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Pattern Failboat February

iGRXY said:
La Nina is very weak. We have had on going cold springs with more high latitude blocking for multiple years now. PV split and webber pointing out that more -NAO blocking is likely supports the idea for colder spring and fits prior year progressions.
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Prior Years Have been above Normal in March and April, Nothing this year will be and Different it's still La Nina weak or not
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm thinking any serious threats hold until after VDay.
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Some Charlotte snowfall data...

For the 10 storms with 5+ inches during Feb 15-29, here is an ENSO breakdown:

Strong El Nino: 1
Moderate El Nino: 3
Warm Neutral: 1
Cool Neutral: 3
Weak La Nina: 1 (interestingly enough, this was in Feb 1895, when S Louisiana had record snowfall)
Moderate La Nina: 1

Charlotte Snow Events.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I love how basically the entire GEFS run thru day 11-12 trends to more western ridging. So on brand for this winter
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It seems to keep building the subtropical ridge across the SE to me.

That thing looks like a Bermuda high and is fairly constant.Screenshot 2025-01-31 130437.png
 
weatherfide said:
It seems to keep building the subtropical ridge across the SE to me.

That thing looks like a Bermuda high and is fairly constant.View attachment 167390
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Not that it's ice boxing the SE, but a 5 run trend of the 5 day mean H5 anomalies show a pronounced flattening of the western trough.

1738347784165.gif
 
griteater said:
Some Charlotte snowfall data...

For the 10 storms with 5+ inches during Feb 15-29, here is an ENSO breakdown:

Strong El Nino: 1
Moderate El Nino: 3
Warm Neutral: 1
Cool Neutral: 3
Weak La Nina: 1 (interestingly enough, this was in Feb 1895, when S Louisiana had record snowfall)
Moderate La Nina: 1

View attachment 167387
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There often seems to be a debate about the actual SST configuration vs how the atmosphere is behaving. So to smooth that out, if we blend Cool Neutral with Weak La Nina, then the odds for something toward the end of the month seem to be elevated.
 
Rain Cold said:
There often seems to be a debate about the actual SST configuration vs how the atmosphere is behaving. So to smooth that out, if we blend Cool Neutral with Weak La Nina, then the odds for something toward the end of the month seem to be elevated.
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I have a feeling that something might end up being a significant Ice/Sleet event. Im seeing some similarities to February 1994 and we obviously remember that Ice/sleet that went from the lower Mississippi valley east eastward to the Carolinas.
 
I have a question about the GRAF model. From what I can tell, it's a hi res model developed by The Weather Company, which incorporates AI, and is licensed for use by various media outlets and news stations around the country.

During the weather segment of a local newscast comes on and they refer to their "in-house" model, is it almost always the licensed version of the GRAF? Or could it be something else?
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Is this month really above normal for temps in much of the Southeast ? It seems like January has been below normal. Or is he talking about next month ?
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You know 100% for sure he is talking about February.

I know you want to participate in the discussion, but could you PLEASE try to add some level of value at least once in a while? Pretty please? With sugar on top? And a 🍒?
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS wanted to release the Arctic motherload late in the run. Remains a possibility with the ensembles keeping the good piece of cold situated on our side
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Anything artic type cold air locked up in upper anartic northern. Canada now …. If the pacific jet keeps on with its extension. The super cold will just slide across our northern neighbors in Canada n head due east
 
Thunder, tons of blackbirds on the ground.. cold is a coming!!! What did the Indians notice before there were computer models.. nature.. my great great grandmother was a Cherokee. I’ve had weather lore passed down all my life.. and I’ve seen it come to fruition..
 
Looks like the 12z Euro AI is back to showing a snow storm for Northern NC at least. Also a pretty classic CAD look, just a little too warm for freezing rain as depicted. All in all, It's the evolution we're hoping for in the hr 264-300 timeframe. Just hopefully with a little more of a cold press.
 
rburrel2 said:
Looks like the 12z Euro AI is back to showing a snow storm for Northern NC at least. Also a pretty classic CAD look, just a little too warm for freezing rain as depicted. All in all, It's the evolution we're hoping for in the hr 264-300 timeframe. Just hopefully with a little more of a cold press.
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Yes that’s the indication
 
Rain Cold said:
I have a question about the GRAF model. From what I can tell, it's a hi res model developed by The Weather Company, which incorporates AI, and is licensed for use by various media outlets and news stations around the country.

During the weather segment of a local newscast comes on and they refer to their "in-house" model, is it almost always the licensed version of the GRAF? Or could it be something else?
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From my understanding it's a modified MPAS CAM model run on GPU/NVIDIA hardware.

IBM claims it and if the news uses WSI, then it's the GRAF now.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Thunder, tons of blackbirds on the ground.. cold is a coming!!! What did the Indians notice before there were computer models.. nature.. my great great grandmother was a Cherokee. I’ve had weather lore passed down all my life.. and I’ve seen it come to fruition..
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Agree 100%. Blackbirds everywhere on our property today, and right now heavy rain, strong winds, and lightning here in Augusta GA. In ten days we will have an ice storm.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Saw this today!? Thoughts View attachment 167405
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Same concept as having a “service animal”. Just bring your dog to a restaurant and dare someone to ask for the papers. Everyone does it. If I get caught chasing a tornado I’ll just tell them I work for SouthernWx Television LLC and give them SD as my contact info
 
Tarheel1 said:
Saw this today!? Thoughts View attachment 167405
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I’m torn myself on this. On one hand we know how much storm chasers help, but on the other, how stupid the chasers are getting with their videos(Reed is one of those who deserves the blame) which will only continue to draw even greater numbers of idiots who just want the tictoc videos. Only a matter of time before they begin to kill drivers on the road.
 
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