-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
The 0z CFS last night had 4 separate winter precip events , the first one being this one. So theres still hope we can score one more event, hopefully a big wet heavy snow as we head into late winter / early March.
I'd Like to also be able to have several frost/freeze events per week through late March, to keep everything locked down as long as possible. Let it all come out at once, when its time.
Been a good winter so far and this is all that's needed for me to grade it an A+.
NCSNOW
Member
Yea this is a harbinger of things to come this spring/summer I'm afraid. Surprised Shettley isn't on here beating the drum already, cause its coming.
You cant get snow or severe wx for the warmnastiags , without any qpf around.
Not ideal.
But if you rotate the angle of everything from 8:00 to 6:00 we all get snowed on. Gross
belowfreezing
Member
At least January was a great month for many on the Board. February looks to be headed for a warm month.
I wonder what we average above normal by the end of February.
I wonder what we average above normal by the end of February.
belowfreezing
Member
So Kylo you feel we will have one more shot at a storm? Hope your right!
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,543
- Reaction score
- 5,493
From what I'm seeing today at 12Z, it doesn't look good for a cold pattern to return in the east in time to deliver. We are solidly above average for about 16 days and then give it a week or two after that (assuming the pattern breaks down even then), to deliver the cold in the east and you are looking at late February. That's not ideal for most outside of the mountains. Who knows if there's enough time? March can sometimes deliver. I'm going to enjoy the warmth and the sleep!
Models really reverted back to a weiner roast. This GFS temp chart looks like something out of mid-late March. CMC wants to go all out and get close to the 80s, looks like the euro is following suit as well 
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,543
- Reaction score
- 5,493
I think February is looking like an average temp of 10F over easy.
NCSNOW
Member
Catch a 2 day break around Feb 9 per Euro Op, But this will send a trough into west coast. It will be another week on model watching before we can see any 2cnd half Feb/ Early March Pattern outlooks. MJO should be where we want it by that time, so Ill stay optimistic till then.
Last edited:
I’m having trouble understanding why that -EPO isn’t doing more for us out in the extended? That Atlantic ridge means business and I’m not quite sure why. I just know it’s hard to get rid of in February. Honestly just scrolling through 500mb frame by frame over and over it looks like we’re in desperate need of a big -A0 to force cold air off the pole and give us a chance to reset into mid/ late February. Sucks we’re doing this now but we know how February normally goes
lol whatever this goofy sh** is it just tried to give us some snow.
Did we unlock a new level of desperation?
I’m just praying for a ULL at this point 
Did we unlock a new level of desperation?
I’m just praying for a ULL at this point
Who y’all got?
John1122
Member
Slight differences between the GFS and Euro.
Around D4-7 is the key imo
#1 you roll the cutoff back west and the ridge slightly east, that troughs the east.
#2 the cutoff releases we go big SER but then cold as the -epo tries to connect with a new WC ridge
#3 you get this, the overall longest duration warmest outcome.
#4 you bury this shortwave deep into the SW but that likely ends up cooler as systems can go by to the north and northeast
You have to think we are about to go through a jet extension period in the pac with what's going on in Asia.
LickWx
Member
I just like using catch phrases randomly. Fake it till you make it
LickWx
Member
#blastfurnace
It looks awful. Nothing good for days now which probably means it throws us a bone here before the weekend
tennessee storm
Member
Get your lawn mowers serviced ….
#blastgas #itsforclicks
Yep the euro suite has show a good amount of p8 late in their runs the last few days. Not sure if I'm ready to get fully on board with how the models have been too fast/low amp with their mjo projections
tennessee storm
Member
No guarantee there…. We find out soon
No guarantee there…. We find out soon
I've been watching the GFS progression v the Euro progression. GFS has a modest amplitude through the warm phases, while the Euro heads into the COD and emerges in P7. From there, it's unclear if/how long it will take to get to P8. Euro ext spirals into the COD and we never get back into the cold phases.
It seems like to me, the Euro has been wanting to weaken it too much. The upcoming pattern seems to better favor the GFS's depiction.
My guess is that the Euro suite is too weak and will correct more toward P8 as we go out in time.
Southern Track
Member
Yeah it seems that with the one and two week verification the GFS has been doing pretty well.I've been watching the GFS progression v the Euro progression. GFS has a modest amplitude through the warm phases, while the Euro heads into the COD and emerges in P7. From there, it's unclear if/how long it will take to get to P8. Euro ext spirals into the COD and we never get back into the cold phases.
It seems like to me, the Euro has been wanting to weaken it too much. The upcoming pattern seems to better favor the GFS's depiction.
My guess is that the Euro suite is too weak and will correct more toward P8 as we go out in time.
View attachment 167300
View attachment 167301
View attachment 167302
I've been watching the GFS progression v the Euro progression. GFS has a modest amplitude through the warm phases, while the Euro heads into the COD and emerges in P7. From there, it's unclear if/how long it will take to get to P8. Euro ext spirals into the COD and we never get back into the cold phases.
It seems like to me, the Euro has been wanting to weaken it too much. The upcoming pattern seems to better favor the GFS's depiction.
My guess is that the Euro suite is too weak and will correct more toward P8 as we go out in time.
View attachment 167300
View attachment 167301
View attachment 167302
At least it's not one of those tricks where the rmm doesn't make sense. Euro really does want to get the mjo out
Ural ridge plus big trough drop through Asia is going to try to trough the east at some point and probably mess with the mjo as well
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Warm cheerleaders getting what they wanted... yet another month being added with bugs, humidity, lawn cutting, pollen; guess they don't get enough from late March to Early Nov.
rburrel2
Member
On the bright side, the cold is staying bottled up and building through mid-February. If we get a more favorable pattern change around then, the cold air over the pole and northern Canada will be at unmoderated and at peak strength.
belowfreezing
Member
It is unlikely but after seeing snow in Northern Florida, Louisiana and the coast of North, South Carolina and Georgia I am not counting us completely out until mid-March. Between Helene and last week, we have seen some wild possibilities. In the meantime, it is amazing outside.