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Pattern Failboat February

Well the 18z GFS sucked in the long range, but the GEFS looks a lot better through hour 264. We really need the PV to set up Northeast of New England and not have a primary lobe over Western or Central Canada, and the 18z GEFS is trending the right way in that regard.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s going to be a suite here soon where models start to get a grip on a small window of opportunity. MJO going into favorable phases will not be for nothing. Starting to see little nuances even now
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Fully agree with this winter is far from over! Blocking patterns raise odds greatly. This is the pattern that leads to big dogs! Could we strike out due to bad luck yes 100% but by far best winter pattern in many years coming up


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hky1894 said:
Fully agree with this winter is far from over! Blocking patterns raise odds greatly. This is the pattern that leads to big dogs! Could we strike out due to bad luck yes 100% but by far best winter pattern in many years coming up


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I mean we see what’s about to happen to the MA into NE. The moisture is flowing. If we can shove the baroclinic zone south and East for a small window on the tail end of winter it opens a window for everyone for some paste. And a lot
of it
 
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Ext EPS shows some hope through March. Let’s make it count


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JP152 said:
DCA will probably end up with like 6 inches while over 20 falls at IAD.
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This is actually pretty likely. When they’re riding the line on temps DCA can really struggle with mixing while IAD gets hammered. Snowquester in 2013 was a good example of that, IIRC, where DCA mixed and their forecast was a historic bust while IAD still eked out a solid wet snow storm.
 
griteater said:
Such a clean AK/Scandi ridge phase over the pole (rare). Let's see what MJO 8-1-2-3 can do to the Pacific pattern after mid-month

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Is it normal to have this configuration and a strong SE ridge, W trough!??
 
hky1894 said:
Fully agree with this winter is far from over! Blocking patterns raise odds greatly. This is the pattern that leads to big dogs! Could we strike out due to bad luck yes 100% but by far best winter pattern in many years coming up


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Oh naw to the naw naw naw.
 
CaryWx said:
We'd need a little better amperage in those cold phases wouldn't we considering late Feb or is low amp preferred this time of year?
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I don't know if the amplitude matters to the degree of the cold. But it can matter to the amount of time it spends in any particular phase.
 
SnowNiner said:
Still on for February 17th to get cold again, but right after that doesn’t look as good. Still think we’re teetering on keeping cold more to the west, but it’s just too early to know. Lots will change, just hoping to see the cold get east.

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That’s the thing - looks like we are going to get a good MJO pass 8-1-2-3 (Phase 3 is better in late winter than in early winter), but it’s hard to know for sure how much it will help. The modeling could trend better in time though. I’d like to see the Pac Jet work a bit more equatorward. GEFS is a little better than the EPS right now in that regard

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Arctic temps very high, extent and area at lowest, with a chance that max extent has already been reached, though small as that would be highly unusual. Water temps north of svalbard recorded as high as 5c, sea ice melts at -1.8c.... svalbard is like 73 north or somin...


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griteater said:
That’s the thing - looks like we are going to get a good MJO pass 8-1-2-3 (Phase 3 is better in late winter than in early winter), but it’s hard to know for sure how much it will help. The modeling could trend better in time though. I’d like to see the Pac Jet work a bit more equatorward. GEFS is a little better than the EPS right now in that regard

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Yeah, but even so it still shows a SE ridge and terrible temps. Theme right now is with a lack of western ridge, it keeps cold out west. Hope all the models start to see a better mjo/pacific soon. It’s really early but I would think at this range it would sniff out a better pacific.

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