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Pattern Failboat February

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Mid FEB split of the SPV by the Euro


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KyloG said:
Here you go...looks meaty

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What does the DeepSeek AI model say? It's superior I hear, lol. That's a nice clown map though. That would be glorious.

SD said:
I don't trust out of mjo phase cold until hour 0 so I'm always going to be skeptical
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Agreed 100%. No way in hades do I have any confidence in a cold February, let alone the last half of February after the last 10 years. Especially with the models looking "tucky" with the trough out west, and the mjo wanting to currently tease us with dying just short of where we need it. My guess is we SE ridge and the trough is in the west through February until it stares me in the face otherwise from a week out.

I have slight hope, since the mjo plots seems to have been dying out premature, the cold is on our side this year, and the strat may cooperate. But so skeptical. Low key side-eye.

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A negatively tilted and equatorward shifted storm track over the North Atlantic, large Scandinavian ridge, -PNA, & a pacific mjo orbit are all pointing to an impending -NAO regime in and around week 3-4. All classic precursor signals

Also the pacific mjo - negative nao teleconnection is stronger in La Niña winters like this year
 
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February looks very 50/50 split in whether we torch or go into a deep freezer and the line between the 2 is razor thin. But our typical cold spring (March, April, 1st half of May) looks like it's going to be ongoing like years past. It'll make any winter weather shots harder, but ongoing 40's and low 50's for highs especially in March and April seems likely especially with PV split looking likely and MJO going into the left side or COD.
 
iGRXY said:
February looks very 50/50 split in whether we torch or go into a deep freezer and the line between the 2 is razor thin. But our typical cold spring (March, April, 1st half of May) looks like it's going to be ongoing like years past. It'll make any winter weather shots harder, but ongoing 40's and low 50's for highs especially in March and April seems likely especially with PV split looking likely and MJO going into the .
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Seeing a warmer spring be honest. Mjo has less effect on cold when gets into spring. . I learned that from pro Mets I chat with on line. Particularly a La Niña spring season
 
iGRXY said:
February looks very 50/50 split in whether we torch or go into a deep freezer and the line between the 2 is razor thin. But our typical cold spring (March, April, 1st half of May) looks like it's going to be ongoing like years past. It'll make any winter weather shots harder, but ongoing 40's and low 50's for highs especially in March and April seems likely especially with PV split looking likely and MJO going into the left side or COD.
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Id bet if I was a betting man, That the later we go in a La Nina pattern the more it's gonna warm up. There will be more 60s and 70s than there will be 40s and 50s
 
tennessee storm said:
Seeing a warmer spring be honest. Mjo has less effect on cold when gets into spring. . I learned that from pro Mets I chat with on line. Particularly a La Niña spring season
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Doubt it. We have had ongoing cold springs for multiple years now. See nothing here that changes that. PV split supports it.
 
Twister said:
Id bet if I was a betting man, That the later we go in a La Nina pattern the more it's gonna warm up. There will be more 60s and 70s than there will be 40s and 50s
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La Nina is very weak. We have had on going cold springs with more high latitude blocking for multiple years now. PV split and webber pointing out that more -NAO blocking is likely supports the idea for colder spring and fits prior year progressions.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hope folks truly like cold rains in March. Either way we probably get blocky in March. +SCAND coming up signaling an -NAO and cooler MJO phases ? Big oof womp for March warmth. I’ve already excepted it
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Yes, I agree with this timing. I've accepted it, too. Winter was great this year! Ready for blueberries, blackberries and strawberries in the garden to come to life!
 
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