That upper left corner of the image sure tells the story for me.
I want to believe it is too, but until we get to the proper MJO phase, these lows are likely going to cut. Hopefully next week works for those climo favored areas.
Agreed
The best model the past 2 months for sure.
It looks to me like they’re trying to take a blend of the modeling right now. They’ll move it south if other models start lining up with the AIFS
Snowfall footprint should be further south
I remember I made a post about this sometime last winter, but I did I look at the MJO phases for a number of major winter storms and it was surprising how many major winter storms occurred for the Carolinas with the MJO in a low amped phase 5 and 6. One of those was the February 1994 Ice/Sleet storm that I’ve noticed a similar set to on the H5 maps.
Definitely and I am still a newbie a bit with the MJO. But watching it this Winter & how it tangled together with the Winter weather we got in the South really sold me in being a believer in it. Definitely has peaked my interest in comparing phase with Winter weather in the South.
Been the theme of the winter. Euro AI leading the way
How long did it take the Euro to catch up to the Euro AI during the last two storms? If the Euro AI was that good I would think these Mets would start using it instead of the trash they have now.
Mic drop
So what should we think with this being so much further south and snowier for the SE? Well, there have been some similar looks on ensemble members. This seems so locked in.
I know SV includes all wintry precip types as snow accumulation on maps, is this a wintry mix or all snow?
Mostly snow I think, but there's some freezing rain/sleet on the southern fringes that this map counts as snow. Definitely all snow for your backyard.
Hopefully, it'll catch up to the GFS within the next few runs.
