• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fabulous February

Future radar ( RPM or NAM) showing onset sleet here at around 9-10 o’clock! Even down to Greenwood! Guess we will see if we can get precip in any earlier, could be slightly interesting!?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Don't look now but the GFS has a gulf low next weekend. However, it's too far out to even think about right now.
Click to expand...
I looked, couldn’t help it!
This is about a week later, one day they are going to nail this” cold frontal passage low formation “ that keeps showing up!6EB20F7B-1270-43B2-A312-D22FE8F555E9.png
 
All the models have that GFS storm for next Friday. Unfortunately GFS is the only one that dives it out of the plains into the GOM and turns in to noreaster. FV3 miller B's off NC coast, and the Canadian& Euro Lakes cutter. Bottom line its cutting.

The only glimmer of hope I see on LR ens over next 15 days as we draw Feb to a close is we stay closer to seasonal/slightly AN as opposed to the record heat we've had this week. I'm all in still on "winters over train. " The only thing left to rubber stamp this idea is seeing if early March doesn't pull a rabbit out of the hat. Should have that answer possibly by this time next week. Then I'm sure late March and April will lock in BN probably with a stout negative NAO so we can upper 30's /rain lol.
 
Last edited:
That coastal on the GFS could finally beat back the SER...in a world where the 06z GFS alone on an island is 100% predictive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NCSNOW said:
All the models have that GFS storm for next Friday. Unfortunately GFS is the only one that dives it out of the plains into the GOM and turns in to noreaster. FV3 miller B's off NC coast, and the Canadian& Euro Lakes cutter. Bottom line its cutting.

The only glimmer of hope I see on LR ens over next 15 days as we draw Feb to a close is we stay closer to seasonal/slightly AN as opposed to the record heat we've had this week. I'm all in still on "winters over train. " The only thing left to rubber stamp this idea is seeing if early March doesn't pull a rabbit out of the hat. Should have that answer possibly by this time next week. Then I'm sure late March and April will lock in BN probably with a stout negative NAO so we can upper 30's /rain lol.
Click to expand...
You know this yearly NAO turning negative at just the wrong time is not just bad luck or coincidence. Mother nature is doing this deliberately to mess with us. IDK... maybe God is punishing us.
 
Well better than 0
38255f56e1df66d4dba2916a9f970079.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Geez if the cold front was to be here by tommorow we would easily be at the mid 80s today, it’s 65 degrees out already and a dew of 66
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez if the cold front was to be here by tommorow we would easily be at the mid 80s today, it’s 65 degrees out already and a dew of 66
Click to expand...
75 should be easy, despite the “ temps dropping all day” like we fell for during the analfrontal
 
Six Mile Wx said:
The AO definitely took a turn for the worse
Click to expand...
We're on track to see just exactly how bad we can get the pattern for the southeast. I think we're very close to peak awfulness and will start the turn this weekend. I stand by my 12z Sunday call. If we're not seeing a realistic change to something better on the horizon, you can 86 this winter. Not saying we still can't get a fluke, but as far as feeling like winter most of the time, forget it.

I think the 0z FV3 had some decent blocking showing up in near Greenland (I know the GFS regular did). In fact, I think the actual evolution of the FV3 pattern was good. I say *think* because TT decided they wanted to get all screwy with the FV3 maps again. I had to go to PivotalWx, and I'm not used to how those maps are formatted. So I could me making a bad analysis, since I'm not exactly comparing apples to apples.

Anyway, the Euro MJO continues to look good, although from what I could decipher, the EPS looked horrendous and didn't reflect any of that...which is weird, as the MJO has driven the pattern all season. It would be just our luck for it to be overridden here at the end, when it finally gets going in a good phase for us. SOI is crashing too, so that's good. Anyway...12z Sunday is my cut date. Happy Friday!

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top