Pattern Failboat February

[superjames1992]

Icon notably worse than 12z. Don’t even look at it

I had to look at it so I’ll mark you suffer too


12zView attachment 168593
00zView attachment 168594

Moved a state north

Bet the streak. NoVA gets slammed again!!!

But in all seriousness, it’s one run of a (crappy) op model. Of course, I’d be lying if I wouldn’t have been happy if it showed a big snowstorm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon pinches it off and unloads garbage juice over the SE aka cold rain. We need to get away from the pinching off option. Unfortunately our track record of donuts ruining setups have a notable past, and northern stream in general not playing nice

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Icon pinches it off and unloads garbage juice over the SE aka cold rain. We need to get away from the pinching off option. Unfortunately our track record of donuts ruining setups have a notable past, and northern stream in general not playing nice

Low track wasn’t even bad.. We got work to do

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

A hot Miller A would be a fitting way to end the season

 

[superjames1992]

Low track wasn’t even bad.. We got work to do View attachment 168597

Ugh, that scenario is more depressing than a cutter.

 

[hky1894]

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I don’t hate this GFS run yet but I’ll give it a few more frames

 

[Rain Cold]

I don’t hate this GFS run yet but I’ll give it a few more frames

You'll hate it in about 15 minutes

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You'll hate it in about 15 minutes

The term “wasteful” comes to mind.

1052 high with the remnants of a 50/50 low jamming the flow and still getting rain would be a 10/10 on the kick-in-the-nuts scale

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC so far looks like dog s*** at H5

 

[NCSNOW]

You'll hate it in about 15 minutes

Missed yesterday storm by 60 miles. Good news on 0z gfs, ive got travel distance down to about 39 miles. Quicker chase. Winning. Another 32.5 degree rain inbound.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CAE flizzard

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CAE flizzardView attachment 168599View attachment 168600

paging @Meteorologist1999

 

[KyloG]

CMC so far looks like dog s*** at H5

This isn’t good?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This isn’t good?

View attachment 168601

I’d imagine the northern stream wave wanting to hold back/pinch off is no bueno. What made the icon so bad

 

[NCSNOW]

Cmc will still be a good hit northern NC this run. But its fools Gold

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gawd..It’s gross that setups like this can even make it rain anywhere north of Cancun Mexico

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh

 

[NCSNOW]

.

 

[1300m]

I’d imagine the northern stream wave wanting to hold back/pinch off is no bueno. What made the icon so bad

We're in the middle of a trend with things retrograding. Can we back up the TPV in tandem with our trailing energy may end up being the question. This is yet another example of why it is just so pointless to look at ops way out.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s not 12z but we still technically have the worlds worst model on our side for another 12 hours. It only needed a 1056 high dropping in to make it sleet at Fro’s house this run so I think we’re good

 

[NCSNOW]

These PV collapses. When was the last time we had one and scored central nc back to upstate?

 

[Rain Cold]

I GEMs

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I GEMs

View attachment 168606

Kinda tried to do a thing there after I bad mouthed it

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Canadian goes on to be a substantial nor’easter bombing out @ 975 SE of Boston

Looks like it hits the 40/70 benchmark

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Big increase on the gefs

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

That's a solid number of hits. Some ice storms in there as well

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro looks like it might go full apps runner

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Euro looks like it might go full apps runner

Let me guess ….”Northern stream too involved” ?


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[Myfrotho704_]

Let me guess ….”Northern stream too involved” ?


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[Myfrotho704_]

EPS might be cooking. Looks better then the OP euro so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

In fact the eps looks far better then its OP. Kinda surprising

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Best eps run yet

 

[J1C1111]

Best eps run yet View attachment 168616

Right. I just seen my totals bumped up 1-3 inches. Let's keep the good trends going. One has to work out for us eventually. Why not this be the one.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

It was good to see the GEFS trend better as well


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Fro, how did the CMC ensemble turn out?


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[SegTindoPro]

Right. I just seen my totals bumped up 1-3 inches. Let's keep the good trends going. One has to work out for us eventually. Why not this be the one.

I’m pulling for y’all to get something after the gulf coast ------- y’all over but know this the models are probably gonna downtrend


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[SegTindoPro]

I’m pulling for y’all to get something after the gulf coast ------- y’all over but know this the models are probably gonna downtrend


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*Knowing


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[Myfrotho704_]

Fro, how did the CMC ensemble turn out?


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[Myfrotho704_]

It’s one thing to have a storm signal, it’s another thing to have mean temps well below freezing on a ens mean during a winter storm, morning or afternoon. Just beautiful