Pattern Fabulous February

[Jon]

That far S SN of 2/58 was when there was a solid +PNA/-AO/-NAO, none of which are in the 14 day forecast of GEFS.

Yeah that’s why I did the +10 days....all this is showing is examples of how this pattern can flip in 10 days. I didn’t say it snowed on the analog date.

Another way of thinking of this is 14 day GEFS + 10 day period following.

So we are looking at Day 11-15 + 10

So 11-21 day to 15-25 day period


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[GaWx]

Yeah that’s why I did the +10 days....all this is showing is examples of how this pattern can flip in 10 days. I didn’t say it snowed on the analog date


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But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.

Until I see the model consensus showing a sig change from the current pattern, I will not be optimistic.

 

[tonysc]

I hear you. It’s just that people use it as a predictor. It’s not. It’s just a talking point. It doesn’t actually mean anything about upcoming snow chances or lack thereof. Kind of like it being 70 before snow. And please, nobody take offense to that — I mean it only to illustrate a point. It’s hard to get snow here anymore. A 6” snowstorm in Dec has no bearing on the rest of the winter, but I have heard it spoken about in that context many times this year. The atmosphere doesn’t care that it already snowed 6”. Just like it’s often warm before a snowstorm (simply because we live in the SE, where it’s often warm in the winter), it’s often warm followed by no snow. That’s all I’m saying with the 6” thing. If it hasn’t snowed by the end of Feb and we had a big snowstorm in the immediate forecast, I’d be more inclined to think that would be the only big one we would get for the rest of the winter. But in mid-December? No.

Amen and hallelujah to that.

 

[WXinCanton]

But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.

At 14 days guidance is pretty much a coin toss IMO.

 

[Jon]

But going out 14 days, there’s still no indication of any pattern change. If there had been models in 1958 that went out 14 days, maybe they would have shown a pattern change within 14. Currently, the N PAC block/-PNA/SER shows no signs of a big reversal thru day 14.

Day 7-8 to day 13-14 you see the -EPO breaking down on GEFS. Not sure if I’m missing something here... also I’m not so sure models would sniff out Day 15+ pattern changes even in the current state of modeling, not to mention 58. Sometimes modeling has no freaking clue about the 10-15 day, so I’m always optimistic about pattern changes in that period, especially in the 15 day period that models have a verification score of like 0.1

So you think this pattern will stick for a period of 25 days? I think it breaks down, it likely won’t be in time for anything wintry, but it’s Feb 9th. March snows, although rare, can happen. You’re well aware.

I’m not in no way optimistic for such a thing, but I admit I have a better chance here at RDU than a lot of the board and that’s not missed on me.


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[GaWx]

Day 7-8 to day 13-14 you see the -EPO breaking down on GEFS. Not sure if I’m missing something here... also I’m not so sure models would sniff out Day 15+ pattern changes even in the current state of modeling, not to mention 58. Sometimes modeling has no freaking clue about the 10-15 day, so I’m always optimistic about pattern changes in that period, especially in the 15 day period that models have a verification score of like 0.1

So you think this pattern will stick for a period of 25 days? I think it breaks down, it likely won’t be in time for anything wintry, but it’s Feb 9th. March snows, although rare, can happen. You’re well aware.

I’m not in no way optimistic for such a thing, but I admit I have a better chance here at RDU than a lot of the board and that’s not missed on me.


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If you’re talking 10 days after 15 days (25 days out or early Mar), that’s diff from what I thought you were referring to. I thought you meant out just 14-15 days, which shows nothing even resembling a favorable pattern change on EPS/GEFS. That could end up wrong, but there’s no reason to think it will be. But I agree there’s no telling about day 25. And yes, of course, RDU would have a much better chance than most of the SE.

 

[Jon]

If you’re talking 10 days after 15 days (25 days out or early Mar), that’s diff from what I thought you were referring to. I thought you meant out just 14-15 days, which shows nothing even resembling a favorable pattern change on EPS/GEFS. That could end up wrong, but there’s no reason to think it will be. But I agree there’s no telling about day 25.

I’m referring to an 11-15 day analog from yesterday, + 10 day period following.

So technically, I’m taking about Day 20-24.



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[GaWx]

At 14 days guidance is pretty much a coin toss IMO.

If models were jumping around, that would be different. But I disagree in the current case with the GEFS/EPS run after run showing nothing even close to favorable. Besides, there’s been a decided cold bias in models recently. Now 25 days from now could much more easily be a difference story. That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.

 

[Jon]

CPC Week 3-4 looks much different and is the period I’m talking about. Feb 23-March 8

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[Jon]

That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.

Yep exactly why you kinda have to look at analogs of the past and how we got out of a pattern that was similar in February which was my intention posting the eps analog dates +1-10 day snowfall. Seeing if it was possible this pattern has ever flipped to allow a snowfall in 10 says, which it did for the top 4 analogs (which surprised me). You can find some pretty terrible patterns on those analog dates.



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[GaWx]

CPC Week 3-4 looks much different and is the period I’m talking about. Feb 23-March 8

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They’ve been forecasting cold E US in these week 3-4 outlooks for quite awhile and they have not been verifying. Week 3-4 is essentially unforecastable. So, maybe it will be right this time. Maybe not.

 

[WXinCanton]

If models were jumping around, that would be different. But I disagree in the current case with the GEFS/EPS run after run showing nothing even close to favorable. Besides, there’s been a decided cold bias in models recently. Now 25 days from now could much more easily be a difference story. That’s essentially not forecastable though we can try to get a hint based on where we think the MJO may be then.

Agree, though things beyond 7 days or so can flip on the turn of dime. Not calling for epic pattern to emerge or anything, I'll leave that to @Rain Cold tomorrow.

 

[ATLwxfan]

They’ve been forecasting cold E US in these week 3-4 outlooks for quite awhile and they have not been verifying. Week 3-4 is essentially unforecastable. So, maybe it will be right this time. Maybe not.

Exactly. This is just an expectation of a pattern flip. I’m not sure I’ve seen any modeling to support this. Why not just say “we don’t know” instead of conjecture?


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Rain Cold weve been in a cutter pattern for the better part of 2 months. Who is the big winner here? Anybody? Or is it mainly a snow to rain type of thing for even the most favorable areas to our north?

 

[BIG FROSTY]

But ....... Larry Cosgrove said.....

What He said is only 10 days away, not now!!! It coming just hang on a little bit longer...........................................

 

[cyclogent]

The pattern is actually not half bad at all days 7 to 10. Next weekend into early the week of Prez day could hold some potential.

 

[Stormdoc]

The 7-10 day is at least not a complete shut out yet, we still have the coldest air of the northern hemisphere just to our north, just no way storms won’t cut with the huge -PNA. If it just went neutral even I think we would have a shot at overrunning in this pattern. Frustrating nothing is aligning right this winter.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

In no way shape or form is this winter over. Yes everyone’s backyard has been sad lately but we are in no means a La Niña patter or one that will provide sustained warmth for us. We are now just waiting for a backloaded winter. U can’t cancel winter until winter is actually over. I swear every 24 HOURS y’all cancel winter... like what... it’s been literally a day Hahahaha I have faith in this pattern and if it doesn’t end up happening(which we should know by March 15) then we can cancel winter and be some scrooges but tbh the winter still needs to catch up in the northeast which is what I think it will be doing in the next week and then after this week let’s see what models are showing then. We all know the models can change significantly in 3 days time so let’s just pump the breaks and chill

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Winter may not be over but optimism for a winter storm is going down the drain and I am typically an optimist. This winter for my part of N GA has royally sucked.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

In no way shape or form is this winter over. Yes everyone’s backyard has been sad lately but we are in no means a La Niña patter or one that will provide sustained warmth for us. We are now just waiting for a backloaded winter. U can’t cancel winter until winter is actually over. I swear every 24 HOURS y’all cancel winter... like what... it’s been literally a day Hahahaha I have faith in this pattern and if it doesn’t end up happening(which we should know by March 15) then we can cancel winter and be some scrooges but tbh the winter still needs to catch up in the northeast which is what I think it will be doing in the next week and then after this week let’s see what models are showing then. We all know the models can change significantly in 3 days time so let’s just pump the breaks and chill

Well there's 19 days left to score. Unless you are hinting at the possibility of a "front loaded spring" ?