I'm watching the 8-11 day period for a possible event and then just beyond that for a potentially bigger event somewhere along the east coast. Active pattern with cold air returning. There looks like there may be enough amplitude in the pattern to allow at least a traditional phasing situation...maybe more.
Showing the AI, which goes on to phase, but it's OTS.
Spring is coming, but probably not till after mid month. MJO just hibernating on the cold side for a change. Models have been too aggressive trying to kill it, so we'll see.
View attachment 171186
View attachment 171187