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Pattern Failboat February

I don’t want to get the day started off negative but I will say this. If we waste a track like this and can’t find a way to get half of the board snow in February with a sprawling high pressure and the coldest anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere on top of us then I don’t think it can snow here in mid/late February any more. And I halfway mean that.IMG_1519.jpeg
 
SnowNiner said:
Not sure it’s helping anymore. Long range looks warm and zonal. I think next week is our last chance imo.

View attachment 169087
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GEFS says not so fast! Big cold in Canada just waiting to head south.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_64.png

I'm kind of wary of models that show a big warmup with the MJO looking like this:

GEFS.png
CANM.png
ECMF.png

Euro has been trying to nuke the wave all the way around the horn.

I know the mjo isn't the be all end all or end all be all or whatever, but it matters.

That said, the stratospheric does get back together, so we'll see.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-0830400.png
 
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NCSNOW said:
And under a power outage now till 5pm. LOL

That 10 inch plus euro op run just now,gonna make up for all this.
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We are under the same power outage. I hope that a bigger one doesn’t happen next week. We’ve seen sleet save us from a big ice storm on several occasions the past decade.
 
packfan98 said:
We are under the same power outage. I hope that a bigger one doesn’t happen next week. We’ve seen sleet save us from a big ice storm on several occasions the past decade.
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One of my kiddos is down on Holden Beach, 3 hour drive away, sun out 70 degrees.

These wedges are a hoot at times from a met standpoint
 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-078-161100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.HW.W.0001.250216T1100Z-250216T2100Z/
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
Including the cities of Rocky Mount, Raleigh, Durham, Roanoke
Rapids, Rougemont, Spring Hope, Smithfield, Scotland Neck,
Enfield, Knightdale, Henderson, Kittrell, Nashville, Princeville,
Creedmoor, Apex, Wilson, Franklinton, Oxford, Clayton, Tarboro,
Norlina, Cary, Louisburg, Warrenton, Goldsboro, Selma, and Wake
Forest
244 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected for northeast portions of central North Carolina.

* WHERE...Northeast portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive.

&&

$$




URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089-161100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WI.Y.0001.250216T1100Z-250216T2100Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Lillington, High Point, Wagram, Erwin,
Hope Mills, Mebane, Carrboro, Troy, Siler City, Dunn, Rockingham,
Carthage, Thomasville, Graham, Burlington, Roseboro, Wadesboro,
Southern Pines, Chapel Hill, Pinehurst, Albemarle, Pittsboro,
Asheboro, Roxboro, Raeford, Hillsborough, Angier, Sanford,
Ellerbe, Winston-Salem, Polkton, Clinton, Lexington, Camp
Mackall, Greensboro, Archdale, Spring Lake, Buies Creek,
Laurinburg, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen
244 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
expected for portions of central North Carolina.

* WHERE...Southern and western portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured outdoor objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and result in scattered power
outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

GIH
 
I fly out to Puerto Rico the morning of February 27, so I’d appreciate it if the weather is good for that one day, at least. 😂 I’m cool with a couple winter storms before, though.
 
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