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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Interesting changes in the pacific this GFS run early on. Big changes to the AI early on around d5
Man 
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
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Nice winter storm stretching from Tulsa to Raleigh on the 12Z GFS around 200 hours out.
rburrel2
Member
The CMC was gonna be biblical post hr 240... The potential with this is through the roof. Arctic cold is still pressing south hard and a monster event is just beginning to crank across the mid-south.
packfan98
Moderator
Perfect CAD setup!
The progression of the building CAD on the GFS is wild. What a temp gradient.
Too bad the CMC is dead to me. Great look though.
These are some pretty big shifts we have been seeing for the last 24-36 hours.
Haha:
packfan98
Moderator
Is this worthy of the Epic Run thread?
rburrel2
Member
Confidence is growing for the full ridge/bridge Arctic block... and with that is gonna come some wild solutions in the long range. Should be a fun week of model watching.
jetstream30
Member
Definitely some wild solutions from a major snowstorm to a major ice storm or a mix of it all. The blocking looks great.
NCSNOW
Member
Mby
3.5 snow
3 2 sleet
1.29 Freezing Rain accum.
Thats Armageddon if it verefied
Sign me up for the AI generated snow of 18-24 instead.
Thing to watch is the qpf at 2.0 plus. All frozen. Unless its overwhelmingly sleet, you gone be sitting in the dark.
At 10:1 ratio,snow will wreck limbs. Freezing rain, no brainer.
3.5 snow
3 2 sleet
1.29 Freezing Rain accum.
Thats Armageddon if it verefied
Sign me up for the AI generated snow of 18-24 instead.
Thing to watch is the qpf at 2.0 plus. All frozen. Unless its overwhelmingly sleet, you gone be sitting in the dark.
At 10:1 ratio,snow will wreck limbs. Freezing rain, no brainer.
Yeah I mean for the specific day.
rburrel2
Member
That's a meaty block.
rburrel2
Member
That February torch is going up in smoke...
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Decent winter storm depicted by the GFS for parts of the upper south, upstate SC, NC, and the mid Atlantic
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wow
Member
Yeah.. that's how they all start. Then the NPac Ridge rolls east and we end up our big beautiful baja low. Fool me once... lol
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Woof GFS was about to do it again around the 18th or the end of the run 
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If you recall, with our last storm, we were worried about a cutter initially. Look at how that turned out
It’s perfect. I booked my annual sugar mountain ski trip for the weekend of the 21st. Should be some nice late season conditions up in the high country
Not a huge amount of -AAM but weakly negative. -AAM is in favor of a more retracted jet. This is reasonable, and should temper over extension issues given it’s not largely negative but just enough to keep it in bay. Also a reason for the western ridge rollovers this winter has been from to much pac jet 
Seems like all year we’ve trended toward wave separation post arctic boundary. I like our chances. Especially WNC in a late season setup like this
Decent winter storm depicted by the GFS for parts of the upper south, upstate SC, NC, and the mid Atlantic
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if we got a super extended pacific jet here (we won’t), we’re getting into mid to late February and the shorter wavelengths can easily compensate for that
Here’s an inaccurate Atari clown map for @Rain Cold to drool over until 18z
Some big -NAO trends on the 12z ens. normally strat attacks and there effects start out with blocking rather quickly. Might be seeing that here begin 
Recipe for generators. SW flow aloft with a SE ridge but low level cold and sfc high pressure 
rburrel2
Member
Is it crazy that I may be more excited about the late February potential? It looks like this Day 9-10 threat is just an appetizer for the main event.
Euro dropping the Arctic on us again towards the end
rburrel2
Member
This is scary agreement...
Euro ends off with a big cold shot and also big split flow pattern with a active pacific jet 
Bigedd09
Member
Unfortunately, I think many of us are major due for an ice storm.
rburrel2
Member
Good thing for Columbia folks.... even if you miss out on this first threat,(who knows, you might not or we all might miss it) but the day 15+ potential has everyone in the game... could be another Florida snow storm.