• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Failboat February

As depicted here.... That donut over the great plains is fine and could lead to a bomb for us. What would be nice is to keep that feature, but trend the 50/50 so it's closer to Maine instead of off the Greenland coast, which would keep us colder and possibly pushes that donut to develop even further south.

We get that donut to cut off a little further south on this run with a little bit better confluence in New England and we would really be cooking with grease.

Screen Shot 2025-02-13 at 12.59.11 PM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
As depicted here.... That donut over the great plains is fine and could lead to a bomb for us. What would be nice is to keep that feature, but trend the 50/50 so it's closer to Maine instead of off the Greenland coast, which would keep us colder and possibly pushes that donut to develop even further south.

We get that donut to cut off a little further south on this run with a little bit better confluence in New England and we would really be cooking with grease.

View attachment 168707
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, EPS just keeps going the wrong direction with the 50/50. I know the northeast is licking their chops.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-1739448000-1740009600-1740009600-20.gif
 
rburrel2 said:
As depicted here.... That donut over the great plains is fine and could lead to a bomb for us. What would be nice is to keep that feature, but trend the 50/50 so it's closer to Maine instead of off the Greenland coast, which would keep us colder and possibly pushes that donut to develop even further south.

We get that donut to cut off a little further south on this run with a little bit better confluence in New England and we would really be cooking with grease.

View attachment 168707
Click to expand...
I agree that we want everything as much south and cold as we can get this time of the year. I do question having the 50/50 too far west. Wouldn't that potentially keep our wave too flat and not allow it to bomb out. I think a more ideal solution would be for the 50/50 to be a little further south to block our system from scooting out to fast. Let it spin and rot!
 
NCwx1992 said:
hands up for anyone who lived in NC during the insaneeee ice storm of 2002 *raises hand*
i was just a kid but that ---- was INTENSE. out of power for two weeks, hazardous to even try to walk around outside for days on end, let alone drive.
Click to expand...
My husband was safe and warm at Ft. Bragg getting ready for deployment to Iraq. I had two little kids at home. No power for 10 days. Thank goodness for gas logs and a sleeper sofa in the living room, and two 4WD or AWD vehicles at home that I was smart enough to fill up with gasoline before the storm hit.
 
Canadian Ensembles are solid too.
1740182400-LTf1b0D7IPc.png
 
1300m said:
Unfortunately, EPS just keeps going the wrong direction with the 50/50. I know the northeast is licking their chops.
View attachment 168708
Click to expand...
The S/W trending faster probably made this run still look good to the eye, but if we see a slowing trend with our S/W with the quicker 50/50 low, that’s no good. Unfortunately a lot to this to the eye looks like a legit ice event for someone and not pure snow. EPS looks very similar to its OP this suite
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The S/W trending faster probably made this run still look good to the eye, but if we see a slowing trend with our S/W with the quicker 50/50 low, that’s no good. Unfortunately a lot to this to the eye looks like a legit ice event for someone and not pure snow. EPS looks very similar to its OP this suite
Click to expand...
Seems like the wave just wants to dig despite it all. I'll take it as long as we can get it, but don't think this can keep going without a reversal above it.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-1739448000-1740096000-1740096000-20.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The S/W trending faster probably made this run still look good to the eye, but if we see a slowing trend with our S/W with the quicker 50/50 low, that’s no good. Unfortunately a lot to this to the eye looks like a legit ice event for someone and not pure snow. EPS looks very similar to its OP this suite
Click to expand...
With the blocking we have it's hard not to imagine this being a slower system, gotta make sure we don't slow down enough for heights to pump up out ahead the southern wave. Like you said before, delicate balance.
 
1300m said:
Unfortunately, EPS just keeps going the wrong direction with the 50/50. I know the northeast is licking their chops.
View attachment 168708
Click to expand...

For now the upper low over the lakes isn't moving north. This is trending to a full blown noreaster...which isn't necessairly great for RDU but is for places NW of us.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp-1739448000-1739944800-1739944800-20.gif
 
We don't handle success very well and this will be slop for much of central NC any way you cut it. But it's a nice pattern for frozen precip for alot of the east coast.

Would be surprised if the EPS doesn't have the hemispheric pattern mostly right at this range.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0139200.png
 
KyloG said:
This thing starts snowing in the plains day 4-5...by day 6 its in TN

View attachment 168714
Click to expand...


Look close. It starts snowing here hour 132. Which means tomorrow at High noon we will have crossed well inside the magical 120 hour mark. In layman's terms that's green light to start getting the bread and milk assuming all guidance is still on board. GFS excluded.
 
JHS said:
It has to be 2002 and yeah that one was rough. We got lucky with having our power off for only 2 days with it.
Click to expand...
That storm caused more damage to the neighborhood I live in in Southern Wake County than Fran did. The air smelled like Pinesol for days afterward because of the harm done to the pine trees.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
AIFS is somewhat meh, more marginal, the euro graphcast is a pretty sizable event for snow and ice
Click to expand...

This does seem more unique this year, that seemingly all the AI models are showing a winter storm affecting NC. I don't recall that happening yet. If we can get the AIFS on board, along with the rest, and the EPS, that's pretty solid. But I agree with you, we're likely on the southern end of this storm with alot of ice. Give me 2 inches of sleet, I'm fine with that, let's go. Give me something!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top