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Pattern Failboat February

rburrel2 said:
12z Ukmet has the table setter PV way far south.

Edit: This was actually the 00z run. 12z looks good too though.

View attachment 168332
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Canadian has this the furthest west of other 12z guidance so far.
Easy to see what we need to be rooting for.
Should be pretty much settled by this Friday/Saturday in model world as that will be the 120 mark. Then we can figure out the back yard details. Thats when Ill show up to the table with my poker chips.
 
SnowNiner said:
Ok what’s the deal with these stormvista maps? There’s no way the gefs is showing a 6 inch snow mean north of clt.

Love seeing it but never seen that high of a mean I don’t think ever….much less 9 days before a storm.
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We’ve been through this how many times…grain of salt…look at the trends not amounts. I’m going to start taking off the amounts to help you out.
 
KyloG said:
We’ve been through this how many times…grain of salt…look at the trends not amounts. I’m going to start taking off the amounts to help you out.
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Must have missed it sorry. Just keep posting them dgex maps and I’ll create a new algorithm.
 
What I think you're seeing with the GEFS trends as well as the globals showing more hits... is the fruit of such a good overall 5h pattern depiction.

Things are gonna want to move towards a southern winter storm with the large-scale pattern being advertised. Does that mean we get a major storm? Of course not, but it definitely favors it.

It's sorta the opposite a lot of the times when we get a storm signal, but the overall forecasted pattern isn't great. In those situations you usually see "trends" going in the wrong direction as we get closer in time.
 
KyloG said:
GEFS/EPS on top of each other day 7-8

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WOW!! very exciting. .... 8 days out and roughly a 3-6" Mean on Both suite ensembles. @1300m IF we make it to Thursday 18Z runs still with this or better Think weve got something ? Im trying to temper myself until then bc we will be in that day 6 range you mentioned
 
Need to be careful that northern stream confluence tail can easily string/shear out this setup. It can also dump into the system at the right time and create a monster. The right peices are here in this setup though. IMG_5208.gif
Also a pretty big late bloomer/miller A look in late Feb on the EPSIMG_5212.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Need to be careful that northern stream confluence tail can easily string/shear out this setup. It can also dump into the system at the right time and create a monster. The right peices are here in this setup though. View attachment 168359
Also a pretty big late bloomer/miller A look in late Feb on the EPSView attachment 168360
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Like @Rain Cold has said, unfortunately that N Stream has been the uh oh all winter.... Would be cool to create a phased bomb, but I feel just leaving it alone gives us a better shot id imagine
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
WOW!! very exciting. .... 8 days out and roughly a 3-6" Mean on Both suite ensembles. @1300m IF we make it to Thursday 18Z runs still with this or better Think weve got something ? Im trying to temper myself until then bc we will be in that day 6 range you mentioned
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He doesn't even bother to roll the car window down and sniff it until HOUR 120 ( 5 DAY MARK)
 
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