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Pattern Fabulous February

GaWx said:
Holy Moses at the 0Z GFS' W Canadian block near days 9-10!

Possible epic run alert, possible epic run alert!

Edit: Hmm, maybe those super cold FV3 runs are not so insane after all.
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Strange run at 500. Nice to see the disruption of that big trough out west though. How it plays out from there is anyone’s guess. Let’s just hope it’s not transient, but if it is let’s pray for something firing out of the gulf as that big blue blob digs in or pulls out ??
 
The 0Z GEFS is also picking up on the very strong NW Canada ridge near the end of the month! 11-15 GEFS liable to be a much colder run and maybe the coldest yet in the SE for early March!
 
To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?
 
GaWx said:
To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?
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Id take this look, nice -EPO/slightly +PNA couplet, ridging around Greenland, and that PV lobe to keep things suppressed, also it’s not 300+ hours away, wouldn’t this favor a southern slider ? 9A3BDFD3-73E6-482F-A119-ABE017E71391.jpeg
 
As off the wall as this winter has been thus far, a significant cold snap for March wouldn't shock me at this point for the SE. This will be interesting to following over the next couple of weeks to see where the players end up on the field and if a home run or grand slam can be had for some.

GaWx said:
To give you an idea of how cold the 0Z GEFS is in the Midwest 2/28-3/4, Des Moines is a whopping 24 colder than normal, which is equal to an incredible 13 colder than the coldest part of winter in Jan for a five day period! So, that's the intensity of cold that he GEFS thinks will be plunging down. Could this be its recent cold bias playing tricks on us? Of course, it could but even when taking away the average cold bias for the 11-15 there, it would still be 22 colder than normal or 11 colder than the normal for midwinter. I'd have to look really hard to see if they've ever been that cold in early March. If only this were really going to happen and if only it could be tapped down in the SE. Can you say early to mod March 1960, early March 1980, or mid March of 1993 type of cold? Or early March of 1899? Or parts of March of 1996?
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Well well well...as Larry said, the 00z Euro kinda flipped. I’ll take my chances with this for the first week of March.

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10-15 day
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And what do you know? The 12Z GFS is much warmer in the SE than the 0Z 2/26-3/3. On this run, no freeze at KATL. Also, the 6Z FV3 was much warmer than recent runs. We just cannot get a break this winter lol. #ModelColdIsAMirage

More seriously, I'm more interested in what the 12Z GEFS will say. Operationals are highly unreliable much past day 7.
 
So, here's the deal in a nutshell for the period 2/28-3/4 for RDU/ATL:

- 12Z GFS has them right at normal
- 12Z GEFS has them averaging 5 colder than normal

The GFS has an overall warm bias and is very jumpy in the 11-15 (more for entertainment than anything although it can still project what may lie ahead) , but the much less unreliable GEFS in the 11-15 has had a strong cold bias of about 7/day on average in the SE. If one were to correct for bias, the 12z GEFS implies it will actually be ~2 warmer than normal for 2/28-3/4 for RDU/ATL. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Will the cold bias finally be broken with an actual colder pattern change or not?
 
I think we have one more mixed bag storm (late Feb/early March) before we truly turn into a snowier pattern in March. Tired of the ice.
 
Although it is warmer for 2/27-8 vs the 0Z Euro (what else is new), I think most folks are going to like the 240 hour 12Z Euro map, especially vs the 12Z GFS 240. Up next the 12Z EPS and then the always exciting Euro Bleaklies, which are actually an extension of the 0z EPS!
 
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