-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I leave for the tropics for a few days on 2/27, so I’d target the last couple days of February or first couple days of March for a major winter storm for us all.
(I’m always nervous to go out of town during the winter because of missing potential snowstorms.
)
That Extended jet starting to match phase 8 for sure
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Im fully sucked back in.... NC CAD regions gonna get 2 feet and 1/2" of ICE .... book it. Its my lie let me live it.
Record high today in Atlanta by 2 degrees and still rising. That's it, its torchy outside.
Honestly not far from a sleet setup here for a lot of wedge areas in NC, 925mb trends is close it’s just sfc temps are marginal even if we do entrench more wedge
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tsappfrog20
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Care to share what this is showing
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
WolfpackHomer91
Member
-NAO/AO
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
-NAO/-AO (blocking) teleconnection, hopefully we can make it count with a move into P8
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Looks great….up to the time the SE ridge is shown to get flattened down….then the numbers come up. Hopefully they stay low and we keep the blocking longer while we have an eastern trough.
-NAO events in late Feb/ early March go hand and hand with past late season big dog snow events. Just saying
NCSNOW
Member
Word on the street is we get low end el nino next winter. Im fine with low end either , preferably neutral state. I despise strong el nino the worse. Guaranteed your goose gets cooked all winter under strong el nino as Canada torches with pac firehose.
If I remember right, weak El Niños are best for Piedmont NC snow chances. I’d assume the same is true for the rest of the SE. Like you said, neutral ENSO is good, too, and strong El Niño tends to be too much (1998, for example). Then you just end up wet while torching.
As over as it seems, I just get the feeling this Winter won't go quietly into the night. Someone is going to get a solid wet snowstorm by the end of the month in here.
Tsappfrog20
Member
rburrel2
Member
Long range Ensembles finally look decent today. Especially the EPS/GEPS. We can't give up on winter just yet. Also just to note that end of the Ensemble means only get us through Feb 20-22th... The period from the 20th-28th looks like it could be dynamite, and that's definitely not too late.
Here’s a few that come to mind. The general theme is some sort of block on top and a 50/50 low/SE can vortex, and an active pacific jet. With a S/W entering into confluent flow associated with the cold vortex. Seems pretty on brand for March given shorter wavelengths. 
Seems like we are headed that way in general with a active/extending jet and a lobe of the TPV in SE Canada 
Seems like we are headed that way in general with a active/extending jet and a lobe of the TPV in SE Canada Tarheelwx
Member
AI looked much better for NC Cad areas and VA for late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
TW
TW
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Cant wait for the first
"OMG The sun angle" or
"soil temps are too warm wont stick"
" its gonna be 48 tomm better hope clouds roll in or we are screwed"
Thats when you know its Feb in SE ....Extra Paranoid concerns for already paranoid weenies
"OMG The sun angle" or
"soil temps are too warm wont stick"
" its gonna be 48 tomm better hope clouds roll in or we are screwed"
Thats when you know its Feb in SE ....Extra Paranoid concerns for already paranoid weenies
This is the Picasso Clown pattern. This is often associated with a cold and stormy east and southeast.
I've been expecting them to come around. We're going to have a solid 2-3 weeks to score before we're done.
Pattern is active and cold is going to be around. Buckle up.
To be fair these are valid mitigating factors, especiallly for marginal events. Light snow + warm soil temps + temps around freezing + February / March sun angle = white rain.
And if you care about street sticking these matter more, too.
These are the kinds of factors that can push a 6” event to 4”, and make accumulation variable since meltwater pools in certain areas, etc. You may also end up with a slushy inch on the street despite 4” on the grass.
SnowNiner
Member
Does the clown pattern usually have a ridgy goatee under his bottom lip?
If you don’t think soil temps matter at all, then you’re at odds with the professionals. RAH NWS’ case study of the March 2010 winter storm in central NC discusses them at length and that is indeed a storm where warm soil temps, sun angle, and BL temps near / above freezing made accumulations sporadic and variable depending on where banding for higher rates set up. Places that got most of their snow after sunset also did far better.
I’d also point out the late February 2020 winter storm as another where these factors limited impacts to an extent. We discussed it a bit in the postmortem to that storm.
Loading…
www.weather.gov
I’d also point out the late February 2020 winter storm as another where these factors limited impacts to an extent. We discussed it a bit in the postmortem to that storm.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
Updated
This reminds me of 2010.
rburrel2
Member
I'd just like to be tracking a storm in close enough range where I am having to worry about sun angle, soil temps, time of day, etc.
The I-95 corridor from DCA to BOS just gets destroyed over the next couple weeks on this GFS run. Unbelievable. And we cold rain over and over.
It’s just amazing that the moisture is never there when we need it. And the cold is never there when we have the moisture.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Can imagine this QPF reload after Reload 2.5 weeks ago when it was 25 every day lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blacksburg has rain Monday night lows in the low 30s
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Good gracious- eagles are in the superbowl and Philly may get 30” of snow this week
LickWx
Member
Saw some on the mid atlantic forum complaining because their 20 inches is less than nyc's 3 feet or somin lol. What is interesting to me is how this has happened before in DC, just north of here, and about 7-8 degrees colder in winter only, while this could never happen here really. Maybe Boston can get over 100 inches of snow again this year like in 2015.
LickWx
Member
What are the chances that DC gets 33 and rain for a whole week instead? I feel like they are on that line... smell the rain or somin
Brent
Member
