed down the 50/50 low the first storm, slowed the flow with the second storm, and would have promoted slowed flow for digging with the 3rd. It’s a huge help
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Yep it's not that western ridges are a bad thing but they have small margins for error and typically accelerate the flow. Having a -nao in addition to the pna widens the margins for error and slows the flow. I'm fine with a western/pna ridge alone but I understand that it's going to take a near perfect setup to get a significant snow event from it.
 
SD said:
Ok and I bet if we had a -nao/+pna we have a foot plus seasonal total instead of 3 mediocre events that seem to be top notch in your opinion. You've missed the point here but whatever
Oh BTW we had 2 snow events last year with a -nao and whatever that pacific was so....
Click to expand...

Here’s some actual data to consider about the importance of -NAO at RDU:

Here's the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):

-1/19/1955: -NAO

- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO

- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO

- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO

- 2/9/1967: +NAO

- 3/1/1969: -NAO

- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO

- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO

- 3/24/1983: neutral NAO

- 2/6/1984: +NAO

- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO

- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO

- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): -NAO

- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO

- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO

- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO

- 1/17-8/2018: +NAO

- 12/9-10/2018 +NAO



Tally:

-NAO: 8

Neutral NAO: 6

+NAO: 7

Though 2000-2010’s four big storms including the Crusher were all during -NAO, this shows a pretty even split through the entire period and the sample size isn’t small. Note that the last two were during +NAO as well as very notable storms like 3/1980 and 1/1988.

I don’t know. I’m admittedly a bit surprised the numbers are this balanced. Perhaps some of this is due to how the NCEP based NAO is defined/calculated. I mean I think you can still have good blocking near Greenland and it not officially be calculated as -NAO.

By the way, I also did a similar analysis for the NAO five days before each storm and the result didn’t change much with any -NAO advantage still small.
 
GaWx said:
Here’s some actual data to consider about the importance of -NAO at RDU:

Here's the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):

-1/19/1955: -NAO

- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO

- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO

- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO

- 2/9/1967: +NAO

- 3/1/1969: -NAO

- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO

- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO

- 3/24/1983: neutral NAO

- 2/6/1984: +NAO

- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO

- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO

- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): -NAO

- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO

- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO

- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO

- 1/17-8/2018: +NAO

- 12/9-10/2018 +NAO



Tally:

-NAO: 8

Neutral NAO: 6

+NAO: 7

Though 2000-2010’s four big storms including the Crusher were all during -NAO, this shows a pretty even split through the entire period and the sample size isn’t small. Note that the last two were during +NAO as well as very notable storms like 3/1980 and 1/1988.

I don’t know. I’m admittedly a bit surprised the numbers are this balanced. Perhaps some of this is due to how the NCEP based NAO is defined/calculated. I mean I think you can still have good blocking near Greenland and it not officially be calculated as -NAO.

By the way, I also did a similar analysis for the NAO five days before each storm and the result didn’t change much with any -NAO advantage still small.
Click to expand...

I just quickly pulled the first 2 neutral Nao years. I'd argue they both had west based blocking in the hudson bay region that quantifies as a neutral nao but doesnt act like it,that gets into semantics a little I guess.
compday.GX417KDBGs.gif
compday.9lFEB5GI26.gif
 
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SD said:
Ok and I bet if we had a -nao/+pna we have a foot plus seasonal total instead of 3 mediocre events that seem to be top notch in your opinion. You've missed the point here but whatever
Oh BTW we had 2 snow events last year with a -nao and whatever that pacific was so....
Click to expand...
I never said the COMBO -nao and +pna is not the most ideal I have always agreed with that .. I said if we are going to have just 1 of these teleconnections on our side it should be the +PNA over the -NAO .. the events this year were not top notch and I never said that. we had one decent winter storm with 3-4 inches of snow, an ice storm, and then some novelty stuff. Still I find this winter much better than the 15 or so cold rains we got last year. But you are right we did get a 1.5 jackpot storm last year with the -NAO but that was it. Maybe since last year we had all -NAO and this year all +PNA next year we can have the beautiful combo!
 
GaWx said:
Here’s some actual data to consider about the importance of -NAO at RDU:

Here's the NAO for the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950. (I'm calling neutral NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):

-1/19/1955: -NAO

- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO

- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO

- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO

- 2/9/1967: +NAO

- 3/1/1969: -NAO

- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO

- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO

- 3/24/1983: neutral NAO

- 2/6/1984: +NAO

- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO

- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO

- 1/24-5/2000 (“Crusher”): -NAO

- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO

- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO

- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO

- 1/17-8/2018: +NAO

- 12/9-10/2018 +NAO



Tally:

-NAO: 8

Neutral NAO: 6

+NAO: 7

Though 2000-2010’s four big storms including the Crusher were all during -NAO, this shows a pretty even split through the entire period and the sample size isn’t small. Note that the last two were during +NAO as well as very notable storms like 3/1980 and 1/1988.

I don’t know. I’m admittedly a bit surprised the numbers are this balanced. Perhaps some of this is due to how the NCEP based NAO is defined/calculated. I mean I think you can still have good blocking near Greenland and it not officially be calculated as -NAO.

By the way, I also did a similar analysis for the NAO five days before each storm and the result didn’t change much with any -NAO advantage still small.
Click to expand...
This is great I wonder what the real data says about +PNAs past couple decades. Thanks for the research!
 
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