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Pattern Failboat February

sorry folks but this is my storm
Hey don’t leave me out here! In all seriousness I don’t think I’ve seen an Ensemble put a 6 inch mean over my head when the storm threat is still very far out.
 
That was probably the best AI run yet - more than likely all snow N&W of 85. Still think the middle ground between roboeuro and regular euro is where we'll end up.
Agreed. You’ll never convince me otherwise that the best place to be is just to the NW of the transition line. Best rates, best qpf.
 
That was probably the best AI run yet - more than likely all snow N&W of 85. Still think the middle ground between roboeuro and regular euro is where we'll end up.
Hopefully at this time next week we'll be arguing whether the hell-like ground temps will cut into totals.

The regular Euro has the high starting out in a nearly perfect CAD location but tries to keep it a rain vs. snow event with very little IP/FR in between. Surface temps aren't very impressive on the regular Euro and the low plows right into the CAD, which is normally a GFS bias. Euro kind of reminds me of the late February 2015 event for my area where we ended up with a couple inches of slop with temperatures hovering right at 32/ 33 the entire event.
 
You guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
 
Mega wedge look but if we can’t suppress heights we’ll get rained on. Getting close for some of our NC people IMG_1383.png
 
You guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
CAD "NORMALLY" will be better than modeled. But that would be shallow Cold probably the further south you got. Wedge will Normally bounce back n forth between a line from GSP - Split Meck County - Split Wake county
 
Stronger CAD .... not sure about the mid levels yet. Right now it looks like there will be a storm, but the details are far from settled.
 
It's all about who do believe has the correct evolution with the H5 setup. You pump the SER and it'll be hard for anybody to score anything but cold rain. If you believe the EURO/EURO AI/EPS, then traditional CAD areas need to be watching closely. I know which group I trust more at least from a H5 progression. Still plenty of time for things to change one way or the other. You start getting past day 4 and it's really hard to trust any model or ensemble these days. If the EURO/EPS/AI hold through 12z, then I think we should be taking this one seriously.
 
64bb58c6c4994b00ee25fe514e1e3910.gif

GFS making adjustments toward a -NAO and building heights over Greenland


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CAD "NORMALLY" will be better than modeled. But that would be shallow Cold probably the further south you got. Wedge will Normally bounce back n forth between a line from GSP - Split Meck County - Split Wake county
The position of the HP and strength will determine the depth and how far south the CAD is. I can guarantee that isn't nailed down and won't be until a couple days out. The fact that there is a strong damming signal at this point is the key takeaway right now. I've seen Cad (winter or anytime) where ne ga and oconee be 5 degrees colder than gsp and also seen it go the other way.
 
I like how the best weather tool in the world has the resolution of a third world model and how you can squint and pretend the best colors are over your house
You stare at that picture long enough you will see an image of Brick Tamland.
 
Added roughly an inch from 18Z - 12Z (3 cycles for CAD areas in NC verbatim. IK Too far out ....

A - 10% -20% Chance of anything of note (Watching for fun)

B- 30% - 50% Chance of anything of note (Worth staying up at night starting Thursday night )

C - 50% - 70% Chance of anything of note....(Worth staying up for Starting Thursday night)
Screenshot 2025-02-03 133415.png
 
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