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Pattern Fabulous February

I don't think there is any question that there is a cool down in early March. But how much of a cool down and does it coincide with moisture?

Right now it looks cold and dry. And somewhat fleeting...
 
Delta Thunder said:
I don't think there is any question that there is a cool down in early March. But how much of a cool down and does it coincide with moisture?

Right now it looks cold and dry. And somewhat fleeting...
Click to expand...

This doesn't look dry at all esp for an ENS mean 300 hours out that's very dispersed.

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Delta Thunder said:
Agree that it does not look dry for the Southeast... but for the areas near and above a Dallas to Grenada to Nashville line it looks pretty dry.
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I wouldn't read that much detail into the models this far out and assume a threat couldn't materialize from this pattern anywhere in the SE US just because it looks kinda dry in your backyard on the models atm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't read that much detail into the models this far out and assume a threat couldn't materialize from this pattern anywhere in the SE US just because it looks kinda dry in your backyard on the models atm.
Click to expand...
You are correct. Many times these things trend far to the northwest. I would not be surprised if the arctic front stalls between I-40 and I-20.
 
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
Screen Shot 2019-02-18 at 3.41.05 PM.png

download.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
View attachment 15925

View attachment 15924
Click to expand...

-EPO/+NAO is decent, that argues for a sheared southern stream storm, setups like that has done well in the southeast, I like a -NAO but if we get a southern wave it would likely amp up due to the -NAO, nice to see a actual favorable pattern again
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once central Pacific forcing abates, the favored pattern over the North Pacific-North America-North Atlantic sector is for eastward extension of the Aleutian low, NE Pacific ridge migrates into Alaska and/or NW Canada w/ a -NAO. We'll end up w/ some variation of this in early march that's skewed more towards a -EPO/+NAO, but it's a pattern we can score something substantial in during early March or the last day or two of February.

The favored window for us to score here is probably somewhere around Feb 27-Mar 7 (& beyond into mid March ?)
View attachment 15925

View attachment 15924
Click to expand...

Hope you are right, because it has been so boring here the last two plus months.
 
Nice little surprise throughout last night and this morning with sleet showers. 36 degrees out and slowly falling still with a 32dp. Nothing major of course with it still in the mid 30s, just unexpected.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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