CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yep, even parts of northern GA were near freezing or below. Looks like it got slightly colder as the day went on in NC too.
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yep, even parts of northern GA were near freezing or below. Looks like it got slightly colder as the day went on in NC too.
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The EPS has quite a significant signal as well for an ice storm… these are some legit high probs already. It’s been overzealous at times this year but this is a legit cold airmass nearby 
Also snow mean zoomed in
Also snow mean zoomed in
J1C1111
Member
Thank you. Your right. We need all the help we can get for the I-85 south and north up to the I-40 corridor folks. We just can't catch a break lately. So tough to watch us get missed to the north and to the south this year. Maybe this is the one. Appreciate it buddy.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That was the same vibe I got when looking at the individual CMC members. Several of the members had snow in VA/ice in NC overall.
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06z AI. It’s getting real close at H5 to a nuke with a late phase now. Nice light-mod snow event for many though in NC and TN and the more western part of the board 
MOGREPS looks good. No bad vibes for the board to wake up to later this AM 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
As of now, looks like a coastal low could be in play and hopefully a miller A style. Maybe by later this weekend, models will narrow things down to where the threats will be.
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Spire 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Toward the end of the 6z icon, the TPV was dropping south out of MN with perhaps a stronger push of cold air.
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Yeah the 06z was way better
Toward the end of the 6z icon, the TPV was dropping south out of MN with perhaps a stronger push of cold air.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
You can see the weekend system feed right into the 50/50 while the TPV lobe pivots SE over Canada and creates an elongated trough with the 50/50
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
**Lean on the ensembles right now, we’re still ~6-7 days out **
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GFS is pretty bad, but it looks like the GEFS has steadily been trending the right way the last couple of runs now 
Downeastnc
Member
About as good as you can get from RAH:
Monday onward: Generally expect cool, dry high pressure to dominate
Mon and Tue, with increasing uncertainty mid-week.
Six Mile Wx
Member
850 freezing line coming in further south at hr. 144 on the 6z Euro.
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Bigedd09
Member
6z GEFS snow mean dropped dramatically . WOW
Bigedd09
Member
I really do not like next weeks threat at all. With the exception of the Canadian, all major global models show snow for NC/VA border and north. Pretty rare to see them aligned like that. 6z GEFS decreased horrifically at 6z. Congrats Mid Atlantic.
tennessee storm
Member
Think we are trending toward amp apps runner. ….
Tarheelwx
Member
Ensembles following the operational's lead? I've heard so much this winter that "we need to be following the ensembles at this range" - a time at which the ensemble still showed the storm threat while we lost the operational. In the end, there would be no winter storm and we moved on. 2 things to note here: the ensembles really aren't much better than the operationals at longer range, and maybe it is because the operationals have gotten better at picking things up in the longer range that they haven't in the past. Not completely sold on these thoughts, but they have crossed my mind alot this and previous couple of winters.
TW
TW
rburrel2
Member
00z Pangu was a hammer. Freezing rain almost to the coast.
Bigedd09
Member
Hey at least the 0z EURO AI had some snow for the Carolina's
We might get too much pacific later in the month into early March and really screw up what could have been a nice pattern..... again
rburrel2
Member
The follow up "disturbance" seems like a much cleaner set up to score. Looks absolutely perfect on all the models except it's not strong enough to generate anything, and very little ensemble support. Sigh...
I'm not completely ruling out that thing sharpening up a tad though and coming to life in the next day or two.
I'm not completely ruling out that thing sharpening up a tad though and coming to life in the next day or two.
rburrel2
Member
06z AIFS go boom.
rburrel2
Member
We're only 150 hrs out on the 06z AIFS... usually when it starts locking in to some form of the final outcome. Gotta hope it's on to something here.
rburrel2
Member
One problem with the AIFS is it comes in so fast most of us would have boundary layer issues, b/c we haven't had time for CAD to build in. Just something to think about.
tennessee storm
Member
jetstream30
Member
I hope for better trends today. We have 7 days for the 20th system. Hard to believe we continue to be so close to a major southeast storm but timing has been awful.
I don't think a lot has changed with this threat. Stream interactions and amplitude will likely leave many chasing this down to the final 24 hours.
Tarheelwx
Member
AIFS was a bit on the drier side. Still a storm there, but not alot of heavy precip in the areas east of the mountains in NC.
TW
TW
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For this time of year? at this latitude? contained solely within my kitchen?
rburrel2
Member
I think we're about to get a good 06z MOGREPS run here. Looks colder with a further south storm track through hr 120.
packfan98
Moderator
What are we bummed about this morning? This looks pretty good for my area at least:
Bigedd09
Member
How was the 6Z Euro and EPS looking at the end of its run?
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Frankly, a top 3 run this winter.
rburrel2
Member
Things look incredible if you live from Greensboro to Richmond, imo. And they have looked good for a few days now. We’re gonna need some of the better potential outcomes to verify further South to score. (Like the euro ai, pangu, etc).
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
What’s it look like for the RDU crowd with the EPS?
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Not loving this trend for south of VA (at least the CLT to RDU east corridor).
It's a a fine line between too much and not enough suppression. Definitely going to need the northern stream to drive in at the right time to make this work for a lot of us.
06z EC AI shows how it could work, but it's going to be walking a tight rope to do it.
It's a a fine line between too much and not enough suppression. Definitely going to need the northern stream to drive in at the right time to make this work for a lot of us.
06z EC AI shows how it could work, but it's going to be walking a tight rope to do it.