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Pattern Failboat February

I’ve seen several March snows!! Even as south as I am below Atlanta! In fact.. I never give up until mid March!!

My parents used to talk about one year in the 60s it snowed 3 weeks in a row in March …. Idk if it’s true they’re pretty old memory could be fogged


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i have to admit I was kind of looking forward to some warm weather and golf. I’ve had about as much Charlie Brown/Lucy and the football for one year. Lol!
Maybe one last trace-dusting lol, then we warm up mid-March and out. Spring is the only time of year when I like above normal temperatures!
 
My parents used to talk about one year in the 60s it snowed 3 weeks in a row in March …. Idk if it’s true they’re pretty old memory could be fogged


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It true.. March 1960. That was a very memorable month

 
Getting late in winter, but March 4th trends on GEFS

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For March, we're going to need some really dark blues/barney purple over us to get the job done imo. It would be really nice though to be able to actually capitalize on the MJO being in good phases for once.

Not sure which is worse, just straight warm winter with no chances, or cold winter with lots of chances that fail. I think the latter actually.
 
lol, for March, we're going to need some really dark blues/barney purple over us to get the job done imo. It would be really nice though to be able to actually capitalize on the MJO being in good phases for once.

Not sure which is worse, just straight warm winter with no chances, or cold winter with lots of chances that fail. I think the latter actually.
We would probably find a way to still be too cold and dry lol
 
It true.. March 1960. That was a very memorable month

Goodlord.... They just kind of casually picked up 23" in 14 days and the cool part.....3 separate storms. Verbatim, can you imagine the state of this boards bandwidth if even the first system that dropped 11" came through? But to literally have 10-12" System within 4 days to track during and after the first one.... only to have another minor event a week later

edit : and they had picked up 6 -8 in Feb too jeeez
 
It true.. March 1960. That was a very memorable month

Interestingly, GSO actually had three snow events in mid-March 2017 in a two week period, although they only added up to 5-6” total, so a far cry from the insanity of 1960.
 
Interestingly, GSO actually had three snow events in mid-March 2017 in a two week period, although they only added up to 5-6” total, so a far cry from the insanity of 1960.
Wanna feel even more let down ..... take a peak through that next decade, my parents got not one not two but 3 more 10-15" events over the following 10yrs. My lord it really was like that back in the stone ages i guess
 
There’s going to be a ton of Northwest flow to close out the month and into early March.

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Yeah GEFS looks better than EPS right now which isn't great. But they both seem to show eastern troughs, but with no blocking up top at all, and a WAR. My guess is storms cut, but you're right the mountains may have another one or two legit threats with wrap-around flow. Will chase Boone/Blowing Rock if I see a solid 6 inch storm forecasted.

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Yeah GEFS looks better than EPS right now which isn't great. But they both seem to show eastern troughs, but with no blocking up top at all, and a WAR. My guess is storms cut, but you're right the mountains may have another one or two legit threats with wrap-around flow. Will chase Boone/Blowing Rock if I see a solid 6 inch storm forecasted.

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In December, the EPS was king with pattern recognition.

When we flipped to the January time period when New Orleans got hit, initially the GEFS was too far west in the long range and the EPS was better. Then in the medium range they flipped, and the GEFS did well with the -EPO / bean bag shaped cold blast that hit the CONUS while the EPS was too far west.

All to say, I'm not discounting the GEFS in comparison to the EPS this time. Maybe it will do well again with a -EPO pattern in the longer-range, pattern recognition period

Regular GFS 5-Day here for Mar 2-7

Feb 19 GFS 5 day.png
 
In December, the EPS was king with pattern recognition.

When we flipped to the January time period when New Orleans got hit, initially the GEFS was too far west in the long range and the EPS was better. Then in the medium range they flipped, and the GEFS did well with the -EPO / bean bag shaped cold blast that hit the CONUS while the EPS was too far west.

All to say, I'm not discounting the GEFS in comparison to the EPS this time. Maybe it will do well again with a -EPO pattern in the longer-range, pattern recognition period

Regular GFS 5-Day here for Mar 2-7

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The cold being modeled is so sick...

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_7day-1348800.png
 
In December, the EPS was king with pattern recognition.

When we flipped to the January time period when New Orleans got hit, initially the GEFS was too far west in the long range and the EPS was better. Then in the medium range they flipped, and the GEFS did well with the -EPO / bean bag shaped cold blast that hit the CONUS while the EPS was too far west.

All to say, I'm not discounting the GEFS in comparison to the EPS this time. Maybe it will do well again with a -EPO pattern in the longer-range, pattern recognition period

Regular GFS 5-Day here for Mar 2-7

View attachment 170791

That's a fair point, they've kind of gone back and forth both this winter.

Look at that STJ, wow. Maybe that could keep a storm underneath us.
 
Didn't look into it too deeply, but Euro says "what cold?" for the same time period the GFS has been trying to hint at.

If we're to go off the Euro vs GFS, you could argue that for a similar ish timeframe, it's severe weather vs a potential late winter storm.
 
Didn't look into it too deeply, but Euro says "what cold?" for the same time period the GFS has been trying to hint at.

If we're to go off the Euro vs GFS, you could argue that for a similar ish timeframe, it's severe weather vs a potential late winter storm.
Gfs will cave in to the euro like a redheaded step child
 
I wish I could post a GIF here, but both the EPS and GEFS look good between D10-D16+. MJO still running through the cold side helps. I think we have at least one more storm to track.

Either way, this has been a fun winter. We've had several events to track together and plenty of cold. It's felt like winter, and I've enjoyed tracking these things with you.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_anom_5day-1262400.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_anom_5day-1348800.png
 
I wish I could post a GIF here, but both the EPS and GEFS look good between D10-D16+. MJO still running through the cold side helps. I think we have at least one more storm to track.

Either way, this has been a fun winter. We've had several events to track together and plenty of cold. It's felt like winter, and I've enjoyed tracking these things with you.

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Severe season gonna be rockin! Early start? Gonna be a banger by May
 
I’ve seen several March snows!! Even as south as I am below Atlanta! In fact.. I never give up until mid March!!
We had the two ulls that dropped snow on me, even melting as it fell. They would have hit you too, though they missed Greg, lol. Too far north. I've seen snow in early April when I was a kid, so I never cave to spring until Master's week end is over. And I never give up on blizzards until after mid March. All it takes is a triple phase to blow everyone's mind, lol.
 
Only got to 39 overnight, low temp prediction busted by several degrees.

22 predicted (which is similarish to January) for tomorrow night, but I wonder if whether we end up not in the ballpark, it’ll certainly depend on the way today goes on any warmup.
 
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