If we're going to have one last shot, it will likely be the last week of February / first week of March. Even Phase 7 isn't great in February. Honestly, ensembles match Phase 7 MJO composite decently well.
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
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tractor girl
Member
With all this cold and warm we've seen bouncing around the past month or so, you'd think we'd have seen more severe threats in the southeast.
March gonna be rocking
rburrel2
Member
Well the hope is we are in to phase 8 by February 15th. Seems reasonable when looking at the mjo forecasts.
Right, but if you're transitioning from a Phase 7 look that features ridging in the east into a Phase 8 look with a trough and blocking over Greenland it isn't going to be a light switch. It could roughly take a week or so to see the downstream long wave pattern respond to favorable MJO forcing.
In what's looking like end of snow for RDU...this winter it will have recorded 2.2" which completes the worst 3 year stretch I could find going back 100+ years. RDU 10yr running avg is at an all time low. And we thought the 90's was bad for snow...I imagine by mid-2030's our 10yr running avg will be approaching 1".
Textbook. I’m buying the dip here
I emotionally can't handle another major winter event for New Orleans with RDU sitting at all time lows for avg snowfall the past 10-20-30 years.
SnowNiner
Member
I think it’s completely reasonable and rational to state the obvious, that it doesn’t snow like it used to. It’s true. It’s nuanced but that shows it pretty well. I’m sure it’s the same for the clt area.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
whats hilarious is if it wasnt for SE Ridge all these slamming Nashville and or N Alabama would be ours. It would naturally have to ride up or out to sea
We are probably going to have a winter storm at some point before the 20th. That pattern is ripe but just needs a little bit more ridge suppression
CumulonimbusIncus
Member
I dispute the 80°F daily max at KRDU yesterday. Unrepresentative. All ECONET and RAWS and CWOP stations within a few mile radius had 3-5°F cooler maxima.
Agree, I had 76 for a high locally. 80 at the airport?---hmmmmI dispute the 80°F daily max at KRDU yesterday. Unrepresentative. All ECONET and RAWS and CWOP stations within a few mile radius had 3-5°F cooler maxima.
Agreed and every met that I know agrees as well.I dispute the 80°F daily max at KRDU yesterday. Unrepresentative. All ECONET and RAWS and CWOP stations within a few mile radius had 3-5°F cooler maxima.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I have noticed similar instances at Birmingham airport over the last few years.
CltNative90
Member
Not arguing that we aren't following a downward trend, but I'd be interested to know how many of those big winters were just one event and how many contained multiple smaller to medium <6" events. I expect most of the winters with larger snow amounts just had one big event. Looking back at climatology on NWS, the old NC State archive and Webbs historical maps, I don't think wall to wall cold and stormy has ever been common, and winters where we have events spread out over multiple months seem to be the outlier. It only takes one big event or one good two week window in an otherwise warmer than normal to make a winter and influence the trend.
Sent with super warm regards,
Lmao
Bigedd09
Member
Mid south.. Again,. They can't lose
SER that’s what it’s good for. #sux
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rburrel2
Member
I feel like this is a good look, but it seems like it doesn't want to delivery anything. Seems like we should at least muster a small window of favorability at some point in the 2nd half of February, right?
rburrel2
Member
It's not often that Baffin Bay torches at the same time as us for ten straight days. That's a head scratcher. Somethings got to give.
Southern Track
Member
Like what @1300m posted earlier, that far out check the 5h patterns and the surface reflection will come later.
Bigedd09
Member
Southeast ridge putting in some overtime
Dipped back to 49 after holding around 50-51 most of the day. Beautiful
LickWx
Member
That nam cold bias on 2mTs seems like it's getting worse
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This looks very unusual.
Who would’ve thought the Southeast gets left behind.
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It is unusual and it should correct some as we get closer and it takes the MJO into account more as we get closer
SnowNiner
Member
EPS starts to beat down/flatten the SE ridge around the 17th/18th. Maybe we get one more week of opportunity last week of February.
I don't know what the deal is with the "split ridging" to the south.
I don't know what the deal is with the "split ridging" to the south.
"threat"?
iGRXY
Member
We have 40 more days of legit climo left to score. Obviously we are cooked the next 10 days at this point. You start getting in Week 4 Feb and early March and you're getting into tighter and tighter margins on already thin lines to begin with. We've really got to try and score around 2/20-2/28 IMO. Odds says we get to below avg temps the last 8 days of Feb and early March with more favorable MJO, but idk about winter weather at this point. Feb has traditionally been a great month in the Carolinas for winter storms, but here recently winter is done by week 2 of Feb and I'm in a prove it mindset that we can score. Below avg temps for even a portion of Feb may be our "win" this year which is really sad to say.
pattern next week for the Southeast is diabolical.
assume that means bad