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Pattern Failboat February

packfan98 said:
The 850 line creeps north during the storm so there would be some snow to mix just south of the depiction here, but this gives you a good idea of where the snow line would be...I-85..big surprise.
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Feels like it's been inching north for a while. It'll be an NC/VA border storm soon enough
 
Ross said:
don't love this threat, even for arctic richmond this feels tenuous at best

can't say I love the synoptics- wishy washy. maybe we back into a few inches as we've did in january with something riding the frontal boundary

but ultimately this scans as something that will pass us by to the north eventually. would love to be wrong!
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I'm no met, but just looking at the EPS, I think VA gets smoked. It's gonna be a great couple weeks for the NE and MA. Whether or not south of the NC line can get leftovers to me is the question.
 
Bigedd09 said:
Discouragung to see us lose the AI. Defintley had faith in it. Oh well, maybe it'll come back
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Having faith in any deterministic or ensemble at 200 hours out is pure foolishness. The AI hasn't been locked in and it won't be until we're closer to 5 days out. The fact it's already heading in the wrong direction with trying to dig more energy out west, which will resultantly bolster the ridging to the east, is not the direction you want to be heading in at H5.
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SnowNiner said:
I'm no met, but just looking at the EPS, I think VA gets smoked. It's gonna be a great couple weeks for the NE and MA. Whether or not south of the NC line can get leftovers to me is the question.
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we could front end thump or maybe luck into a frontogen pre event but ultimately i think this is fools gold
 
For CAD regions in NC, the 06Z AI has a better signature than the 12z from yesterday. So the latest run is not the worst run we've seen. However, it does make 3 runs in a row where we're trending warmer. Just know that 12z yesterday was even warmer in CAD areas. Looking forward to seeing what the 12z suite brings.

TW
 
Bigedd09 said:
Feels like it's been inching north for a while. It'll be an NC/VA border storm soon enough
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I think the 18z run yesterday was the furthest south run I’ve seen with it in a while. At this point, the specifics aren’t too important, we just want the players on the field. It may indeed end up too far north but at least we have a shot. No point in parsing the specifics of an operational model a week out.
 
Any time you excite the SER you can expect that the mid levels will either be warm at onset or they will be warming rapidly shortly after. I think in this look the nc mountains and foothills could do well along with a big part of va and maybe tn in the snow department. For a lot of us in the damming regions it's likely to be the typical how much cold can be deposited race given the amount of cold in Canada and the epo conveyor feeding more cold into noam I could see a wedge over performing here.
 
SD said:
Any time you excite the SER you can expect that the mid levels will either be warm at onset or they will be warming rapidly shortly after. I think in this look the nc mountains and foothills could do well along with a big part of va and maybe tn in the snow department. For a lot of us in the damming regions it's likely to be the typical how much cold can be deposited race given the amount of cold in Canada and the epo conveyor feeding more cold into noam I could see a wedge over performing here.
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Definitely feeling snow to ice could be our likely best case scenario here. Just gotta hope for a good thump on the front end before WAA wins out. SN to IP to ZR at the end is common of many of our memorable winter storms here and can be high impact all the same. Going to definitely cut back on big dog potential, though at this point even 3” would be a big dog for me. 😂

A repeat of February 2014 wouldn’t be terrible (not that that is going to happen lol). Remember how much the event the day before overperformed for areas south and east, too? New Bern got 10”, which was more than I got in the Triad from the main event. 😂
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
2M temps
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah the freezing temps actually dropped and shifted SE as precip picked up. Strong CAD signal, still I'd love to see other models jump on and the AI hold firm (as we should be entering it's wheelhouse timeframe).
 
What's best guess for this event we are tracking. Estimated start time 12zish-18z Tuesday 2/11/25?

That's 165 ours out, which means we get inside the 1300m 120hr benchmark on models Thursday afternoon 12z runs. Love this golden rule 1300m and others preach. Its worked out great as a hobbyist Modelologist.
 
superjames1992 said:
Definitely feeling snow to ice could be our likely best case scenario here. Just gotta hope for a good thump on the front end before WAA wins out. SN to IP to ZR at the end is common of many of our memorable winter storms here and can be high impact all the same. Going to definitely cut back on big dog potential, though at this point even 3” would be a big dog for me. 😂

A repeat of February 2014 wouldn’t be terrible (not that that is going to happen lol). Remember how much the event the day before overperformed for areas south and east, too? New Bern got 10”, which was more than I got in the Triad from the main event. 😂
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Not the same as 14 but this setup has some characteristics of a fgen thump on the front end
 
KyloG said:
Hard to believe this pattern results in a huge snow/ice...but it did as Webber pointed out.

View attachment 167760View attachment 167761
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That two weeks was so volatile with the pattern. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s in the Carolinas the day before that first storm on 2/17-18. Then after that storm we were back to near 60 for a couple days before that snowstorm on 2/23-24.
 
SD said:
Interesting how the AIFS and ICON really don't clear the front out to the south and instead keep the overrunning train going as the cold builds.
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12z GFS does the same. I need HP building back in Tuesday 6 hours quicker, wallops VA on Monday and keeps it going for couple days. Someone's gonna score a HECS out of this in upper SE, lower MA.
 
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