Pattern Failboat February

[rburrel2]

If that storm entering the West coast leads to a cutter for us. Something ain't right. lol

I have a hard time believing that'll happen.

 

[Avalanche]

We're getting nuked on that run, IMO.

It's not like we are torching before it arrives. 850-925s would be below freezing when saturation occurs, not factoring in the cold press that's pushing in.

 

[Billypg70]

Yeah it’s late arriving cold. Even with the flat icon, you can see it’s not really pumping heights out front, it’s just late to the party. Higher border elevations would do fine. We would not.

Higher border elevations ???
North of 85 or North of 40?

 

[tennessee storm]

You wouldn't want that to amp up anymore. That is a nice strong high but it's way off to the NW.

End up cutting west of the apps or along the spine of it

 

[Mitch West]

GFS definitely looking better.

 

[tennessee storm]

GFS definitely looking better.View attachment 168320

Setting up for mid south classic there. See what Happens next few frames

 

[CltNative90]

GFS definitely looking better.View attachment 168320

Northern wave coming in much faster this run. Hopefully won’t give it room to cut.

 

[Bigedd09]

GFS definitely looking better.View attachment 168320

Stronger coldf press out in front

 

[tennessee storm]

Northern wave coming in much faster this run. Hopefully won’t give it room to cut.

All depends if and were phases at

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Good lord

 

[Oconeexman]

If that storm entering the West coast leads to a cutter for us. Something ain't right. lol

I have a hard time believing that'll happen.

View attachment 168319

gonna give you a new name tag: Kissofdeath!
lol weve had so many goood set ups this winter and have found every possible way to fail its insane. To say we are due is an understatement

 

[Bigedd09]

Cutter.

 

[KyloG]

Out here in fantasy land but we don't want that upper low west of Hudson Bay

 

[rburrel2]

Our potential storm wave gets hung back in the Southwest and interacts with the next PV lobe dropping down... not good for us, though could lead to a strong wedge event.

We need the storm wave to come out behind the first PV lobe that delivers our cold, like the Icon shows.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Cutter.

Yea

 

[tennessee storm]

Our potential storm wave gets hung back in the Southwest and interacts with the next PV lobe dropping down... not good for us, though could lead to a strong wedge event.

We need the storm wave to come out behind the first PV lobe that delivers our cold, like the Icon shows.

Se ridge in play hinder things further east. For now

 

[NCSNOW]

What are 8 days from start time now

Out here in fantasy land but we don't want that upper low west of Hudson Bay

View attachment 168322

Funny how they all evolve and end up in that same spot as we start tracking and getting closer. Wash Rinse Repeat

 

[rburrel2]

All in all, a pretty good GFS run. The initial PV lobe trended further south/colder. That's what we need. The evolution of the storm wave is still highly TBD. But we need the cold here in the first place to even have a chance.

 

[Bigedd09]

Tennessee rains while Carolina's get a winter storm. Love it

 

[Oconeexman]

 

[Mitch West]

Cold air supply just says ight imma head out as soon as moisture comes in.

 

[tennessee storm]

Pattern moving forward to me. Looking more Nina classic looking with active pacific jet off west coast and some for of S E. Ridging

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 168325

That’s after it drops a major CAD winter event.

 

[KyloG]

CMC littler further east then the GFS...let's see

 

[Bigedd09]

Cold air supply just says ight imma head out as soon as moisture comes in.

You surprised? Lol

 

[NCSNOW]

Lovely: GFS

 

[Oconeexman]

CMC bout to be a CAD bomb too

 

[NCSNOW]

Yep Incoming Canadian

 

[rburrel2]

CMC littler further east then the GFS...let's see

View attachment 168326

Looks like the timing of the southern wave is similar to the Icon. It just has an unfortunately place PV lobe pinched off over Minnesota. We need the CMC/ICON progression of the southern wave and a GFS/ICON progression of the Polar stuff.

 

[Mitch West]

 

[NCSNOW]

Inland Runner that run

 

[Bigedd09]

View attachment 168330

It is allergic to snow in charlotte

 

[lexxnchloe]

That’s after it drops a major CAD winter event.

I hope there is a SE trend so most of NC gets a legit storm.

 

[SWVAWX]

Another cutter. Joy. Not.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I strongly approve of what the Canadian just did and fits my initial thoughts on a rain snow setup with climo locations in WNC highly favored

Ice storm highly unlikely no matter how many times fantasy runs want to show it

 

[rburrel2]

12z Ukmet has the table setter PV way far south.

Edit: This was actually the 00z run. 12z looks good too though.

 

[rburrel2]

Here's the 12z Ukmet:

Looks like it favors a slider with little to no northern stream involvement, similar to the ICON... though the ukmet isn't nearly as cold out in front.

 

[SD]

The icon is what you want. No phase, no amp, none of the other crap that gets chanted ad nauseum here before a system. Just the icon

 

[NCSNOW]

I strongly approve of what the Canadian just did and fits my initial thoughts on a rain snow setup with climo locations in WNC highly favored

Ice storm highly unlikely no matter how many times fantasy runs want to show it

Agree. It will be a heavy west Mashed Potatoe style Flakes dumpage for some lucky ones. We to late in year for powder below 3000 feet. My biggest snow was a 17.5 on Feb 28th. #2 was a 15 on March 7thish. I could use another 15+ incher to make up for the 0,0,2 over the past 2 and half winters. Time for a snapback on the rubber band.