Pattern Failboat February

[John1122]

I know we all desperately want these maps to come to fruition but we have been fooled to many times in the past to fall for this.
The AI is the new shiny toy in the tool box but this just looks to good to be true!
I don't believe that our climate has changed so much that this can't happen but,
I'd be more out to believe this in January than mid Feb.
If I'm not mistaken based upon some of the posts from the Jan storms that Burrel was posting it was extremely to high on totals.
Would love to see half of this happen in that foot print,
It would be like times of old...

Big snows in the region usually come in February/March. January doesn't usually pack the explosive potential that those months do. For instance, 4 of Charlotte's top 5 snowfalls were February or March. Raleighs first is January 25th, but second and third are February and March.

The biggest snow of my life was in March and the second was in February, here in East Tennessee. Both over 20 inches.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Who y’all got out of these two?
GFS is just always so dead set on pumping steroids into every setup it tries to
decode

 

[SnowmanVol99]

Some of our biggest snows and winter events here in middle Tennessee have happened in February.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is mega amped, puts a whole trough in the CUS

 

[lexxnchloe]

Better than nothing

 

[SnowmanVol99]

Does euro Al run the same time as euro?

 

[cyclogent]

Historically, February has more days with 5"+ snowfalls than any other month for Chattanooga, Knoxville, Charlotte, and Raleigh.

 

[Baggs]

Gfs has snow next Thursday followed by 6 hrs of ice on Friday from another system

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS seemingly doubled down a bit. Euro is a major ice event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Best EPS run yet. What can possibly go wrong

 

[NCSNOW]

Between the two Glue Sniffing Physics Models, You pray the GFS would be more correct than the Canadian. Neither are even worth discussing for an event just crossing the 7 day mark to start time. Canadian would be a freezing Rain disaster here in Triad. All hail the Euro Familia, especially EPS and AI.

 

[Bigedd09]

Haven't seen one post about the 0z EURO AI. Was it that bad?

 

[Mitch West]

Haven't seen one post about the 0z EURO AI. Was it that bad?

North. Freezing rain crap.

 

[FallsLake]

Haven't seen one post about the 0z EURO AI. Was it that bad?

Looked good to me. I don't have the good maps. But, it's a big winter storm for the CAD zones. I would guess mostly snow from North Wake to North Mecklenburg Counties, then a zone of ice down into NE Ga.

 

[packfan98]

Looked good to me. I don't have the good maps. But, it's a big winter storm for the CAD zones. I would guess mostly snow from North Wake to North Mecklenburg Counties, then a zone of ice down into NE Ga.

I would agree. Looks very similar to other recent runs.

 

[SnowmanVol99]

What was euro Al at Oz like? Haven’t seen any comments on it.

 

[packfan98]

What was euro Al at Oz like? Haven’t seen any comments on it.

The last 4 comments have been about it. Similar to others looks we’ve seen. Not as good as 18z for most.

 

[Bigedd09]

Thanks for the responses everyone

 

[packfan98]

Thanks for the responses everyone

Yeah, I don’t see a significant impact any further south of the I-85 corridor at this point. Not enough cold air.

 

[Bigedd09]

Yeah, I don’t see a significant impact any further south of the I-85 corridor at this point. Not enough cold air.

Yeah that seems to be the issue here. Just so unfortunate. In January we had abundant cold air but a lack of qpf, now we have abundant qpf with extremely marginal cold air. Just so hard to win here

 

[FallsLake]

We tend to be on the warm side of the stick many times during the winter. But there is one thing we do great with, CAD.

6z 3k NAM for late tomorrow afternoon (would be a shocker after today):

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[BullCityWx]

Canadian ensembles obviously disagree with its OP

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 167746

 

[Stevo24]

I’m guessing the most recent EuroAI was a bust)l

View attachment 167746

you can already see the AI starting to lock in. I figured it would creep north a few more times.

 

[Bigedd09]

View attachment 167746

Pretty big jump north compared to 18z. Still think CAD areas are favored for sure

 

[Bigedd09]

6Z Euro was warmer through hour 144 compared to 0z FWIW

 

[rburrel2]

Not that this is indicative of future results... but the EPS consistently had a snow mean of 0 inches in Coastal Louisiana for that last storm in this time range.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yall gone make me have to post these charts again it looks like

Over the previous 3 winters (21-22. 22-23, 23-24), the Euro AI (AIFS) and the AI GraphCast (I'm guessing this is the Euro AI Graphcast and not the GFS AI Graphcast) were the best performing models here on the chart for the Day 5 forecast at 500mb in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics.

View attachment 167727


Here are the charts for the Euro AI (AIFS) outperforming the Regular Euro (IFS) last winter (23-24). These charts are for days 1 thru 10. Note that the chart on the left is anomaly correlation, so the top line on the chart is the better performer (Euro AI). Upper right chart is the 850mb temperature error, so the bottom line on the chart is the better performer (Euro AI). Bottom right chart is in the Tropics.

View attachment 167728

The AI has the best H5 look for the longer range pattern than the rest of the field, IMO (at least right now). Glad it's scoring the best.

 

[rburrel2]

The forecasted strat split doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did a few days ago. It's still pretty disrupted I guess, but this seems to happen every single time.

 

[SnowNiner]

Best EPS run yet. What can possibly go wrong View attachment 167741View attachment 167742View attachment 167743

So what's the difference between the AIFS and the EPS? It seems to me the EPS has a great CAD through the storm but still build heights through the SE and it erodes the CAD. My guess is it's an ice storm to rain at the end.

Is the AIFS more flat/slider and doesn't ridge the east through the storm, thus colder and snowier?

 

[Mitch West]

View attachment 167746

Kylo can verify this cause I’m not 100% sure, but I think it’s important for people in here to realize that these maps are counting freezing rain also. I have a feeling people are looking at them and immediately thinking all snow. @KyloG

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 167746

Can you post an NC county map of that map Bull?

yeah, it's always that close around here.

 

[SnowNiner]

Kylo can verify this cause I’m not 100% sure, but I think it’s important for people in here to realize that these maps are counting freezing rain also. I have a feeling people are looking at them and immediately thinking all snow. @KyloG

I thought about that yesterday. But after discussion, it was keeping the 850 line around CLT. North of that was likely all snow or thereabouts. It's showing a stinkin classic snowstorm, right or wrong IMO.

 

[BullCityWx]

This looks to be more of a product of less qpf this run - cut by a third or so. It did inch north toward 85.

 

[Mitch West]

I thought about that yesterday. But after discussion, it was keeping the 850 line around CLT. North of that was likely all snow or thereabouts. It's showing a stinkin classic snowstorm, right or wrong IMO.

Yeh you’re right. I was looking at the 540 line on tidbits like a ding dong. Disregard. I think it’s mixing sleet though

 

[packfan98]

I thought about that yesterday. But after discussion, it was keeping the 850 line around CLT. North of that was likely all snow or thereabouts. It's showing a stinkin classic snowstorm, right or wrong IMO.

The 850 line creeps north during the storm so there would be some snow to mix just south of the depiction here, but this gives you a good idea of where the snow line would be...I-85..big surprise.

 

[Ross]

don't love this threat, even for arctic richmond this feels tenuous at best

can't say I love the synoptics- wishy washy. maybe we back into a few inches as we've did in january with something riding the frontal boundary

but ultimately this scans as something that will pass us by to the north eventually. would love to be wrong!

 

[Bigedd09]

This looks to be more of a product of less qpf this run - cut by a third or so. It did inch north toward 85.

View attachment 167754

Discouragung to see us lose the AI. Defintley had faith in it. Oh well, maybe it'll come back

 

[BullCityWx]

For the record - this run AIFS has .84 QPF at IGX for the run while at 6z had 1.23 at the same time frame. Like I said, less QPF less snow.