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Pattern Failboat February

WolfpackHomer91 said:
WOW!! very exciting. .... 8 days out and roughly a 3-6" Mean on Both suite ensembles. @1300m IF we make it to Thursday 18Z runs still with this or better Think weve got something ? Im trying to temper myself until then bc we will be in that day 6 range you mentioned
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Definitely like this general time period. Aligns with MJO forcing and analogs and is a good look overall. If we can roll this H5 look -- or better -- inside D6 with continued positive trends, we might have something.
 
Mitch West said:
OP Euro basically says the storm system next week is just opportunity #1 for some on here. Looks like the look is there for more opportunities the final days of the month.
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For south and east of the Southern Apps, in quick and easy terms, I'm viewing our current pattern as a 5 on a scale from 1 to 10 (not WAY off as it is currently snowing in VA). I would view Feb 20 to 28 as a 7.5

El Nino like / MJO Phase 8-1-2 like split flow with 3-4 waves hitting the west coast and moving ESE. Just got to get enough of a flow-blocking setup over the northeast to keep the storm track south as the waves move east

Si6ZkpO.gif



Credit to the MJO - it's been doing its job this winter...

mof7Yfx.png


QockDNs.png
 
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griteater said:
For south and east of the Southern Apps, in quick and easy terms, I'm viewing our current pattern as a 5 on a scale from 1 to 10 (not WAY off as it is currently snowing in VA). I would view Feb 20 to 28 as a 7.5

El Nino like / MJO Phase 8-1-2 like split flow with 3-4 ways hitting the west coast and moving ESE. Just got to get enough of a flow-blocking setup over the northeast to keep the storm track south as the waves move east

Si6ZkpO.gif



Credit to the MJO - it's been doing its job this winter...

mof7Yfx.png


QockDNs.png
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It really has been man. The progression has matched up well so far this Winter with what has actually occurred. Example being what happened last month.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
@SnowNiner this is gonna hit look at that hole over Iredell
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It sure looks like this has a shot. Has all the markers, robust west based blocking with a 50/50 low, western ridging, artic cold air nearby. AND an active STJ we haven’t had all year.

Only fly I think is the western ridge a bit too far west, making a bit of a SE ridge we have to flatten. May be the best look we’ve gotten this year though.
 
SnowNiner said:
It sure looks like this has a shot. Has all the markers, robust west based blocking with a 50/50 low, western ridging, artic cold air nearby. AND an active STJ we haven’t had all year.

Only fly I think is the western ridge a bit too far west, making a bit of a SE ridge we have to flatten. May be the best look we’ve gotten this year though.
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IF SE Ridge has ANY opportunity to be in play it absolutely will. There is no flattening it imo, its either there and gonna reward TN/KY/WV/VA again or it isnt but i dont think theres any chance it would actually be involved but in a way We needed ....again jmo
 
Stevo24 said:
These maps are rarely wrong. You can pretty much take this to the bank and quit model watching for this timeframe if you are out of this circle.
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Most times. But BS dude come on … you’ve gotta be trolling at this point. They were 300 miles off on the Gulfcoast thing in Jan. Plus they nailed this one so odds are they won’t go 2/2


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Most times. But BS dude come on … you’ve gotta be trolling at this point. They were 300 miles off on the Gulfcoast thing in Jan. Plus they nailed this one so odds are they won’t go 2/2


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Actually can someone pull that one up from the gulf storm I’d like to see that.
 
Stormdoc said:
It has been awhile seen we have had a good 18Z happy hour!
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Interested in tonight's runs for sure. However, I still hear 1300m in the back of my mind telling me not to even look at the models this far out..... How long before we hit the 120h mark?.......... Yeah, we got a few days before we can get invested in this one.
 
I always pencil in the 20th of February as the end of realistic winter storm chances for MBY. And right on queue, the 20th time frame keeps hope alive.

Given the MJO indices, the expanding late-winter N. American snowpack, and the outstanding looks on the mid and long-range ensembles, I think I'll stay interested for a few weeks longer this year.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Interested in tonight's runs for sure. However, I still hear 1300m in the back of my mind telling me not to even look at the models this far out..... How long before we hit the 120h mark?.......... Yeah, we got a few days before we can get invested in this one.
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Meh, yea but Thursday will be the teller … jmo. If we survive Until 00Z Friday Suite and still look good it’s Game-time. That event START onset is 7 Days out. The maps Just finish Thursday for Accums …. So For Sure 50hrs more and we’re in it


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f6689a62ae1edd21040aba81b048cae6.jpg

18z GEFS mean not as good as 12z but not a major difference. Too early to tell, always best to bet against a big dog but with pattern we’re in the game right now


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Cad Wedge NC said:
Interested in tonight's runs for sure. However, I still hear 1300m in the back of my mind telling me not to even look at the models this far out..... How long before we hit the 120h mark?.......... Yeah, we got a few days before we can get invested in this one.
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ensembles right now
 
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