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Pattern Failboat February

The end of February into early March has a higher than normal chance of delivering a major east coast winter storm.

A very active pattern continues, with the STJ coming alive. I know everybody wants something different, but there's going to be plenty of cold air around along with plenty of energy.

Phasing of the two streams is likely at some point before mid-March, and the pattern should feature blocking and plenty of cold air. The MJO won't likely be into P4 before mid-March. That is not a guarantee, but it's better than recent years, where we've lived in P4-6 during winter.

Winter is far, far from over.

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