Hey don’t leave me out here! In all seriousness I don’t think I’ve seen an Ensemble put a 6 inch mean over my head when the storm threat is still very far out.sorry folks but this is my storm
Agreed. You’ll never convince me otherwise that the best place to be is just to the NW of the transition line. Best rates, best qpf.That was probably the best AI run yet - more than likely all snow N&W of 85. Still think the middle ground between roboeuro and regular euro is where we'll end up.
Hopefully at this time next week we'll be arguing whether the hell-like ground temps will cut into totals.That was probably the best AI run yet - more than likely all snow N&W of 85. Still think the middle ground between roboeuro and regular euro is where we'll end up.
ICON with a nice snow for the VA/NC border and I like the setup here too..
View attachment 167628View attachment 167629
If it plays out like everything else this year, AI easily.
GFS has been flopping around like a fish. The Euro AI has been showing a consistent solution for several runs. Got to lean toward the Euro AI until it shows something different.
Aleutian low sealing the deal for AI. Changes everything. GFS has been slowly trending that way
Still aways different than euro and eirAIAleutian low sealing the deal for AI. Changes everything. GFS has been slowly trending that way
CAD "NORMALLY" will be better than modeled. But that would be shallow Cold probably the further south you got. Wedge will Normally bounce back n forth between a line from GSP - Split Meck County - Split Wake countyYou guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
No talent needed here. 1-40 north all day everyday.You guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
That's if you believe the GFS is correct. I do not.Mega wedge look but if we can’t suppress heights we’ll get rained on. Getting close for some of our NC people View attachment 167631
The position of the HP and strength will determine the depth and how far south the CAD is. I can guarantee that isn't nailed down and won't be until a couple days out. The fact that there is a strong damming signal at this point is the key takeaway right now. I've seen Cad (winter or anytime) where ne ga and oconee be 5 degrees colder than gsp and also seen it go the other way.CAD "NORMALLY" will be better than modeled. But that would be shallow Cold probably the further south you got. Wedge will Normally bounce back n forth between a line from GSP - Split Meck County - Split Wake county
Cmc always cold. It’s cold biasHow's the Canadian look?
The mountains and I-40 north for winter precip.How's the Canadian look?
Has the storm. It just ain't anything special.12z Euro must suck![]()
Not as cold been showing either12z Euro must suck![]()
You stare at that picture long enough you will see an image of Brick Tamland.I like how the best weather tool in the world has the resolution of a third world model and how you can squint and pretend the best colors are over your house
Added roughly an inch from 18Z - 12Z (3 cycles for CAD areas in NC verbatim. IK Too far out ....
Going up an inch per run here. One more move like that and it’s winter storm warning criteria on an ensemble.