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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Tsappfrog20
Member
Let’s see what the Icon cooks up!!
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rburrel2
Member
The block just keeps trending stronger and further south pushing the PV in to the great lakes now... wild. Euro AI still wants to keep it much further north though. It's all alone with that depiction.
rburrel2
Member
Worth noting that the coldest temps in the northern hemisphere will be located under that PV over the great lakes.
No storm if the cold press keeps pushing further south. Maybe another coastal snow but nothing much Inland.
Bigedd09
Member
ICON gonna be close
rburrel2
Member
Looks like lots of sleet/freezing rain as well for CAD regions.
Bigedd09
Member
Warm Bias we toss
Reinforcements were coming back West...
Icon looks ok 
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ICON looks solid for NC around the 19th. Very good cold press at 850mb and a decent reflection in the Gulf of America.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not too bad look overall
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It was likely going to do something similar to the GFS and load it up again out West.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Decent storm for NC with snow to the north/ice south
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rburrel2
Member
This thing can go two ways...
1. If we get a stronger more detached northern stream PV lobe for our storm... it will warm us in the mid-levels and make it harder to snow... but if that thing detaches a little more and slows down... we could see a historic CAD event. If the ICON had went in this direction a little more that's what would have happened
2. If we trend to weaker/more strung out trailling PV... it really helps the chances for the southern stream wave to lay down a nice stripe of snow.
The Icon was sort of in between those two solutions... but those solutions are both made possible by the impressive block/far south PV push it has out ahead of the storm. If we get a more Euro AI like cold push/PV swing through... then both of the above options could be not could enough/mostly a rain storm.
So long story short... we need to root for the very far south PV push in the day 5/6 timeframe, like the ICON/Euro/GFS are showing. And hope the Euro AI is wrong. That's the biggest key to a big winter storm being possible.
1. If we get a stronger more detached northern stream PV lobe for our storm... it will warm us in the mid-levels and make it harder to snow... but if that thing detaches a little more and slows down... we could see a historic CAD event. If the ICON had went in this direction a little more that's what would have happened
2. If we trend to weaker/more strung out trailling PV... it really helps the chances for the southern stream wave to lay down a nice stripe of snow.
The Icon was sort of in between those two solutions... but those solutions are both made possible by the impressive block/far south PV push it has out ahead of the storm. If we get a more Euro AI like cold push/PV swing through... then both of the above options could be not could enough/mostly a rain storm.
So long story short... we need to root for the very far south PV push in the day 5/6 timeframe, like the ICON/Euro/GFS are showing. And hope the Euro AI is wrong. That's the biggest key to a big winter storm being possible.
rburrel2
Member
Dang yea look at hr 180 on the 500mb vort map... ICON may have been going for a historic monster after that first wave of precip.
rburrel2
Member
This looks like a biblical storm brewing for somebody back over Texas!?!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Sure would be nice to see the output to follow if those would Kiss there over TX
rburrel2
Member
Something is gonna crank behind that initial PV, imo. Just a matter of when and how much cold air is available when it arrives.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Let’s See what the good ole GFS has to say….
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Agree burrel - getting the PV south, and accordingly, the storm track south, is the most important piece to get right before we can dig into storm strength & timing
Growing szn cancel 
Bigedd09
Member
Not a fan of the GFS so far
Ehh not impressed mostly a rainstorm
The year of northern stream ruining winter storm setups 
Bigedd09
Member
A nice soaking 35-40 degree rain storm 12z Wednesday on the GFS. Nice.
Bigedd09
Member
Gonna be the same dang areas of the Mid Atlantic. Been epic for them this year
The gfs look isn't that bad just need a colder preceding air mass.
Bigedd09
Member
EURO AI of course gonna score a W here but couldn't score a W when it showed a major winter storm. SMH
All of that cold nearby what a waste.
It's over now. Time for winter 25-26 which was already declared over here as well
Incoming 
Super casual sprawling 1048 with a low in the gulf
CMC looks good so far