This Mississippi gradient late in the run is wild 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
John1122
Member
Soaking wet in the Tennessee Valley and into Eastern Kentucky and Western Virgina. The GFS throws out 8 to 10 inches of QPF that run, and in some of those spots 40-50 percent of it falls into a sub-freezing airmass.
Woof. Gefs following its OP 
JQPublic
Member
When’s the last time it split like this and delivered? I was reading Feb ‘89?
0z Euro is a major winter storm day 10-11
EPS looked much much better as well. Stout CAD sig. Perhaps the AI is on to something 
This is a full on cave to the AIFS to a extended pacific jet leading to a full on EC trough… insane
The initial jet extension trend
The result from the jet extension is beautiful
Never expected this to fully happen in one run of the EPS suite. AI is legit
The initial jet extension trend
The result from the jet extension is beautiful
Never expected this to fully happen in one run of the EPS suite. AI is legit
EPS basically is what we just got out of 
FWIW the 00z AIFS is basically a re run of the Feb 2014 winter storm. Carbon copy
lexxnchloe
Member
LC
I would rate the threat for a major winter storm during the medium range at about 4 in 5. There are three candidate systems in the northern Pacific Basin, while at the same time the various numerical models are showing strong Alaskan ridging building toward and encompassing the North Pole. The heat ridge covering Bermuda and the Greater Antilles will slowly weaken, and the heavier cold values will slowly push the tropical regime out of Texas, the Gulf States, and Appalachia. But the warmth may hold out over the Eastern Seaboard, depending on the exact track of the 500MB and surface low. I suspect that a Colorado/Trinidad "B" or Piedmont storm will occur between February 8 - 10. Precipitation outlines now warn of extensive ice and snow from Oklahoma into Pennsylvania and New York, but I would not feel comfortable trying to predict snow/ice/rain transitions this early. Just beware of the coming cold snap to the right of the Continental Divide, and the risk for a prominent winter weather event (or two) striking much of the country in the second and third week of February.
I would rate the threat for a major winter storm during the medium range at about 4 in 5. There are three candidate systems in the northern Pacific Basin, while at the same time the various numerical models are showing strong Alaskan ridging building toward and encompassing the North Pole. The heat ridge covering Bermuda and the Greater Antilles will slowly weaken, and the heavier cold values will slowly push the tropical regime out of Texas, the Gulf States, and Appalachia. But the warmth may hold out over the Eastern Seaboard, depending on the exact track of the 500MB and surface low. I suspect that a Colorado/Trinidad "B" or Piedmont storm will occur between February 8 - 10. Precipitation outlines now warn of extensive ice and snow from Oklahoma into Pennsylvania and New York, but I would not feel comfortable trying to predict snow/ice/rain transitions this early. Just beware of the coming cold snap to the right of the Continental Divide, and the risk for a prominent winter weather event (or two) striking much of the country in the second and third week of February.
Six Mile Wx
Member
AI pushes the cold in on Monday the 10th and we have multiple shots of snow (almost continuous) all week long until Friday. Insane
rburrel2
Member
Well things really escalated overnight guys. I hope you got your sleep in because it’s tracking time now.
rburrel2
Member
What I love about this threat and what the euro ai has been consistently showing, is a very far south/ northern gulf surface low track. Plus sustained CAD showing up on every run. A perfect recipe for a major snow storm.
Six Mile Wx
Member
GFS coming around 
Six Mile Wx
Member
Ensembles should start following the Op if this has legs.
packfan98
Moderator
rburrel2
Member
The Day 9-11 threat is real and legit, but it feels like we are just getting started with that one. What's to come the following few weeks could get crazy.
Last edited:
packfan98
Moderator
For us digital snow lovers from the 6 GEFS.
rburrel2
Member
Man this thing escalated quickly. Euro AI has snow breaking out at hr 204, GFS hr 246, and Euro at hr 246. Hits on all 3 of the main global models... Hard to bet against the Euro AI inside of 200hrs when it's been showing a similar evolution for 7-8 runs in a row.
Tarheelwx
Member
FWIW, the Canadian at 00z looked primed at 240 to kick out something big in the next few frames.
TW
TW
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
An insane storm really. 2” of slop in central wake County to 15” of snow in butner
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another classic example of models being overly confident in a given forecast outcome ahead of a potential split type polar vortex disruption.
Definitely reminds me of Feb 2018 in that regard
Definitely reminds me of Feb 2018 in that regard
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I agree with the ground hog. At least 6 more weeks of winter this year.
Favorable alignment of the MJO and a polar vortex disruption in February point to winter trying to stick around well into march this year
Favorable alignment of the MJO and a polar vortex disruption in February point to winter trying to stick around well into march this year
rburrel2
Member
06z Euro AI went Burger boom again. Prolonged over running snow event for the upstate.
Last edited:
Tsappfrog20
Member
Allan is starting to mention the possibility…
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
wow
Member
That'll pretty much fill in the snow hole near 85 for total seasonal snow amounts. I'm all for it.
Tarheelwx
Member
Rburrell2,
Do you have an image of the 06 Euro.? I assume it is the AI. One thing to note is all of the models with the storm have significant freezing rain and or sleet as well.
TW
Do you have an image of the 06 Euro.? I assume it is the AI. One thing to note is all of the models with the storm have significant freezing rain and or sleet as well.
TW
Snuck in another freeze amongst the torch with 30.0 this morning. Must have been confirmation to the groundhog.
rburrel2
Member
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Well there it is
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
- 314
- Reaction score
- 693
Dang! I’m just happy to see a return to cold weather on the table! I’ve lost 50 pounds since it was warm/hot weather.. I have no clothes that fit except winter stuff ! I really want the cold to stick around til I get some more money!! 
Just saw where Feb 12 is the full snow moon. Yall reel it in!!!
Just saw where Feb 12 is the full snow moon. Yall reel it in!!!
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The sudden sensible weather changes in the models in the extended from looking like a possible torch to now cold/ice/snow harkens back to the idea that things are very volatile this month. One small adjustment to the overall pattern has outsized sensible impacts
albertwilsonjr
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This trend is likely far from over & it’s already embarrassing. Feels a lot like Feb 2018’s split type SSWE
Brent
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Certainly looks like the 00z EPS, I’d say that’s pretty good agreement at H5
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk