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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
rburrel2
Member
Big increase on the CMCE for everyone.
Is this good ? 
Yup CMCE is good because it’s pressing down on the SE ridge this run, which introduces colder thermals. I guess this is the trend we want here, only 7-8 days out. From here on out we need to watch the pattern upstream from the storm, the more more you squash the SER, the better a run will likely be regarding that Potential 
EPS keeps improving. Notice the snow footprint moving south 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I would assume there was more suppression due to the -NAO block/PV lobe over southern Canada
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Cooking
rburrel2
Member
00z euro ai is an absolute banger, back to being cold with the perfect low track. Snow to sleet for most, heavy accumulations.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Euro and AI Euro are very similar at hour 216
Six Mile Wx
Member
Euro AI holds the wedge longer for snow in the upstate and most of NC
rburrel2
Member
Couple thoughts:
The Euro and the Euro AI are pretty similar with the cold press out ahead of the potential storm. That's good because they both are plenty cold for a solid hit for most on the board.
The Euro AI is a little flatter/faster with the storm wave, and is thus more snowy and less mixy. It has been rock solid with this evolution and I'd be surprised(but not shocked, we are 200hrs out after all) if it's off by much in the final outcome in this regard. The Euro is a little more amped and slower and thus brings the system a little father north and has more mix to rain issues, but overall, they're similar.
The CMC/GFS don't have a clue and their evolutions aren't in the same ball park, neither with the Euro/Euro AI or with each other. I expect this is just bad models being bad and they'll trend towards the Euro/Euro Ai.
The Euro and the Euro AI are pretty similar with the cold press out ahead of the potential storm. That's good because they both are plenty cold for a solid hit for most on the board.
The Euro AI is a little flatter/faster with the storm wave, and is thus more snowy and less mixy. It has been rock solid with this evolution and I'd be surprised(but not shocked, we are 200hrs out after all) if it's off by much in the final outcome in this regard. The Euro is a little more amped and slower and thus brings the system a little father north and has more mix to rain issues, but overall, they're similar.
The CMC/GFS don't have a clue and their evolutions aren't in the same ball park, neither with the Euro/Euro AI or with each other. I expect this is just bad models being bad and they'll trend towards the Euro/Euro Ai.
rburrel2
Member
The 00z Euro AI run featured the most vicious strat split yet...
NCSNOW
Member
Pretty decent Frost at the house this a.m. Help keep things asleep this week.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The CMC ensemble has a couple of options for the way this system plays out: 1) some members have one main surface low in the gulf that moves off the SE coast similar to what the Euro/AI is showing. 2) other members have an elongated frontal boundary with strong surface highs building south out of western Canada that equates to a more widespread snow/ice event basically along the I-40 corridor from OK eastward. Just noting a couple of scenarios from the members here.
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rburrel2
Member
Cold press is stronger on the 06z Euro... That's Yuge.
I can honestly, see us here in central SC, getting more wintry wx again if trends continues.
Bigedd09
Member
Hope I'm wrong but I am concerned about the SE ridge in this pattern. It is a snow lover's dream pattern for the MA and could be for the Carolina's IF the SE ridge could relax a little. Nonetheless, we'd be threading the needle no matter what in the SE. Sometimes a bit of a SE ridge can aid a stronger winter storm. Could be a couple great winter storms or rain. Definitely not too worried about suppression.
rburrel2
Member
I don't hate this. Already in to phase 6. Hopefully in to phase 8 before mid-month.
I’m hoping the day 10ish deal works out for many on here (especially for folks that haven’t got hit good yet) but I think a big opportunity comes for a board wide risk again once we get into phase 8 & second half of Feb.
And miss me with the ole it’s to late in the game to score crap. I think many forget what we can do in late February & early March.
But I do hope the system next week works out. I’m excited to track it in general even if my area likely gets nothing.
If we really block up both oceans like the 0z eps mean has I'm a much bigger fan of right after valentines day.
The system everyone is talking about certainly has legs but for mby climo says it's not that exciting unless I like ice to rain
rburrel2
Member
06z Euro AI didn't even flinch a little bit. It's biblical
Looks like it has front end snow all the way down to Columbia on Tuesday(they may have boundary layer issues as depicted before the wedge builds in). Super prolonged overrunning event. Probably some 20+inch totals for the area's that stay all snow.
Looks like it has front end snow all the way down to Columbia on Tuesday(they may have boundary layer issues as depicted before the wedge builds in). Super prolonged overrunning event. Probably some 20+inch totals for the area's that stay all snow.
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Tsappfrog20
Member
Will you share the Maps once you’re able to get them please?
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rburrel2
Member
I'm just looking at the crummy maps here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type":["Experimental: AIFS"]}
It'll be an hour before better maps come out.
rburrel2
Member
This is pretty ideal surface pressure situation for most of the people on this board. It's generally what the Euro AI has been showing for a few days now.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Two surface lows with one over the Ne Gulf and another off the SE coast. I can see how the SE ridge influence can cause a solution like that. A couple of the 6z GEFS members did that as well.
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rburrel2
Member
Just re-visiting this post I made on January 24th to say the Euro AI won this battle in blow out fashion. (was around 8-9 days out from the "threat").
Meanwhile, Columbia will have multiple opportunities to hit 80 degrees this week. Wild torch through Sunday. 
Bigedd09
Member
No we don't like, we love.
I like th one with all the red in it from the other day, but this one is still pretty good. I see the AI has learned what to do with SE Wake. Good model.
SnowNiner
Member
I have to agree. For me personally next weeks system is still currently too much SE ridge. We can get some frozen in the front end, but my guess this is ice to rain in mby as well. First guess the MA wins this one. Mountains however also may win too so I may chase. Keeping an eye on it. If we keep pressing and pushing the ridge down maybe.
After this IF we get to phase 8, if EPS is right, we do beat down the SE ridge and maybe we get back to a good pattern. But highly skeptical. Anybody remember we already did this exactly one year ago? Will this time be different?
sorry folks but this is my storm
Tsappfrog20
Member
LickWx
Member
I’d argue it’s DC’s storm really , means go crazy up there
I like how the best weather tool in the world has the resolution of a third world model and how you can squint and pretend the best colors are over your house
This is correct
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That was probably the best AI run yet - more than likely all snow N&W of 85. Still think the middle ground between roboeuro and regular euro is where we'll end up.