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Pattern Failboat February

NCSNOW said:
We need to chase one more ( Big dog, aka 1993). Be hard outside elevation, but a long shot at a whopper/ failing most likely would be the perfect cap to the season. I got countless months coming up to play Golf and Mow Grass etc.
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Yeah, I agree it's too much to ask for outside of elevation. I'm hoping the increased southern jet, a bit of SE ridge, but colder than normal temps will yield a big mountain storm I can chase.

Honestly I appreciate the dusting events, but it gets me a bit frustrated and determined for a bigger event. I want a real snow storm where I see no grass or road, and just a blanket of white.
 
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06z Euro AI in 10 days


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I really like the idea of this March coming out of the gate cold, then we see a sudden flip into spring around mid-month or so, with a western trough/SE ridge pattern making a big comeback.

The Pacific jet is going to run out of gas/+U influx from the tropics & extratropics with this -EAMT (low pressure over the eastern slopes of Tibet) and then MJO settling into the Maritime Continent during week 3.

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Webberweather53 said:
The extended GEFS as well as the ECMWF, CMC, & JMA weeklies all agree on a SE ridge/-PNA pattern making a triumphant return by the middle of March or so.

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This is also a classic response to Maritime Continent MJO forcing during the middle of March.

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I’m hoping, bright side averages and sun don’t care what the pattern is they are going up, below average gets less cold with time


March 15 Averages

GSO 61/39
RDU 63/40
CLT 64/41
AVL 59/37
ILM 66/44
 
I’m around 5.5-6” here on the season, which is about our average, maybe a little above with our newest 30-year averages. Certainly above the median yearly snowfall (averages are big time right/skewed around here). I would give winter a B, maybe a B+ at this point. I reserve As for 10”+. Tough grader. 🤓

Another score in March could put this into A territory, but I won’t be holding my breath. I’m still of the belief that March (especially the first half) can be a wintry month for us. I can see the argument that a warming climate may chop these off as productive wintry months and maybe already have to some extent, but I am not sure I buy that to an extreme degree. Even though our Marches are much warmer than December, it’s still a better month for snow often because it has more extremes, one way or the other, and there’s plenty of cold air to tap in up north (less so in December).
 
KyloG said:
So sick…

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That's a favorable pattern for one more shot at snow before mid March comes. One of the most memorable snowfalls for me was March 1, 1980 when eastern Wake County received over a foot of snow with temperatures in the teens the entire day. I'm not expecting a repeat of that but another shot at snow would put the frosting on the cake for this winter.
 
weather bubba said:
That's a favorable pattern for one more shot at snow before mid March comes. One of the most memorable snowfalls for me was March 1, 1980 when eastern Wake County received over a foot of snow with temperatures in the teens the entire day. I'm not expecting a repeat of that but another shot at snow would put the frosting on the cake for this winter.
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I remember that one well ! Even down here in Cumberland County we had 11 inches, and there were totals east of here (sorry!) 20-30 inches.

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NCSNOW said:
The younger generation needs to experience a March 1993. I could use another dose myself, been over 30 years.
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We missed the front end of this and got a ton of rain but still got around 3 inches of snow out of the back end. If this happened in January and tracked 50-75 farther southeast, we would have been measuring snow by the feet here.
 
Pup12 said:
Where you leave school in pouring rain and get home 10 minutes later and it’s whiteout conditions. That was a great day
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I was in college, rained hard all day, started sleeting around 12AM, Blizzard and thundersnow by 2AM. 5-6 inches and freaking snow drifts by 8 AM. It was glorious.
 
Arcc said:
Absolutely. I’m definitely supercell watching by then.
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Me too. I could see another round of high latitude blocking perhaps near the end of March or early April, but I think 💩 will really hit the fan later in April with the next eastern hemisphere mjo orbit after this one
 
JHS said:
We missed the front end of this and got a ton of rain but still got around 3 inches of snow out of the back end. If this happened in January and tracked 50-75 farther southeast, we would have been measuring snow by the feet here.
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Yea i was up in ole Cullowhee, Caught the full monty Official Blizzard warning from NWS @ 17 inches. It was white out, couldn't see your hand in front of your face at times. Incredible experience
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
My parents used to talk about one year in the 60s it snowed 3 weeks in a row in March …. Idk if it’s true they’re pretty old memory could be fogged


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March 1960 in Nashville. It Would be incredible in any winter month let alone March!
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