I hate to say it, but our area is cooked without an arctic front. Upstate/NC probably gets a threat or two. Ensembles are still empty and temps aren't too great for anything Wintry here.Lay the foundation then deliver the boom.
RDU actually set their daily snowfall record back on January 21 last month with their 1.5”, breaking the previous record of 1.2” set back in 1961. It’s always wild to me how low the daily record snowfalls can be even during the heart of winter. I guess it just goes to show how rare snow actually is here.If the Carolinas and other areas do score in the period around Valentine's day I hope it will be a big snowstorm. The snowfall record for RDU on Feburary 14 is six inches recorded in 1913. That's a record that can be broken with a decent sized snowfall accumulation.
RDU actually set their daily snowfall record back on January 21 last month with their 1.5”, breaking the previous record of 1.2” set back in 1961. It’s always wild to me how low the daily record snowfalls can be even during the heart of winter. I guess it just goes to show how rare snow actually is here.
People around here are looking at their weather apps (lol) and squealing about it being above 70 for the next 9 days. Euro AI has us above 70 once until Friday/Saturday timeframe. Someone is going to be wrong.The euro ai has had some form of a southern snow storm like 8 of the last 9 runs. Would be nice if some other models or means also started honking
I ain’t talking just about our area. I know how to get Winter weather around here man. Lived here all my life.I hate to say it, but our area is cooked without an arctic front. Upstate/NC probably gets a threat or two. Ensembles are still empty and temps aren't too great for anything Wintry here.
Each consecutive run is starting to get that step-down look. Gonna see how far it can go in the coming daysWouldn’t shock me if this GFS run has a cad event
Yeah that’s big winner I 44 corridorMan places like Missouri northeast into Ohio valley bout to have fun!!may have to go visit my maw n law..lol
Weather channel app has us at 74 Tuesday.People around here are looking at their weather apps (lol) and squealing about it being above 70 for the next 9 days. Euro AI has us above 70 once until Friday/Saturday timeframe. Someone is going to be wrong.
We rarely score much other than sleet or zr with cad down this wayI ain’t talking just about our area. I know how to get Winter weather around here man. Lived here all my life.
And you know that ain’t true. We can score without an Arctic boundary. We can score off CAD or an upper level low.
Yup. AIFS has been showing it for days, starting to see a few ops doing it every now and then. Some ens members do itEach consecutive run is starting to get that step-down look. Gonna see how far it can go in the coming days
Valentines massacre for 85west up the coast.Yeah AIFS went full weenie
Can't wait for the SV clownsValentines massacre for 85west up the coast.️
Damn 2 events ? Gonna look into why it’s the better look vs other modeling rq
Here’s what I mean. The more momentum you throw into the pacific, the more you can nudge the pattern east. Wavelengths shorten in February so we could use some more help from the pacific jet.Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
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Yep, and I’d bet on the euro ai being more correct with that extension, and it seems like the other modeling has been trending in that direction today.Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
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Haven’t we already done that…RDU with 2” of snow past 3 year and I think like 6 in the past 6 yearsI would give up the next 3 years to get 18-20 inches of snow in a storm.
AIFS is still in timeout though. I’m still waiting for my 3-4 inches in mid January. If it breaks my heart this time, I throw it in the trash with the GEFS. But deep down, I know somebody’s scoring here in the Carolina’s.![]()
Thats a complete north pole nuking. That would have big consequences later on