• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Failboat February

griteater said:
GFS zoomed in

View attachment 168422
Click to expand...
Seems like all models dropped the TPV further south which dropped and height field and induced a better cold feed, but something I’m starting to see as an issue is the wave itself and how it progresses. Can’t have a big bowling ball in the OH valley, rather have the south stream be more alone or at least a weaker N/S/stronger S/S wave.
 
To me, these runs tonight lend credence that someone in climo favored areas in NC is going to get smoked. As much as I don’t believe the southern hits, I like to see them. I do believe this is a step down system so a hit well south of DC makes sense to me. How far south though? Time will tell
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Upon further inspection, GEFS wasn’t great but it wasn’t nothing
Click to expand...

fedf86c28932716a62e451219ca34fbc.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SegTindoPro said:
What do you mean losing attitude? Is it trending south?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Key word is latitude.

I say with a bit of an attitude. But I’d be a hypocrite if I claimed I’ve never misread something before. 😉

Yes. South. As well as dying/shearing out.
 
Not really taking it too seriously right now, but I think the energy that could play in for a long duration overrunning event is probably still there on the 6z GFS near the 20th, but ends up buried.
 
Models have really went gangbusters with the Arctic block moving South and connecting with the West coast ridge. That action keeps pushing the initial PV further south and east. Lays the foundation for a southern storm track. After that, it will all depend on how the pacific wave interacts with any trailing polar lobe to determine what happens. The 00z GFS was close to a best case scenario for that interaction I think.
 
Bigedd09 said:
That is what we said about the NOLA and Florida storm. To an extent, suppression is not great lol
Click to expand...

Anytime we get a big cold press this is possible. If HP is gonna be that strong…. The low is gonna have to be stronger to get up n over it, some little 1005- 1017 Loser isn’t gonna cut it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
rburrel2 said:
Models have really went gangbusters with the Arctic block moving South and connecting with the West coast ridge. That action keeps pushing the initial PV further south and east. Lays the foundation for a southern storm track. After that, it will all depend on how the pacific wave interacts with any trailing polar lobe to determine what happens. The 00z GFS was close to a best case scenario for that interaction I think.
Click to expand...
What u going get. Worried about. It being over amped …. Is going be suppression city. Rather see an over amped storm any day , especially for my location . And for most on this board. Go big or go home
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Anytime we get a big cold press this is possible. If HP is gonna be that strong…. The low is gonna have to be stronger to get up n over it, some little 1005- 1017 Loser isn’t gonna cut it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Not really.

Suppression and shearing are two different things.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Still no one wants some garbage little overrunning event. Amp it up, if it screws us it screws us .... I will take my chances with that than watching Coastal Plain get anything else and miss to my east
Click to expand...

Agreed! Raleigh doesn't do big events but I would rather west of 85 get a foot then Raleigh get a 1" car topper.
 
rburrel2 said:
Models have really went gangbusters with the Arctic block moving South and connecting with the West coast ridge. That action keeps pushing the initial PV further south and east. Lays the foundation for a southern storm track. After that, it will all depend on how the pacific wave interacts with any trailing polar lobe to determine what happens. The 00z GFS was close to a best case scenario for that interaction I think.
Click to expand...

If we lose another storm to the gulf coast, I don’t think I’ll be able to bear it. Suppression, shearing is real this year.
 
Could we see a repeat of a few weeks ago where the bulk of the storm stays south? Us east of the mountains in NC are ready for a Big Dog.
 
The overall array of outcomes from this look is pretty widegfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-9923200.png

Just for mby I could easily draw up 72 and thunderstorms, 22 and heavy snow, 42 and cloudy with snow to my south from this image. I say this to say we are likely going to see some wild swings over the next 2 or 3 days on the models.

I also wouldn't tbe too terribly surprised if there is another threat or 2 after this one. This pattern may try to go pretty hard for 2-3 weeks before it starts fading away and is likely gone 3/15-20
 
Last edited:
SD said:
The overall array of outcomes from this look is pretty wideView attachment 168449

Just for mby I could easily draw up 72 and thunderstorms, 22 and heavy snow, 42 and cloudy with snow to my south easily from this image. I say this to say we are likely going to see some wild swings over the next 2 or 3 days on the models.

I also wouldn't tbe too terribly surprised if there is another threat or 2 after this one. This pattern may try to go pretty hard for 2-3 weeks before it starts fading away and is likely gone 3/15-20
Click to expand...

We’re again at the point where we need the perfect balance of dig, phase, and amp to bring in energy, qpf but keep the storm south. Can’t be too much or too little. Agree everything is still on the table. Amped rain storm or whiff.

That’s why the ensembles are generally pretty sad imo, just a mixed bag of options.
 
SnowNiner said:
We’re again at the point where we need the perfect balance of dig, phase, and amp to bring in energy, qpf but keep the storm south. Can’t be too much or too little. Agree everything is still on the table. Amped rain storm or whiff.

That’s why the ensembles are generally pretty sad imo, just a mixed bag of options.
Click to expand...
We're in a kind of a regime where there are going to be multiple opportunities. Around here, that's helpful since it's so hard to put things together the right way.

Anyway, full send on winter through mid-March. By then, the background likely becomes unfavorable. Plus, we'll be fighting modern climo.
 
Rain Cold said:
We're in a kind of a regime where there are going to be multiple opportunities. Around here, that's helpful since it's so hard to put things together the right way.

Anyway, full send on winter through mid-March. By then, the background likely becomes unfavorable. Plus, we'll be fighting modern climo.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I’m hoping for the earliest threats possible, as the later we go, into March, the colder than normal air needed and the harder it is imo.

Great to be in the game this late though!. It’s literally been a decade.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Still no one wants some garbage little overrunning event. Amp it up, if it screws us it screws us .... I will take my chances with that than watching Coastal Plain get anything else and miss to my east
Click to expand...

Hey some of us would be rather pleased with 2-4” instead of another two inches of rain.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top