Euro isn’t bad
If it’s a chilly March. It be first week at best…. LolNWS has 76 here next Thursday, chance at 80 perhaps before chilly March
Ice storm printer lookThis been talked about a lot by SD and others...but with model agreement on a strat split can't be bad news for cold.
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But we need the trough axis to slide a little further east.
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Ehh, I mean kinda sort of yeah averages are near 70 or over across most the south by the end but yeah the first half prolly gon be mostly 50s and maybe a few 60s or 70s . Least we will see, could be warm who knows , but rn looks like a cold March . Think 2018, 2013,2014 , hopefully not as coldIf it’s a chilly March. It be first week at best…. Lol
Going to suck to be in Richmond if you like warmth . Might eat into our warm days down here being so closeThis pattern coming is going to be a menace with the trough elongated across the US and the sharp temp gradient from south to north.
The AI has been bouncing around with where/how blocking sets up, which impacts how troughing/ridging set up over the lower 48.This been talked about a lot by SD and others...but with model agreement on a strat split can't be bad news for cold.
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But we need the trough axis to slide a little further east.
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It's easy to flip this from 71 and sunny to 37 and light rain and vice versa. I think the majority of this work week is warm. After that it's 50/50Going to suck to be in Richmond if you like warmth . Might eat into our warm days down here being so close
I would rather have that for now; second half of Feb might be too late for many. Historically we can all see snow in late Feb and early March but that seems to be different now. I honestly cannot remember the last time I have seen any accumulating snow after V-day.![]()
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Nearly all guidance showing a -AO/-NAO by mid February
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It’s a matter of time before it happens again. Things might be lining up for some late month early March stuff. MJO phase & all.I would rather have that for now; second half of Feb might be too late for many. Historically we can all see snow in late Feb and early March but that seems to be different now. I honestly cannot remember the last time I have seen any accumulating snow after V-day.
Lay the foundation then deliver the boom.There is definitely a strong winter battle zone setting up in February. The bad news is it’s through Pennsylvania. The good news is that’s where we want our high pressure when it comes time for us to score. There should be plenty of snowpack
Dawg that -AO will DELIVER THE BOOM!
Yeah break out fishing gear out soon12z GFS shows an ice storm for CAD areas in NC at day 11. 12z Canadian is showing this at day 10:
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Lots of conflicting output in the models. Believe nothing at this point...
The models have been bouncing around with how blocking sets up. This is one of the better configurations that has been shown and what we should root for.
The strat split bull crap almost never pans out.. but dang, it's looking legit this time. If that really happens like what's being depicted combined with the mjo progression could make the second half of February go boom.
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I would be cautiously optimistic until the day of.I'm going to stay cautiously optimistic on any return to cold/winter. This is still a long ways out and we know how the models tend to throw us head-fakes, plus we're talking about 2nd half of Feb here. If these looks are still showing next weekend then maybe I can be a little more confident.
It's easy to flip this from 71 and sunny to 37 and light rain and vice versa. I think the majority of this work week is warm. After that it's 50/50