Bigedd09
Member
Canadian looks like it may get shredded
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Now turn the corner for lick 
one time 
one time 
Brandon10
Member
This surface looks a lot like the January 20-22 Storm at this hour.....
CMC is a fire ants exploder
Bigedd09
Member
NVM
Oh my…..
Tsappfrog20
Member
Oh Canada!!!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lizard Lick massacre 
Bigedd09
Member
Is it okay to pretend the GFS doesn't exist?
LickWx
Member
Dont go kissin no Pangu's now for you catch somin new
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CMC has a major winter storm, wow!
They’ll have to start the cloud seeding early after this run
What a beautiful wave
What a beautiful wave
rburrel2
Member
CMC shows what can happen if we leave the southern wave alone and let it cook.
rburrel2
Member
FWIW, the 12z Ukmet on the hard to see 144hr panel looks a lot like the Icon.
Edit: Actually think this looks very good?? Definitely not gonna be amped up.
Edit: Actually think this looks very good?? Definitely not gonna be amped up.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
OK, if that CMC run actually verifies (just found it myself), I will be perfectly fine with missing out on the next few winters.
That's one heck of a sleet storm.
It's too bad the CMC has been bad this winter, but I see the difficulty in what's upcoming for the models on the GFS too.
That's one heck of a sleet storm.
It's too bad the CMC has been bad this winter, but I see the difficulty in what's upcoming for the models on the GFS too.
WNC can’t miss here. Go ahead and book your Airbnb
Still gets some snow into NC.
Looks like a cold airmass. Lest we forget how the CMC nailed that down early with the gulf storm last month. It said someone would get a foot with ample moisture while everyone else was scraping the coast with an inch or two. Obviously a more northward track is favored here but the potential is big for some.
It’s cold bias can help it at times
It’s cold bias can help it at times
Yeah, + it’s Feb so the baro zone is gonna be favored further north
The way the Canadian lets that cold settle out front before sending it is a thing of beauty. When does that ever actually happen around here? Never?
Latest GFS basically reflects what the GEFS has been showing the last few runs. The last few GFS runs have not been supported by the GEFS. As we know, they normally follow one another.
Southern Track
Member
‘88 and ‘11
Caesar
Member
FWIW the Canadian hardly made an appearance in the thread for this current system. Must not have shown us what we wanted to see. So to see a hit like this is at least somewhat positive, right?
wow
Member
The last model I want holding on to this storm is the Canadian.
CMC too far south imo. I never trust the CMC not very good imo.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I do this most days
Tsappfrog20
Member
It will be interesting to see which road the Euro goes down
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LOL the canadian gives FAY 8" of sleet.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's where the UKMET ended up.
rburrel2
Member
Ukmet was about to go boom...
Tsappfrog20
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
IK I could look, but I remember Matthew East used to mention alot about UK was a precursor for the next EURO , would be cool to see that still be a thing. UK looks like it woulda been atleast decent. TY @packfan98Here's where the UKMET ended up.
This potential storm is roughly 8 days out. In my view, all you can do at this stage is take a blend of all models and watch the trends. It’s highly unlikely that any one model is good enough to beat the blend. Definitive statements on the end result would be premature (to say the least). But again, getting the high pressure and cold air in place ahead of time, with the storm track pressed far enough south, is the most important piece to get right at this point IMO
wow
Member
I'm checking in but definitely more guarded. Good to see most models have a big one at least once so far. Certainly a fair chance at this stage.
rburrel2
Member
Just to recap 12z runs:
Hammer jobs:
Icon: Major hit for many, another wave possibly coming post hr180.
CMC: Nuclear bomb for many.
CMCE: 1.5-2 inch snow means for most people. Pretty good
Ukmet: Have to extrapolate post hr 168, but looks like a major hit incoming for most.
Misses:
GFS: Almost a complete whiff, some ice for Northern NC.
GEFS: Pretty ugly
Hammer jobs:
Icon: Major hit for many, another wave possibly coming post hr180.
CMC: Nuclear bomb for many.
CMCE: 1.5-2 inch snow means for most people. Pretty good
Ukmet: Have to extrapolate post hr 168, but looks like a major hit incoming for most.
Misses:
GFS: Almost a complete whiff, some ice for Northern NC.
GEFS: Pretty ugly
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Gefs is meh. Leaves a donut behind to interact with the weak SS and runs the setup. The cmce is nice and is leaving the southern wave alone more
Snowlover34
Member
I know the canadian has been awful this winter but whatever it’s smoking on count me in jesus