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Pattern Failboat February

If the Carolinas and other areas do score in the period around Valentine's day I hope it will be a big snowstorm. The snowfall record for RDU on Feburary 14 is six inches recorded in 1913. That's a record that can be broken with a decent sized snowfall accumulation.
RDU actually set their daily snowfall record back on January 21 last month with their 1.5”, breaking the previous record of 1.2” set back in 1961. It’s always wild to me how low the daily record snowfalls can be even during the heart of winter. I guess it just goes to show how rare snow actually is here.
 
RDU actually set their daily snowfall record back on January 21 last month with their 1.5”, breaking the previous record of 1.2” set back in 1961. It’s always wild to me how low the daily record snowfalls can be even during the heart of winter. I guess it just goes to show how rare snow actually is here.

According to the website all time daily is the 20” storm maybe for that specific day but not all time


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The euro ai has had some form of a southern snow storm like 8 of the last 9 runs. Would be nice if some other models or means also started honking
People around here are looking at their weather apps (lol) and squealing about it being above 70 for the next 9 days. Euro AI has us above 70 once until Friday/Saturday timeframe. Someone is going to be wrong.
 
I hate to say it, but our area is cooked without an arctic front. Upstate/NC probably gets a threat or two. Ensembles are still empty and temps aren't too great for anything Wintry here.
I ain’t talking just about our area. I know how to get Winter weather around here man. Lived here all my life.

And you know that ain’t true. We can score without an Arctic boundary. We can score off CAD or an upper level low.
 
Man places like Missouri northeast into Ohio valley bout to have fun!!may have to go visit my maw n law..lol
 
People around here are looking at their weather apps (lol) and squealing about it being above 70 for the next 9 days. Euro AI has us above 70 once until Friday/Saturday timeframe. Someone is going to be wrong.
Weather channel app has us at 74 Tuesday.
Gfs says 67
Euro ai says 71
Euro says 74
I'm not sure which one or what blend they use but inside 5 days they're pretty good and seem to adjust with each model run.
But like the computer models it's pretty useless after 5 days
 
I ain’t talking just about our area. I know how to get Winter weather around here man. Lived here all my life.

And you know that ain’t true. We can score without an Arctic boundary. We can score off CAD or an upper level low.
We rarely score much other than sleet or zr with cad down this way
 
Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
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Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
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Here’s what I mean. The more momentum you throw into the pacific, the more you can nudge the pattern east. Wavelengths shorten in February so we could use some more help from the pacific jet. IMG_4828.png
 
Welp that was quick. It’s the most extended with the pacific jet. Hence why the overall wintry threats are shifted SE as the longwave pattern is shifted east. This might have legs tbh. Trend this winter has been more extended pac jet, just saying. But the difference in the pac jet being extended west of Hawaii and it being extended east of Hawaii determines a winter storm or torch… crazy. It’s worth noting though the EPS especially has slowly starting extending it more. Something to watch here
View attachment 167456
Yep, and I’d bet on the euro ai being more correct with that extension, and it seems like the other modeling has been trending in that direction today.
 
Shield your eyes if you have a nervous stomach

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I would give up the next 3 years to get 18-20 inches of snow in a storm. ❄️

AIFS is still in timeout though. I’m still waiting for my 3-4 inches in mid January. If it breaks my heart this time, I throw it in the trash with the GEFS. But deep down, I know somebody’s scoring here in the Carolina’s. 🌨️
 
I would give up the next 3 years to get 18-20 inches of snow in a storm. ❄️

AIFS is still in timeout though. I’m still waiting for my 3-4 inches in mid January. If it breaks my heart this time, I throw it in the trash with the GEFS. But deep down, I know somebody’s scoring here in the Carolina’s. 🌨️
Haven’t we already done that…RDU with 2” of snow past 3 year and I think like 6 in the past 6 years
 
AI with the BIG blocking!

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I mean the AIFS seems to have the strat split just right and the jet extension just right for us. Can it really lead the way here? It has seemed to have the big picture right for each event in January from a ways out. Just seems too good to be true with other models not quite there yet.
 
Actually……back to back cad storms on gfs as well similar to euro ai. It’s about to get interesting around here! I live in NW NC and I’m loving what I’m seeing. The gfs is more sleet/zr but regardless signal is there.


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GFS also bringing the high latitude blocking gotta love it!


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GFS op is moving towards an Aleutian low. Keeps the big ridge out of the eastern pacific and moves it into the Arctic which totally changes the longwave pattern. Sets us up for more of a north to south cold dump as opposed to trough rotting in the west. If we can keep that low trending stronger west of AK, watch out mid month.IMG_1357.pngIMG_1356.gif
 
Seems like this Atlantic ridging we’re battling now is leading to some massive wave breaks in the northern Atlantic which ultimately pumps heights at the pole later and leads to some nice blocking. If we can get the same cooperation from the Aleutian side of things the eastern US is going to get a big crescendo from winter 2025.
 
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