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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Hey don’t leave me out here! In all seriousness I don’t think I’ve seen an Ensemble put a 6 inch mean over my head when the storm threat is still very far out.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Agreed. You’ll never convince me otherwise that the best place to be is just to the NW of the transition line. Best rates, best qpf.
CltNative90
Member
Hopefully at this time next week we'll be arguing whether the hell-like ground temps will cut into totals.
The regular Euro has the high starting out in a nearly perfect CAD location but tries to keep it a rain vs. snow event with very little IP/FR in between. Surface temps aren't very impressive on the regular Euro and the low plows right into the CAD, which is normally a GFS bias. Euro kind of reminds me of the late February 2015 event for my area where we ended up with a couple inches of slop with temperatures hovering right at 32/ 33 the entire event.
rburrel2
Member
The latest GFS graphcast(00z) was gonna be a nuke job. Here's the last 240hr panels. Precip is shifting north here and the 850mb temps are still pressing South.
SnowmanVol99
Member
GFS says what cold air, all liquid south of the Ohio River. Kentucky and Tennessee a cold rain. North Carolina pretty much misses the entire wave.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Those strong highs sliding SE out of western Canada is a nice look
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If it plays out like everything else this year, AI easily.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS showing an icy mess on Monday now for I40-north in NC.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GFS has been flopping around like a fish. The Euro AI has been showing a consistent solution for several runs. Got to lean toward the Euro AI until it shows something different.
Aleutian low sealing the deal for AI. Changes everything. GFS has been slowly trending that way
tennessee storm
Member
Still aways different than euro and eirAI
belowfreezing
Member
You guys are all talented. What is your gut telling you on next week's storm? I-40 North Storm, I-85 mix, or does it come further south with the CAD?
Mega wedge look but if we can’t suppress heights we’ll get rained on. Getting close for some of our NC people 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
CAD "NORMALLY" will be better than modeled. But that would be shallow Cold probably the further south you got. Wedge will Normally bounce back n forth between a line from GSP - Split Meck County - Split Wake county
No talent needed here. 1-40 north all day everyday.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Stronger CAD .... not sure about the mid levels yet. Right now it looks like there will be a storm, but the details are far from settled.
iGRXY
Member
That's if you believe the GFS is correct. I do not.
belowfreezing
Member
Hope the EURO AI is right but have a feeling it will be an I-40 North too.
iGRXY
Member
It's all about who do believe has the correct evolution with the H5 setup. You pump the SER and it'll be hard for anybody to score anything but cold rain. If you believe the EURO/EURO AI/EPS, then traditional CAD areas need to be watching closely. I know which group I trust more at least from a H5 progression. Still plenty of time for things to change one way or the other. You start getting past day 4 and it's really hard to trust any model or ensemble these days. If the EURO/EPS/AI hold through 12z, then I think we should be taking this one seriously.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS making adjustments toward a -NAO and building heights over Greenland
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Oconeexman
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The position of the HP and strength will determine the depth and how far south the CAD is. I can guarantee that isn't nailed down and won't be until a couple days out. The fact that there is a strong damming signal at this point is the key takeaway right now. I've seen Cad (winter or anytime) where ne ga and oconee be 5 degrees colder than gsp and also seen it go the other way.
rburrel2
Member
We're still a few days away from the GFS caving to the Euro/Euro AI. Also want to point out the ICON looks good at hr 180, as does the mogreps and GFS graphcast.
Bigedd09
Member
How's the Canadian look?
tennessee storm
Member
Cmc always cold. It’s cold bias
JHS
Member
The mountains and I-40 north for winter precip.
Cary_Snow95
Member
12z Euro must suck 
Has the storm. It just ain't anything special.12z Euro must suck
Models continue to struggle after the Day 10 period.
We really got to get to the proper phase to get glory going for areas of the South.
tennessee storm
Member
Not as cold been showing either12z Euro must suck
You stare at that picture long enough you will see an image of Brick Tamland.
Yeah the euro wasn’t great, but the EPS seemingly looks better again
Bigedd09
Member
EPS slightly better for CAD areas
rburrel2
Member
Trends are good.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Added roughly an inch from 18Z - 12Z (3 cycles for CAD areas in NC verbatim. IK Too far out ....
A - 10% -20% Chance of anything of note (Watching for fun)
B- 30% - 50% Chance of anything of note (Worth staying up at night starting Thursday night )
C - 50% - 70% Chance of anything of note....(Worth staying up for Starting Thursday night)
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Going up an inch per run here. One more move like that and it’s winter storm warning criteria on an ensemble.
EPS looks better on the front end for snow but worst on the back end for wintry in general. Interesting 
