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Pattern Failboat February

On the bright side, the cold is staying bottled up and building through mid-February. If we get a more favorable pattern change around then, the cold air over the pole and northern Canada will be at unmoderated and at peak strength.
Least the mother load has come down already … we seen the coldest air we going see already
 
Seems like next period to watch is February 12-15. Seems likely they’ll be a storm then and there’s been some fantasy support for something wintry at times. Of course, it probably won’t work out but not seeing anything hopeful closer in.
 
At least we got our rare snowfall in down here. I'm worried that if February ends up too far AN local mets and TV casters will fixate on how "WINTER wuz warmer than AVERAGE" and not on the beautiful treat of the rare snow, nor on the fact that January was several degrees BN. Seems like February likes to pull out the rug on an otherwise good winter season too often, like the winter of 2017-18. I guess good things can't last all season long, and the pattern will flip inevitably. Hopefully signs are still pointing to a colder (relatively) second half of February still.
 
We are actually so back IMG_4745.pngIMG_4747.png
In all seriousness this look needs to be watched. Lots of Arctic high pressure around, but with a SE ridge trying to nose in, there’s gonna probably be some WAA in the mid levels across the SE US resulting in overrunning precipitation IMG_4749.pngIMG_4748.png
 
Been trying to tell you guys the 9-15th for days now.

Mby does best in mid February, regardless of 70s beforehand or not.

I'm anxiously awaiting the models to start showing something here. Currently there is only one ensemble member of the whole of models and their ensembles showing snow here though.

I expect a winter storm to pop up around here on modeling between the 9th and 15th

Feb 9 - 15
 
Preach:
It will accumulating Snow in Triad of NC before midnight Valentines Day 2025. Write it down. NCSNOW Guarantee
That timeframe has always been good for winter storm. Also the 20th-28th we have several events over last 30 years here in piedmont of NC
 
We a teetering between big time torch and deep freezer which is why you see so much waffling in the models day to day. One thing that gives me hope that we really only see above average the first week of February before the flip is the MJO progression. We appear to have it trending back to the left side. Now I have no clue about winter storm chances but I definitely could see a nice cold weeks 2-3, maybe 4 of Feb which is completely opposite from what we are use to.
 
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