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Pattern Failboat February

Cad Wedge NC said:
If I get 24 inches of snow as shown, I will eat one of my socks. With that being said, I am past 60 now and I would really like to see that happen just once before I pass on.
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I’ve had a 10”, 12”, and 18”. 24” has to happen sooner or later right? Frosty dang near got his a few years ago.
 
rburrel2 said:
There's a lot of smoke between the 280-360 hr time frame: The analogs kylo posted, all the ensemble snow means and 5h maps, Euro AI, ext. control run.

Hard not to like that time period right now.
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That smoke is probably the heat underneath another cold tease. Hopefully not more of the Opie kick the can model. We’re running out of time, things got to come together soon.
 
SnowmanVol99 said:
That smoke is probably the heat underneath another cold tease. Hopefully not more of the Opie kick the can model. We’re running out of time, things got to come together soon.
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Weather is totally random. Constant negativity is generally gonna be correct more times than not we live in the south snow is uncommon. The pattern coming up if ensembles are correct looks great. A decaying block while pacific becomes favorable is recipe for a big dog. If we strikeout so be it but much better shape than other recent winters.


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SnowmanVol99 said:
That smoke is probably the heat underneath another cold tease. Hopefully not more of the Opie kick the can model. We’re running out of time, things got to come together soon.
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There really hasn’t been can kicking this winter. December was below average and January was solidly below average. The pattern has basically followed the teleconnections and those are lining up right for a return to cold next weekend to early the following week and on.
 
rburrel2 said:
Another banger at the end of the Euro AI run. Things are really shaping up great for the last week of February to save us.
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It seems the AI Euro has taken the mantle this winter as the weenie model. Seems to regularly show historic fantasy storms in the LR even more than the GFS.
 
GFS and Canadian runs look warm in long run for mid south. Not putting a lot of faith in late February right now, tonight’s runs look warm late especially toward the 20-23rd when they were showing much colder just yesterday. If cold is truly coming back after mid month you would think op’s would start honing in like it did correctly in early January. Sure things can change and I hope they do, I am usually at least mildly optimistic but the way February is shaking out and looking at long range it seems cold is trying to avoid us and long range can’t get into mid range. Maybe things will change quickly at some point. Good luck to North Carolina and Virginia folks this week. Looks like a cold rain week in Tennessee.
 
Snowman63 said:
View attachment 168091
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Important to remember that 3-5 degrees below average this time of year puts us at an average high temp of 50ish degrees in CLT, 60ish degrees for places south. I don't know if this look is going to do it... need some super cold air again to prevent precip from simply being all rain. However. I suppose places in west TN, like Memphis will be closer to that 10+ degrees below average which may give them a shot
 
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