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Pattern Failboat February

SnowNiner said:
EPS starts to beat down/flatten the SE ridge around the 17th/18th. Maybe we get one more week of opportunity last week of February.

I don't know what the deal is with the "split ridging" to the south.

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Beating down the SER at that time makes sense. The MJO will be in phase 8 and we should have a well established -NAO/-AO combination
 
Chazwin said:
Beating down the SER at that time makes sense. The MJO will be in phase 8 and we should have a well established -NAO/-AO combination
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Yep last hope I think, the pacific forcing of phase 8 gives us an eastern trough for one more go.

Hopefully we don’t wedge and rain for two weeks, then get an eastern trough and go cold and dry, lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yep last hope I think, the pacific forcing of phase 8 gives us an eastern trough for one more go.

Hopefully we don’t wedge and rain for two weeks, then get an eastern trough and go cold and dry, lol.
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Personally I think we’ll have at least 1 opportunity some between 2/18 to 3/3. Obviously there’s been some memorable storms over the years I’m that time frame.Also with the amount of snow cover being put down to our north, that will help chances
 
I’ll be in Missouri next week, I’m sure it will be epic
 
ontherocks said:
Can we be mad at this winter in comparison though? I mean, maybe, but like, can we? I feel like (broad stroke general do not read specifically for MBY) it’s been much more “wintry” than the last few.
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Not mad at all. Saw snow, more than last year's. Been enjoying this warm weather and hoping that the wedge for the next event is overdone down this way.
 
I love winter storms (..not looking good), but I might switch to tracking freezing temps. Last year RDU had its last freeze in late February. I'm wondering now if this year will be a repeat. Especially with how RDU runs warmer than areas around it.
 
I think it's relatively reasonable to think that winter weather may be done for the winter for most on this board outside of maybe some CAD ice in favored areas. As a whole, I think most of the southeast had a great winter. New Orleans to Florida to ATL to the Carolina beaches will remember this winter for a long time. I'd grade it a D- for mby for the Western piedmont of NC and upstate. but a A- or B+ for the rest of the southeast. I know MJO is headed towards phase 8 but that is not the end all be all. Mid south could still cash in with this pattern though.
 
FallsLake said:
I love winter storms (..not looking good), but I might switch to tracking freezing temps. Last year RDU had its last freeze in late February. I'm wondering now if this year will be a repeat. Especially with how RDU runs warmer than areas around it.
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Time track tornadoes soon n chase , going on now southern central Kentucky
 
You can tell our goose is cooked.. not 1 single glimmer of a 384 map post from last night.. well played.. Failboat February.
 
Bigedd09 said:
I think it's relatively reasonable to think that winter weather may be done for the winter for most on this board outside of maybe some CAD ice in favored areas. As a whole, I think most of the southeast had a great winter. New Orleans to Florida to ATL to the Carolina beaches will remember this winter for a long time. I'd grade it a D- for mby for the Western piedmont of NC and upstate. but a A- or B+ for the rest of the southeast. I know MJO is headed towards phase 8 but that is not the end all be all. Mid south could still cash in with this pattern though.
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Same, D- is fair .... SAW Snow 3x in a month basically. But as it stands now only a 2.5" Season sleet included and around .2" ICE. Was under a winter storm warning one time. It is an extreme baby step back to normal.....but PPL Can say w/e about climate changing here ect id gander to say its changed by roughly 150 miles since I was in Middle school in 2002-2005. So for ex:

Charlotte 2025 is Columbia 2002

Lynchburg 2025 is Charlotte 2002

DC 2025 is Lynchburg 2002.

Brad P said by 2030 his estimation was Charlotte would have the Climate of Birmingham AL 10yrs ago (seems a tad much) but I can confidently estimate 100-200 mile shift North over last 20yrs
 
Agreed. MJO definitely lends *some credibility... a wait and see game as always... and just how long can that SER persist anyway? lol. We are working on weekssss of a SER. Surely, it's bound to break at least one more time before winter is over. (.....no scientific basis for this comment whatsoever, just a gut feeling and a bit of hope. ha!)
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Same, D- is fair .... SAW Snow 3x in a month basically. But as it stands now only a 2.5" Season sleet included and around .2" ICE. Was under a winter storm warning one time. It is an extreme baby step back to normal.....but PPL Can say w/e about climate changing here ect id gander to say its changed by roughly 150 miles since I was in Middle school in 2002-2005. So for ex:

Charlotte 2025 is Columbia 2002

Lynchburg 2025 is Charlotte 2002

DC 2025 is Lynchburg 2002.

Brad P said by 2030 his estimation was Charlotte would have the Climate of Birmingham AL 10yrs ago (seems a tad much) but I can confidently estimate 100-200 mile shift North over last 20yrs
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2000-2004 was an amazing stretch for our area. If we put ourselves in the to the mid to late 90s we could also look back at the 80s from then and say the line had changed. It’s all relative. We are going through a bad cycle right now relative to what we remember growing up. We just saw New Orleans and Pensacola get record snowfall two weeks ago.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Same, D- is fair .... SAW Snow 3x in a month basically. But as it stands now only a 2.5" Season sleet included and around .2" ICE. Was under a winter storm warning one time. It is an extreme baby step back to normal.....but PPL Can say w/e about climate changing here ect id gander to say its changed by roughly 150 miles since I was in Middle school in 2002-2005. So for ex:

Charlotte 2025 is Columbia 2002

Lynchburg 2025 is Charlotte 2002

DC 2025 is Lynchburg 2002.

Brad P said by 2030 his estimation was Charlotte would have the Climate of Birmingham AL 10yrs ago (seems a tad much) but I can confidently estimate 100-200 mile shift North over last 20yrs
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What does that make New orleans/pensacola?

Also, he should try to do that for the mid-south... what do their 10 year means look like?
 
rburrel2 said:
What does that make New orleans/pensacola?

Also, he should try to do that for the mid-south... what do their 10 year means look like?
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Probably not the thread for this but if anything this January was reassuring for me that anything is still possible cold and snow-wise. Sure I was disappointed in the outcome for my area, but seeing record amounts of snow along the Gulf is kind of a slap in the face to some of the “it doesn’t happen anymore” jargon. To tie in with late February, let’s wait a few days to see if anything lines up before declaring winter/ snow is over.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Same, D- is fair .... SAW Snow 3x in a month basically. But as it stands now only a 2.5" Season sleet included and around .2" ICE. Was under a winter storm warning one time. It is an extreme baby step back to normal.....but PPL Can say w/e about climate changing here ect id gander to say its changed by roughly 150 miles since I was in Middle school in 2002-2005. So for ex:

Charlotte 2025 is Columbia 2002

Lynchburg 2025 is Charlotte 2002

DC 2025 is Lynchburg 2002.

Brad P said by 2030 his estimation was Charlotte would have the Climate of Birmingham AL 10yrs ago (seems a tad much) but I can confidently estimate 100-200 mile shift North over last 20yrs
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GSP also feels like the new CAE. But the one I am really surprised at is AVL. They average what, 10-12 inches per year, but the 3 year total is now at 1.9 in! Most of us in the Carolinas, and east of the Apps in general, are really in a bad streak. Hopefully it will turn around for us sometime but who knows when.
 
Southern Track said:
Would make sense with its MJO progression.
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The fact H5 is matching phase 7 so well the next week or so lends credence to the progression to phase 8 look, imo. Unless we make a turn into the cod I think we get a window at the end of the month. Seems like the MJO has a pretty reliable indicator this winter so I don’t know why we wouldn’t expect that to continue.
 
It's all speculation but I wouldn't say that Charlotte, GSP, or Raleigh is the new Midlands or further South.
It's definitely warmed but I think it's more like 25-50 miles.
The Northern upstate is like the southern upstate.
As others have pointed out maybe it's not really warmed but just part of the swings of weather.
Maybe ppl born in the 40's - 70's were just born in an anonymously Cold time those born since have been born in a warm time that will switch back.
Who knows!
Could be a lil of both.
I think we see a board wide 3" snow in the South I-20,
6-12 N of 85 in the next 1-3 years.
Jmo
 
NC ski resorts are on the edge of their seats. Models have to come around or this biblical rain is going to wash their snow base away before March 1
 
Rain Cold said:
It wants to kill the wave in P8. It's been trying to do that since it went into P4. The wave will go into P1 and you'll see the model correct colder.
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It’s been wanting to kill it all winter it seems, but it keeps going. I’d like to think you’re right and history repeats itself and we get into 8 and 1. But past years have always wanted to kill it and die right before the cold phases. So I still feel we’re on the razors edge here. Like a marble on top of a hill, which way does it go?

Last year we were hoping for the exact same save from late February. 😒 Didn’t turn in our favor. Maybe @Webberweather53 can give us some acronyms and pacific forcing background to clarify what may be likely.
 
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