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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
- Messages
- 1,196
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Ga and SC need some serious good trends heading to the weekend or we are toast on this one too...sadly
To hell with this cold rain!
To hell with this cold rain!
GEFS is trying to take some steps towards the 18z Euro at D6 in some regards, but lifting the TPV out results in lack of suppression.
SnowNiner
Member
You would think with that much blocking, as strong at he -AO is, we could get reversal of that trend. But that vortex has been scootin away for the last few days on the models. If it held on we'd be getting great ensemble means by now I think.
Kinda the same problem we had for today and yesterday's storm. Not enough TPV press to flatten the SE ridging.
Safe to say the EPS looks far far better than the GEFS. The CMCE is kinda in between at H5 
NCSNOW
Member
Aint nobody paid their dues on the you got screwed credit card like I 85 crowd. 30 non stop hours of rain sitting at 32.5-34 degrees. A blank check while Gulf Coast racked up. Not to mention a BL screw job on storm before that.
Its time!!
Its time!!
Sheesh. That period after is a straight spring cancel. Tons of EC troughing 
Yeh even for someone that lives in the total screw zone like Columbia, I have to admit it’s the 85 corridors time to shine. GSP, Asheville, Charlotte to Raleigh. Hope y’all can get a big one.
Can we 
At D6, EPS definitely more suppressive than GEFS. We've got to hold that 50/50 low if we're going to score.
JB, likes UKMET, 18z Euro, and JMA. said he will not change until Monday if need be. said he likes them because that's what he believes will happen.
18z EC AI with a gorgeous slp sweep.
Tsappfrog20
Member
looks like a swing and a miss
Absolutely. High pressure anchored in through the duration with a surface low track into the Gulf (of America?!) and up the Gulf Stream. If we could hold that look, there's room to grow to something bigger for much of the Carolinas back into GA IMO.
Interesting trends on EC AI. Definitely holding the TPV / more suppression longer. I like this direction. If we get unlucky and this continues, it could end up too flat, but it could also end up in a more suppressed, late blooming miller a.
Verbatim, I think it works for us but we are on the N/W periphery. It’s a bigger storm further east. But it’s a good setup either way.
Verbatim it's an eastern NC special, but we had to trend away from the look being advertised or us south of VA were going to be in trouble IMO. In the middle of a big trend the past 5 runs so we'll have to see where we land.
Avalanche
Member
Ideally I think we’d like it to bomb a tad sooner but we’ve seen worse for sure
SnowNiner
Member
I don't think it's that cold, we need a bit more suppression. Maybe the blocking will pump stronger and we can get those lighter greens into SC.
Could be a later bloomer like January 2000.
(In all seriousness, I’m not sure this has any parallels with that setup lol.)
Grid loaded 
The matches I’ve been seeing is comparable to the bigger march ones historically at H5 featuring the 50/50 & shortwave pretty close by, probably because late season has shorter wavelengths in general and this look is a staple of shortened wavelengths
How about loading that grid for my area as well Cary, NC. Since Feb 20th is my birthday it would make a great 65th birthday present lol
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I like the AI over the reg Euro here. Better with the 50/50 low and lower heights in the SE. And it doesn't have the TPV appendage poking back into Montana - that could or would eventually lead to a sfc low track that is too far north. The reg Euro wants to go blue norther on us with high pressure pushing S into TX....AI keeps it planted over Manitoba into Chicago as you mentioned (better).
SnowNiner
Member
Surprisingly no real big dogs on there. Wonder why.
Would rather have a lot of smaller-moderate hits vs a handful of big dogs… that’s what has made the EPS over inflated the past setups was the depiction of unrealistic big dogs
Exactly. Prefer a good spread for better believability
WolfpackHomer91
Member
-- used to say take off the highest and the lowest and then take w/e the mean is for even more accurate reading. Ik it doesn’t matter at this point lol
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Yeah, that can really skew these means and give a deceptive look. In a 50-member ensemble, if 10 show 10” and 40 show 0”, you get a 2” mean which seems “decent” but it’s basically showing an 80% chance of nothing. Compare that to 40 members showing 2.5” and 10 showing nothing, you have an 80% “chance” at something, which is really a better mean for snow chances, IMO.
Icon notably worse than 12z. Don’t even look at it
I had to look at it so I’ll mark you suffer too
12z
00z
Moved a state north
I had to look at it so I’ll mark you suffer too
12z
00z
Moved a state north
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SnowNiner
Member
True, but this is late Feb, it’s time to go big. Keep a lot of smaller events but throw in a few big dogs to let me know it’s possible!
Icon looks like a category 5 shitcane. Completely went GFS
No prob...hardly ever look at the Icon
NCSNOW
Member
Well its rubber match time. The next 4 - 12hour cycles will tell the tale. Hopefully the trends go in our favor. Germans didnt exactly get us out of the gate good.