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Pattern Failboat February
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I hate to say it, but our area is cooked without an arctic front. Upstate/NC probably gets a threat or two. Ensembles are still empty and temps aren't too great for anything Wintry here.
RDU actually set their daily snowfall record back on January 21 last month with their 1.5”, breaking the previous record of 1.2” set back in 1961. It’s always wild to me how low the daily record snowfalls can be even during the heart of winter. I guess it just goes to show how rare snow actually is here.
Quite consistent CAD sig on the AI 
Tsappfrog20
Member
According to the website all time daily is the 20” storm maybe for that specific day but not all time
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rburrel2
Member
The euro ai has had some form of a southern snow storm like 8 of the last 9 runs. Would be nice if some other models or means also started honking
People around here are looking at their weather apps (lol) and squealing about it being above 70 for the next 9 days. Euro AI has us above 70 once until Friday/Saturday timeframe. Someone is going to be wrong.
I ain’t talking just about our area. I know how to get Winter weather around here man. Lived here all my life.
And you know that ain’t true. We can score without an Arctic boundary. We can score off CAD or an upper level low.
Wouldn’t shock me if this GFS run has a cad event
Pops
Member
Man places like Missouri northeast into Ohio valley bout to have fun!!may have to go visit my maw n law..lol
Each consecutive run is starting to get that step-down look. Gonna see how far it can go in the coming days
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah that’s big winner I 44 corridor
Oconeexman
Member
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Weather channel app has us at 74 Tuesday.
Gfs says 67
Euro ai says 71
Euro says 74
I'm not sure which one or what blend they use but inside 5 days they're pretty good and seem to adjust with each model run.
But like the computer models it's pretty useless after 5 days
We rarely score much other than sleet or zr with cad down this way
rburrel2
Member
oh boy...... euro AI going old testament again.
Yeah AIFS went full weenie
Yup. AIFS has been showing it for days, starting to see a few ops doing it every now and then. Some ens members do it
Can't wait for the SV clownsValentines massacre for 85west up the coast.️
Damn 2 events ? Gonna look into why it’s the better look vs other modeling rq
Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
Here’s what I mean. The more momentum you throw into the pacific, the more you can nudge the pattern east. Wavelengths shorten in February so we could use some more help from the pacific jet.
rburrel2
Member
Yep, and I’d bet on the euro ai being more correct with that extension, and it seems like the other modeling has been trending in that direction today.
Seems like the reason the AI goes full split with the strat is from the big NPAC low/+SCAND (which becomes a -NAO) which results in heat fluxes transferred poleward into the upper troposphere 
SnowNiner
Member
I would give up the next 3 years to get 18-20 inches of snow in a storm.
AIFS is still in timeout though. I’m still waiting for my 3-4 inches in mid January. If it breaks my heart this time, I throw it in the trash with the GEFS. But deep down, I know somebody’s scoring here in the Carolina’s.
Haven’t we already done that…RDU with 2” of snow past 3 year and I think like 6 in the past 6 yearsI would give up the next 3 years to get 18-20 inches of snow in a storm.
AIFS is still in timeout though. I’m still waiting for my 3-4 inches in mid January. If it breaks my heart this time, I throw it in the trash with the GEFS. But deep down, I know somebody’s scoring here in the Carolina’s.
AI with the BIG blocking!
That block over Iceland looks like its in the shape of Iceland, very symmetrical. The Greenland block is a thing of beauty!
SnowNiner
Member
I mean the AIFS seems to have the strat split just right and the jet extension just right for us. Can it really lead the way here? It has seemed to have the big picture right for each event in January from a ways out. Just seems too good to be true with other models not quite there yet.
Thats a complete north pole nuking. That would have big consequences later on
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically tried to pull off Feb 17-19 1989 again.
Actually……back to back cad storms on gfs as well similar to euro ai. It’s about to get interesting around here! I live in NW NC and I’m loving what I’m seeing. The gfs is more sleet/zr but regardless signal is there.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
A 48 hour ice storm on the GFS…
GFS op is moving towards an Aleutian low. Keeps the big ridge out of the eastern pacific and moves it into the Arctic which totally changes the longwave pattern. Sets us up for more of a north to south cold dump as opposed to trough rotting in the west. If we can keep that low trending stronger west of AK, watch out mid month.
John1122
Member
The GFS just gave me 3 inches of ice in a multi-day ice storm. That last happened here in December 1998.
Seems like this Atlantic ridging we’re battling now is leading to some massive wave breaks in the northern Atlantic which ultimately pumps heights at the pole later and leads to some nice blocking. If we can get the same cooperation from the Aleutian side of things the eastern US is going to get a big crescendo from winter 2025.