rburrel2
Member
This might be the best sign yet for people in eastern sections
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Tsappfrog20
Member
Why? Assuming you are being sarcastic because of how bad the model is?
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lexxnchloe
Member
Same ol same ol
Pops
Member
Nice!!!
CIPS analogs lining up pretty well with the overall model guidance and WPC.
lexxnchloe
Member
How? All i see is nothing
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Guys, hes being sarcastic.... bc the model is terrible
Tsappfrog20
Member
We’re only as good as the last model that ran. Never forget it
rburrel2
Member
cfs crushed us (foothills/piedmont) run after run up until the bitter end for the coastal crusher this year.
It’s also easily the worst deterministic model. Even Worse than the navgem and jma, imo. It’s basically good for nothing
It’s also easily the worst deterministic model. Even Worse than the navgem and jma, imo. It’s basically good for nothing
Starting to get that trowel look which is impressive for a mean at day 7, I assume there are some majors in the individual members. My profile pic was the Euro 700mb RH about 24hrs before I ended up in Spotsylvania Courthouse VA circa 2022. I may be heading up that way again next week if the situation warrants.
SnowNiner
Member
In the range of GSP discussion. Nice mention. But I'm not sure I appreciate their disrespect of the cold air quality. lol. Looks like they feel confident about a system taking a general Miller A track though. 
As of 253 PM Thursday: Next week starts off cold and dry behind
Sunday`s frontal passage as flow briefly becomes quasi-zonal. The
next system to watch will be Wednesday into Thursday as a southern
stream shortwave trough ejecting out of northern Mexico slides
across the Gulf Coast. Height falls overspreading a coastal
baroclinic zone will instigate surface cyclogenesis along coastal
Louisiana late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This low
will subsequently lift across the Florida panhandle and far southern
Georgia. The 12z suite of global guidance is in generally good
agreement on this pattern, but differ with regards to timing of the
wave, track of the surface low and quality of cold air that will be
in place ahead of time. Given the proximity of cold/dry air, winter
weather will be possible for at least the northern half of the
forecast area, but a lot of details still need to be ironed out,
especially with this potential event residing within the day 6-7
timeframe.
As of 253 PM Thursday: Next week starts off cold and dry behind
Sunday`s frontal passage as flow briefly becomes quasi-zonal. The
next system to watch will be Wednesday into Thursday as a southern
stream shortwave trough ejecting out of northern Mexico slides
across the Gulf Coast. Height falls overspreading a coastal
baroclinic zone will instigate surface cyclogenesis along coastal
Louisiana late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This low
will subsequently lift across the Florida panhandle and far southern
Georgia. The 12z suite of global guidance is in generally good
agreement on this pattern, but differ with regards to timing of the
wave, track of the surface low and quality of cold air that will be
in place ahead of time. Given the proximity of cold/dry air, winter
weather will be possible for at least the northern half of the
forecast area, but a lot of details still need to be ironed out,
especially with this potential event residing within the day 6-7
timeframe.
Not the worst look either. 50/50 low and trailing shortwave. Might turn into something in future runs 
rburrel2
Member
Icon has that energy in the southwest to make a pants nuker at hr120… would love to have seen how that played out.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Might be grabbing at straws here but looks like the Icon is keeping the low a bit further west at hr120 and the moisture reacts by extending further south
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Seems like the icon is moving away from the northern plains/montana pinch off 
Tsappfrog20
Member
albertwilsonjr
Member
iGRXY
Member
Yes. Means less chance for amplification out ahead and a cutter
Tsappfrog20
Member
Could of been like [mention]rburrel2 [/mention] said would of loved to see what it did later on
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like its trending to a further east/more consolidated PV lobe, nice imo
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SnowNiner
Member
yeah, that looks better too because it presses further down on the ridging in the east. If the lobe pinches off, I think it blows up and inflates ridging in the east causing badness. That's how I understand it anyway. Yesterday seemed like it was going the wrong way, today went back I believe IIRC.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I see some folks on another platform mentioning Feb 2014..... Nah, no chance...idk how to look up analogs ect but no chance totally different storm. Much Much stronger too imo
Tsappfrog20
Member
Honestly it is starting to remind me of February 2015
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Yeah I’m not seeing a February 2014 look to this. That storm had a strong CAD that extended as far south as southern GA and as west as eastern Alabama
Avalanche
Member
Please don’t let Psalms see this
albertwilsonjr
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
More dig but we need even more dig. I liked the 12Z icon path if more modeling will go that route.
weather bubba
Member
The Weather Channel is all in on a big snowfall for RDU with eight to nine inches showing up on their app for what it is worth. I think my chances of me hitting the lottery would be just about as good as that happening this far out but stranger things have happened.
broken025
Member
When Fro does
it’s good
I like this trend. Notice the feature that wants to pinch off is becoming less evident at doing it earlier and the TPV/eventual 50/50 is becoming more consolidated together 
rburrel2
Member
I’m also very intrigued by this gfs run, lol. Looks like it could be really good
50/50 low is slowing down on the American model 
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely a colder and more southern run so far.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Snow over Arkansas,north MS, western TN at hr 138
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broken025
Member
Some snow in NC this run. Let’s see what it does next..
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NCSNOW
Member
GFS way south with frozen
packfan98
Moderator
Gets a little disjointed with two areas of precip too close together.