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Pattern Failboat February

Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity how well have the graph casts performed this winter?
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The Euro Graphcast ensemble mean is the single best forecasting tool in the world in the day 4-7 time range.

I can't find much data on the GFS version, but anecdotally, I think it's a little better than the regular GFS, just my two cents from watching it this winter.

Here's an abstract from a journal published November 2023:

Abstract​

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy but does not directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. Here, we introduce GraphCast, a machine learning–based method trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables for the next 10 days at 0.25° resolution globally in under 1 minute. GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclone tracking, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.
 
SnowQueen said:
Not sure where to put this but I love CAD! It has gone from low 40s to 65 IMBY in barely an hour! Phenomenal
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Same thing here. It was in the upper 40s all night then in about 20 minutes, it jumped to 67. Getting some heavy rain, lots of thunder and have had the wind gust to 40mph a couple times
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s honestly a little troubling to see how close both the low frequency atmosphere and ocean base state is to 2011 as we head towards the spring.

We’re probably in for a real nasty tornado season across the conus

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Beyond 2011, I took a closer look at the large-scale atmospheric angular momentum anomalies for mid to late winter this year (approximated using 850-200mb zonal wind anomalies) to see if there was any notable trends we could latch onto going into the spring. What I found was interesting.

Here is how the 200mb zonal wind in Jan-Feb this year compares to the subset of weighted AAMa analogs for the same period.

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When you roll things forward into March, the negative zonal wind anomalies in the northern tropics begin to lift north, especially over the western hemisphere/Atlantic.

This is a climatologically favored response and what you would generally expect from the Global Synoptic Dynamical Model (GSDM) & Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), where zonal wind anomalies slowly propagate poleward over periods of several weeks to a few months. It is also the kind of behavior an eastern hemisphere MJO orbit favors (which we are getting one in early March).

The extended GEFS also generally agrees with the composite analog in mid to late March

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What is probably the most intriguing part about this is by April & May, there is a stronger than normal westerly jet near jet stream-level over the CONUS, suggestive of a more active storm track & greater-than-normal potential for big tornado outbreaks.

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I love to pick on Glenn “No Snow For You” Burns, but he’s really honking the cold pattern on FB

This is unprecedented! Normally, we would see a disruption of the POLAR VORTEX every other year or so. THIS NEXT POLAR VORTEX EVENT WILL MAKE 10 THIS WINTER!
The significant cold will intensify across the Northern Plains on Sunday and gradually spread south and east across the United States next week. By mid-week, the Arctic cold pool will reach deep South to the Gulf and East Coast by Friday. Brutal cold days and locally historic, record-low temperatures are forecast.

Active Polar Vortex above North America takes no break. Next week, its southern lobe will generate another significant, frigid cold Arctic Blast from Canada into the United States, sending temperatures back into the deep freeze 40-50 °F below average. Then, another significant Arctic cold outbreak follows next week. The frigid cold air mass has maintained over much of Canada and the northern U.S. over the last two weeks and is forecast to plunge far south across the nation in the coming days. Temperatures are forecast to push back into a deep freeze, with 40 to more than 50 degrees F below normal for tens of millions across the North American continent.
The significant cold will intensify across the Northern Plains on Sunday and gradually spread south and east across the United States next week. By mid-week, the Arctic cold pool will reach deep South to the Gulf and East Coast by Friday. Brutal cold days and locally historic, record-low temperatures are expected.

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Ron Burgundy said:
I love to pick on Glenn “No Snow For You” Burns, but he’s really honking the cold pattern on FB

This is unprecedented! Normally, we would see a disruption of the POLAR VORTEX every other year or so. THIS NEXT POLAR VORTEX EVENT WILL MAKE 10 THIS WINTER!
The significant cold will intensify across the Northern Plains on Sunday and gradually spread south and east across the United States next week. By mid-week, the Arctic cold pool will reach deep South to the Gulf and East Coast by Friday. Brutal cold days and locally historic, record-low temperatures are forecast.

Active Polar Vortex above North America takes no break. Next week, its southern lobe will generate another significant, frigid cold Arctic Blast from Canada into the United States, sending temperatures back into the deep freeze 40-50 °F below average. Then, another significant Arctic cold outbreak follows next week. The frigid cold air mass has maintained over much of Canada and the northern U.S. over the last two weeks and is forecast to plunge far south across the nation in the coming days. Temperatures are forecast to push back into a deep freeze, with 40 to more than 50 degrees F below normal for tens of millions across the North American continent.
The significant cold will intensify across the Northern Plains on Sunday and gradually spread south and east across the United States next week. By mid-week, the Arctic cold pool will reach deep South to the Gulf and East Coast by Friday. Brutal cold days and locally historic, record-low temperatures are expected.

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That's really saying something especially when he loves to hype the slightest hint of warmth
 
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