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Pattern Failboat February

EPS signal should give this potential more than enough credibility. Now with that said, I’m much more concerned about ZR in NC/SC. FGEN front end thump aside. To me you’re running a tight rope with the SER and that leads me to think if we are going to get frozen it’ll be ZR
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS still going with a nice look mid month with strong blocking View attachment 167656View attachment 167657View attachment 167658
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That's really the chief concern at this point...getting the latter period pattern where we want it. The earlier stuff is a bonus in every regard.

There's going to be blocking in the wake of the PV split. There's going to be an active storm track. There's going to be plenty of cold around.

My hope is that blocking sets up favorably and lasts for a while and that we can get a general trough in the east. This hope is bolstered by the MJO swinging round to the cold side and the fact that this winter has sort of wanted to be colder in the east (which I know is a weak meteorological reason).

We're not going to see winter storm after winter storm after winter storm in the SE, but the latter half of the month into March should be a legitimate window for a couple of significant threats.
 
belowfreezing said:
You guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
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I'm not talented but we have to be realistic and also remember our climatology. N of I 40 and above 2000 ft are always going to have the best chance and get the most winter weather for a reason. That's where my money would go. I always hope I have a shot too but it doesn't work out more often than it does.
 
KyloG said:
12z AI a ColdRain and Grit jackpot

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Interesting that the 12z Euro is a little too slow with the storm and goes front end thump to rain/freezing rain... but the Euro AI is now a little too quick with the storm and doesn't build in the cold press enough ahead of time. Though verbatim I think AI buried Northern NC. Which is probably where we're heading.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All 3 ens.View attachment 167650View attachment 167651View attachment 167652
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When looking at the ensembles, I like to take the "footprint" of heaviest accumulation approach to get a good idea of where things are going. Hopefully it keeps trending south, with more and more blocking, pushing the TPV and the boundary south. But right now the ensembles are just 3 different ways to show me this is progged as a N Virginia and DC storm for snow. And that makes sense to me based on the amount of ridging in the SE (onset frozen is likely on the table with CAD)

After that though, who knows. Hopefully afterward we block ourselves into a storm the AIFS was showing a couple days ago.
 
For Fun - The Euro Weeklies Control says that there's more chances to follow. I believe it has the system next week and two or 3 more afterwards.
1742515200-z9k9ugjqybo.png
 
KyloG said:
12z AI fun

View attachment 167671View attachment 167672View attachment 167673
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That's got to include sleet/ZR right??? If not, AIFS turning into the DGX. 15-18 inches for mby? lol.

BAM is honking the late February timeframe, but heavily favoring a NE/Mid-Atl bonanza. Congrats? Hopefully they're wrong on the storm track, and it's further south than they forecast the later we go in February, but their analogs are heavy with the SE ridge so it makes sense. I'm not sure what to make out of the pattern starting next week honestly.

BAM! Update
 
SnowNiner said:
That's got to include sleet/ZR right??? If not, AIFS turning into the DGX. 15-18 inches for mby? lol.

BAM is honking the late February timeframe, but heavily favoring a NE/Mid-Atl bonanza. Congrats? Hopefully they're wrong on the storm track, and it's further south than they forecast the later we go in February, but their analogs are heavy with the SE ridge so it makes sense. I'm not sure what to make out of the pattern starting next week honestly.

BAM! Update
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Here's where the 850 line hangs out for the majority of the storm. Not super cold, so I don't think there would be widespread ice amounts.
850th.us_ma.png
 
I’m curious to know what happens after this system of interest (2/13-2/16)…could certainly be active during that timeframe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
AI has more or less had an event for the past 4-5 days...impressive for consistency. Though I feel like I just jinxed it...

View attachment 167686
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Just shows you how good this model is. It's jostled around some, but it hasn't trended in any one direction and has kept the same general path of winter weather the whole time.

If you did one of these gifs for the Euro/CMC/GFS.... they'd be all over the place.
 
rburrel2 said:
Just shows you how good this model is. It's jostled around some, but it hasn't trended in any one direction and has kept the same general path of winter weather the whole time.

If you did one of these gifs for the Euro/CMC/GFS.... they'd be all over the place.
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Consistency doesn't always equal skill. If you recall, the AI Models were consistent with having the wave come in a couple of days later for the last storm. Sure they did well with the first system, but that was within 5 days.

Don't get too comfortable with the AI solutions in this range
 
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