I wonder if we get stuck in this wedge longer than modeled and we lose Thursday
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian coming around as well, Major change from its 0z run
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Just a little shift south
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Dark Blue and North - Trending to good shot
Lighter Blue - Gonna be tight but majority of the time will be fine in CAD scenarios.
Below the line - Youre not in a good CAD spot climo wise and this prolly isnt your best shot.
SnowNiner
Member
That's alot of SE ridging. Wow. To be honest, this is how we've gotten winter storms the last 20 years right? Some matter of WAR or ridging along the east with mega CAD; snow, ice, rain at the end. Not THAT much ridging, but some. 89 didn't even have any Atlantic blocking.
The set up kinda is the new normal in my opinion, and we can get storms with some ridging. So the question becomes, how far the storm cuts, how much does the SE ridge flex, and how strong does the PV push down = how strong will the CAD be? Everything seems to be on the table I think, but the blocking and the 50-50 low ain't going to hurt, and seems to be a benefit 89 didn't have.
I live N of GSP.
The last big Feb snow we had was 2014.
The last big March snow either 08 or 09.
Much of those March snows happened 30+ years ago.
The climate has warmed.
I think some over do the warming but some act as if it hasn't warmed at all.
I personally believe it's much harder to get snow in the best set-ups from the last 2 weeks of Dec - the first 2 weeks of Feb.
Before and after those dates is almost akin to mythology.
Just my 2 cents.
Btw will it snow again in Feb or March ?
Of course,
Will it be what the Euro AI was spitting out?
Call me skeptical but I'll have to see it to believe it!
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The Gulf Coast just got snow. Very warm it seems.
rburrel2
Member
The end of the GEFS run(348-384hr) looked a lot more conducive for something wintry compared to what it's been showing. Several big hits in there.
rburrel2
Member
The last week of February will save us.
GSP has officially hit 80
So 12z Euro must have sucked big time?
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Tsappfrog20
Member
LickWx
Member
RDU hit 80 , cold weenies in shambles till tomorrow
Right.
When will be the next one?
Charlotte, GSP, Raleigh hit 80° on Feb 4th.
I'd say that's not cool by any stretch.
I'm not trying to point out these gotcha moments.
We'll have the exceptions from time to time both ways.
It just seems that warmer than normal is winning more than colder than normal.
I whole heartily believe we'll see snow again.
Maybe this year.
I am very skeptical we'll get a board wide 6" to a foot snow until next season at best.
Would love to be proven wrong!
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Met winter has been below average to this point for all of us. GSP was -0.2 in Dec and -4.4 in Jan.
No doubt Dec & Jan were very cold.
Reminded me of winters past.
If you go through my posts on here or back to the other site we all once frequented,
You'll never see me cheering for warm weather.
My original post was on the next threat and what the Euro AI was throwing down.
I was just pointing out that I was very very skeptical while still maintaining a modicum of hope.
Whats wrong with that POV?
I think when all is said and done, since we follow these weather models and pay much more attention these days, versus the old, we are seeing more threats fail to materialize versus the good ole days because the technology has just gotten better and further out. I think it's setting invalid expectations due to all the bad long range runs.
I could be wrong, but some areas not just the coast, got more snow than normal not even a month ago. A lot of us are technically above average for winter already.
So while things may seem less snowy, are they really? Or are we comparing it to obnoxious long range modeling that doesn't verify..
A lot of historical averages have been skewed by big years, I know that much. Sometimes you're gonna have a down decade or whatever.
I could be wrong, but some areas not just the coast, got more snow than normal not even a month ago. A lot of us are technically above average for winter already.
So while things may seem less snowy, are they really? Or are we comparing it to obnoxious long range modeling that doesn't verify..
A lot of historical averages have been skewed by big years, I know that much. Sometimes you're gonna have a down decade or whatever.
I'm going to take a break again.
I'd just like to inform people that I want snow like the majority of everyone else. The setup has not looked very good at all for days outside a couple unproven fringe models or bad ones. The SE ridge tends to be a killer of snow in a setup like this, imo, and we are likely going to see it flex harder as we get closer.
The GFS is probably way warm (was at least it, made a large shift today at 12z) but I don't think it's completely out to lunch, especially with the Euro going towards it. Meet in the middle and Virginia/northern most NC do well.
Anyways, not trying to be negative Nancy, but I guess it could seem like I am when certain models and fringe outcomes are getting overhype and mainly discussed versus the probabblistic outcome.
I'd just like to inform people that I want snow like the majority of everyone else. The setup has not looked very good at all for days outside a couple unproven fringe models or bad ones. The SE ridge tends to be a killer of snow in a setup like this, imo, and we are likely going to see it flex harder as we get closer.
The GFS is probably way warm (was at least it, made a large shift today at 12z) but I don't think it's completely out to lunch, especially with the Euro going towards it. Meet in the middle and Virginia/northern most NC do well.
Anyways, not trying to be negative Nancy, but I guess it could seem like I am when certain models and fringe outcomes are getting overhype and mainly discussed versus the probabblistic outcome.
rburrel2
Member
This will be the worst 3 year stretch(assuming we don't get anything else) in my back yard since I've been alive and i'm 39 years old. Here's some total seasonal snowfall data I've recorded going back through 2008 for my house.
| 2008/2009 | 2.75 |
| winter 2009-2010 | 3.1 |
| winter 2010/2011 | 7.25 |
| 11/12 | 0 |
| 12/13 | 0 |
| winter 2013/2014 | 4.5 |
| 14/15 | 2.7 |
| 15/16 | 3 |
| 15/17 | 2.5 |
| 17/18 | 2.75 |
| 18/19 | 1.25 |
| 19/20 | 3.25 |
| 20/21 | 1.85 |
| winter 21/22 | 5.5 |
| 22/23 | 0 |
| 23/24 | 0 |
| 24/25 | 1.75 |
WolfpackHomer91
Member
This was using Webber Maps… 2014 - 2019 was Salisbury NC. 2019 - Present is Mooresville. Solid Decade without those two 0’s.
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NCSNOW
Member
What yall got on the menu after Valentines day? Are we being kicked out of the resteraunt till Next season?
My winter is above so far, but January was a cooler than normal month at least. Baton Rouge was +4.7 in December and -3.2 in January (since the start of record in 1892). It wouldn't surprise me if February ends up several degrees on the positive side to bring the overall met winter to above average here. I can't change it, so might as well embrace the warmth and the warmer climate.
GFS gonna try to do something here. Holding back the wave enough to filter in colder air in damming regions
Gotta admit the 65-75 has been awfully nice.
NCSNOW
Member
I guess its still possible for the wx to throw us a Haymaker over the next 3-4 weeks. But no model is seeing any such thing as of this morning. Highly likely Frozen precip outside of frost, is done for the season for mby. While never any guarantees, it's time to start getting mentally prepared for the 90/70 with a 10% chance of a pop up storm wx. It will be here before we know it. Yall tell all the gnats and mosquitoes I said hello.
I think it’s safe to say we’re all about to make a run at the hottest February on record.
Twister
Member
Not sure if hottest on record but Some of us has been saying February was gonna be above Normal. But the few of us that say that are the crazy ones on here that don't know nothing
Most people thought January would torch also due to the pre season predictions at the weather center. That was a flop. And we all know February is tough during a Niña. I don’t think anyone is genuinely surprised here. Some of us were just hoping for something better.
March should be nice and cool though. Which nobody wants.
Twister
Member
Id bet March will be warmer than Feb. A lot of times Nina means early springs
LickWx
Member
44 , overcast with a light NE wind. Wedge doesn’t seem to have dug in as hard as the NAM showed . Shouldn’t be the worst day, maybe some lower 50s . Hopefully tomorrow is milder
I don't post most. I prefer to read. But, I think that most people that post on here like winter weather. We live in the south... Some, way south. Even the way south want winter weather.
I have been on these weather boards for years and years. I have had great years, and a lot of bad years. When we watch people give analysis of winter weather, that is what most people want. It can be called wish casting. Regardless, I would rather read about the possibility that a pattern or system might produce snow than it's going to rain. We have 9 or 10 other months of the year when we can say that
When I go to the casino, I know I'm going to lose. 99 percent of the people are going to lose. But, I don't go because I'm going to lose. I go because there is a miniscule chance that I might win. Same with these boards. People are looking for possibilities.
It is easy to say it's going to be warm or it's not going to snow. Some on this board don't even average an inch of snow a year. If I constantly said it's not going to snow in New Orleans, I would "almost" always be right. But the one time I'm not, that's the fun part and that's the part that people come on here to read.
To be clear, I am not here to say that people shouldn't constantly beat the drum that it's going to be warm or it's not going to snow. I am not for censorship. But to say that, you are just saying what we all know. People just have to look at their snowless yards year after year. Easy. It's going to be warm. It's going to rain. It's not going to snow.
But, despite years of failure. Give me an excited myfrotho704 looking at that 1 percent possibility over the 99 percent probability any day of the week.
I have been on these weather boards for years and years. I have had great years, and a lot of bad years. When we watch people give analysis of winter weather, that is what most people want. It can be called wish casting. Regardless, I would rather read about the possibility that a pattern or system might produce snow than it's going to rain. We have 9 or 10 other months of the year when we can say that
When I go to the casino, I know I'm going to lose. 99 percent of the people are going to lose. But, I don't go because I'm going to lose. I go because there is a miniscule chance that I might win. Same with these boards. People are looking for possibilities.
It is easy to say it's going to be warm or it's not going to snow. Some on this board don't even average an inch of snow a year. If I constantly said it's not going to snow in New Orleans, I would "almost" always be right. But the one time I'm not, that's the fun part and that's the part that people come on here to read.
To be clear, I am not here to say that people shouldn't constantly beat the drum that it's going to be warm or it's not going to snow. I am not for censorship. But to say that, you are just saying what we all know. People just have to look at their snowless yards year after year. Easy. It's going to be warm. It's going to rain. It's not going to snow.
But, despite years of failure. Give me an excited myfrotho704 looking at that 1 percent possibility over the 99 percent probability any day of the week.
Maybe the GEPS is starting to sniff out a favorable MJO phase 
It's over man didn't you hearMaybe the GEPS is starting to sniff out a favorable MJO phase
rburrel2
Member
I know this goes against some analog stuff... but this February is playing out how I feel it always does when we get a cold Canada and a Hudson Bay vortex... You think you're in the game and nothing ever works out. That's been the story for a while now. I'm growing to hate this look because it always leads to disappointment.
Without a favorable Pacific, you can forget about it... what you need is some weird stuff like an extremely warm/blocked up Canada to have a chance.
Without a favorable Pacific, you can forget about it... what you need is some weird stuff like an extremely warm/blocked up Canada to have a chance.
Both the GFS and Euro suited get the mjo to P8 (and will probably go on around from there), but the H5 depictions appear warm (even though there seems to be plenty opportunities for wedging). Hoping we see some sort of correction around mid month start to show up. Throwing the AI in also, since its scores are the best.
rburrel2
Member
Yea, you'd think a completely blocked up Arctic and and a favorable MJO would be a can't miss situation for cold. Yet, somehow every piece of guidance is finding a way to be warm here.
You would think they have to trend better here soon, but who knows.
Pac jet is getting too poleward and extended on some product AIFS for example so it disrupts the pacific pattern and we get some SER reflection.
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iGRXY
Member
Same suspect I see carrying on about it being warm in feb. yeah we will get warm days mixed in but you’re a lost cause if you don’t think those of us east of the apps find a way to wedge and your 60’s and 70’s quickly turn into 45 and cloudy. You start pumping ridging up the NE and we will get our fair share of wedge days. Personally I think you’ll start seeing a correction here soon in response to the MJO to at least more muted east coast ridging. Won’t mean snow but it will mean typical winter days
With AAM on the low side of neutral i would assume that it will be harder to get the jet south and completely eradicate some type of WAR/SER even with HLB and a -nao. This setup may actually pay out bigly for parts of the region since a SE displaced storm track will not be a concern
Enjoying the beautiful spring and fall temps is part of why I love the south.