Euro isn’t bad
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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
Euro AI hanging on to the 13th potential.
AI continues to provide a lot of hope. The 00z run had multiple hits mid month. Euro wasn't bad. The gradient inches South deeper into the run. This is a pattern where many will score, but us in the South has to wait it out.
Tarheelwx
Member
Both the AI and Euro had major winter storm(s) for NC out in the 280-300 range. I’m thinking we get a few more chances mid Feb to Early March. My thinking is that we’re back to our late December pattern where we get 2-3 weeks of warmth before going to cold for a few weeks. Hopefully this final “cold” period will have more to offer in the form or precip.
TW
TW
I think a lot of dots connect for us later in the month.
LickWx
Member
NWS has 76 here next Thursday, chance at 80 perhaps before chilly March
weather bubba
Member
If the Carolinas and other areas do score in the period around Valentine's day I hope it will be a big snowstorm. The snowfall record for RDU on Feburary 14 is six inches recorded in 1913. That's a record that can be broken with a decent sized snowfall accumulation.
This been talked about a lot by SD and others...but with model agreement on a strat split can't be bad news for cold.
But we need the trough axis to slide a little further east.
But we need the trough axis to slide a little further east.
tennessee storm
Member
If it’s a chilly March. It be first week at best…. Lol
Ice storm printer look
LickWx
Member
Ehh, I mean kinda sort of yeah averages are near 70 or over across most the south by the end but yeah the first half prolly gon be mostly 50s and maybe a few 60s or 70s . Least we will see, could be warm who knows , but rn looks like a cold March . Think 2018, 2013,2014 , hopefully not as cold
LickWx
Member
CFS for March, but yeah this is useless at this range, won’t matter for another 3 weeks what it shows. Currently just shows feb pattern rolling on
This pattern coming is going to be a menace with the trough elongated across the US and the sharp temp gradient from south to north.
LickWx
Member
The AI has been bouncing around with where/how blocking sets up, which impacts how troughing/ridging set up over the lower 48.
We're probably going to eventually see a lot of icy/Miller B threats, as opposed to Gulf lows.
It's easy to flip this from 71 and sunny to 37 and light rain and vice versa. I think the majority of this work week is warm. After that it's 50/50
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Nearly all guidance showing a -AO/-NAO by mid February
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I would rather have that for now; second half of Feb might be too late for many. Historically we can all see snow in late Feb and early March but that seems to be different now. I honestly cannot remember the last time I have seen any accumulating snow after V-day.
Nearly all guidance showing a -AO/-NAO by mid February
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It’s a matter of time before it happens again. Things might be lining up for some late month early March stuff. MJO phase & all.
There is definitely a strong winter battle zone setting up in February. The bad news is it’s through Pennsylvania. The good news is that’s where we want our high pressure when it comes time for us to score. There should be plenty of snowpack
Lay the foundation then deliver the boom.
rburrel2
Member
The strat split bull crap almost never pans out.. but dang, it's looking legit this time. If that really happens like what's being depicted combined with the mjo progression could make the second half of February go boom.
12z GFS shows an ice storm for CAD areas in NC at day 11. 12z Canadian is showing this at day 10:
Lots of conflicting output in the models. Believe nothing at this point...
Lots of conflicting output in the models. Believe nothing at this point...
rburrel2
Member
Well that's an interesting look on the 12z Euro.... Good things coming second half of Feb. I'm all in.
rburrel2
Member
Sign me up for the SD ridge bridge special.
Dawg that -AO will DELIVER THE BOOM!
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah break out fishing gear out soon
BHS1975
Member
We'll find out tomorrow. lol
The models have been bouncing around with how blocking sets up. This is one of the better configurations that has been shown and what we should root for.
Even if we don't get an ideal look up top, cold should still be dislodged into the lower 48. My guess is that we're going to have a lot of upcoming conversations about CAD.
The models have been hinting at a D10ish ice/mix event for the upper SE for a while, so it's definitely worth watching.
Within the next 7-10 days, we'll be getting ourselves ready for some long nights. My advice? Rest up while you can.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The stratosphere definitely can’t hurt us here. When you have a strong/persistent ridge over Scandinavia and Alaska, this is normally how you get polar vortex splits. Classic wave 2
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes the big -NAO on the EPS. Not surprised
Pops
Member
Yeah euro LITTLE cold late in run..lol
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I'm going to stay cautiously optimistic on any return to cold/winter. This is still a long ways out and we know how the models tend to throw us head-fakes, plus we're talking about 2nd half of Feb here. If these looks are still showing next weekend then maybe I can be a little more confident.
I would be cautiously optimistic until the day of.
NCSNOW
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Winter will return at some point. I highly doubt we're torching the whole month into early March.
Brent
Member