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Pattern Failboat February

WolfpackHomer91 said:
Verbatim ....a 996LP over Cheraw SC I fell isn't the track for most of us but hey ...
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Lots to iron out here. Small nuances take you from the winter storm sector to tornado alley fairly quickly. Massive late season storm is starting to look likely for someone
 
KyloG said:
Geez, waking up to the 6z GEFS …

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That’s a legit mean for NC at this range. What’s the EPS mean? Seems like overall it looks pretty good with blocking around this time, but the SE vortex does look like it’s moving north real quick.

The age old question, can we keep it south of us? Hopefully the blocking gets stronger and stronger as we get closer. But after this timeframe I noticed, the blocking disappears pretty quick, so not sure what to think about that.

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rburrel2 said:
The Euro AI hasn't like this storm at all. Maybe that's a good sign?

The overnight Pangu/Euro Graphcast look interesting though. They both look like some sort of snow to ice scenario with wedging. (just guessing with no qpf/surface maps.)
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You know dang well the EURO AI will be 1000% accurate this go round
 
griteater said:
Yeah I’d like to see this Feb 20-ish system streak west to east (the GEFS look) instead of being a wound up bomb. Basically, a lower latitude version of today’s storm that is hitting DC. Nashville would like the wound up bomb
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I have a feeling that EPS is more right...all winter that ridge has wanted to pull back further west. But with that said...it's snowed multiple times in place very far south this winter.

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This is the one time I think the CFS shows the realistic outcome. 6z GFS also has the dual high pressures but runs the primary low up through the central Carolinas. If we get this configuration, I would bet on the miller A (or hybrid) from the gulf to off the coast.

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FallsLake said:
This is the one time I think the CFS shows the realistic outcome. 6z GFS also has the dual high pressures but runs the primary low up through the central Carolinas. If we get this configuration, I would bet on the miller A (or hybrid) from the gulf to off the coast.

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This looks to be one of those systems I should keep half an eye on, in case there are any shifts further south. Wouldn't that be something, to see snow twice on the Gulf coast in the same winter!
 
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Yep as [mention]rburrel2 [/mention] said the icon looks really good at the moment
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rburrel2 said:
ICON has a southern slider developing at hr 180. A cold snow through Arkansas/North Mississippi with a weak wave moving West to East. Pretty ideal.
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You wouldn't want that to amp up anymore. That is a nice strong high but it's way off to the NW.
 
rburrel2 said:
ICON has a southern slider developing at hr 180. A cold snow through Arkansas/North Mississippi with a weak wave moving West to East. Pretty ideal.
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Really hate the ridge nudge showing up next week. This looks like a swing in system. (cold air swinging in with the storm) for a lot of the Southeast. Mid South does well with these, East of the Apps struggle. Lot of watching to do.
 
Mitch West said:
Really hate the ridge nudge showing up next week. This looks like a swing in system. (cold air swinging in with the storm) for a lot of the Southeast. Mid South does well with these, East of the Apps struggle. Lot of watching to do.
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Ar kansas buried again and again! Maybe just maybe it won't cut but that sure seems to be the mantra lately and going forward
 
Mitch West said:
Really hate the ridge nudge showing up next week. This looks like a swing in system. (cold air swinging in with the storm) for a lot of the Southeast. Mid South does well with these, East of the Apps struggle. Lot of watching to do.
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It could be, but the verdict is still out on that. Icon is faster than other guidance with the wave. Of course, a slower solution leaves more room for a lobe of the PV to get hung back and start interacting with the southern wave which can screw us.

First step is getting the PV to shift/bundle far enough East to keep that from happening,(like the icon shows).
 
Mitch West said:
Really hate the ridge nudge showing up next week. This looks like a swing in system. (cold air swinging in with the storm) for a lot of the Southeast. Mid South does well with these, East of the Apps struggle. Lot of watching to do.
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Yeah it’s late arriving cold. Even with the flat icon, you can see it’s not really pumping heights out front, it’s just late to the party. Higher border elevations would do fine. We would not.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah it’s late arriving cold. Even with the flat icon, you can see it’s not really pumping heights out front, it’s just late to the party. Higher border elevations would do fine. We would not.
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We're getting nuked on that run, IMO.

It's not like we are torching before it arrives. 850-925s would be below freezing when saturation occurs, not factoring in the cold press that's pushing in.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah it’s late arriving cold. Even with the flat icon, you can see it’s not really pumping heights out front, it’s just late to the party. Higher border elevations would do fine. We would not.
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It'll be a storm to watch. I think more opportunities will emerge even after that one.
 
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