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Pattern Fabulous February

To be fair, the 00Z Doc was pretty cold and snowy. So if it has a cutter now, it faked itself out as well for at lease a run. Individual EPS members were interesting too. Day 7 8 does seem to be when everything goes off the rails though.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s real close for western Tennessee and northern Mississippi just need a little better cold push


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Click to expand...

It’s actually not that close till the system is lifting out


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This is not a map that supports a southeast winter storm. I don't have the in-between panels, but given the 168 evolution to this look, I can't imagine they're worth even looking at.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png
 
12z eps ....meh
96542a6dddcaa4ef635698308904f68a.jpg
82121b20fbdd3b5129c03b7439c5e4c1.jpg



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The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

MJO.jpg

And yet, you get this look:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.
Click to expand...

In other words, what used to work for us to get snow doesn't work anymore for some reason.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
Click to expand...

Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro is still showing the same MJO progression it has for days, which looks good. And the MJO has driven the pattern most of the winter. So, by D10, the MJO goes here:

View attachment 15473

And yet, you get this look:

View attachment 15474

Something beyond the realm of understanding is working against getting a trough in the east. We should see blocking develop. We don't. The trough should be in the east. It isn't. This winter should be back loaded. It won't be. The pattern has looked like this for days. It should evolve differently. It hasn't. None of the guidance anywhere looks favorable or has trended more favorably in any meaningful way, in terms of getting into a cold and snowy pattern for the SE.

I'm not giving up on a brief period (maybe a week or so in early March) of a cold pattern, supportive of snow. I'm not giving up on a well-timed event, which could take place at short notice over the next few weeks. But I no longer see any rationale, given the data, that suggests it is wise to expect a stably favorable pattern to set in in time to offer a multitude of wintry chances for the Southeast.

I am, however, quite confident by the time we get into the second half of March, there will be blocks as far as the eye can see and cool anomalies centered directly over our region. Cool rains will continue to prevail, and we will watch helplessly as plants and trees fall victim to late season freezes, after yet another early start to the growing season. Spring will be late to arrive as wedge after wedge finally gives way to the blistering heat of another unbearable summer, the only glimmer of hope rising from the birth of an El Nino loading the back-end of another distant winter.

Autumn, tarrying until the last moment, finally arrives, filling the world with great anticipation of the coming winter wonderland, chronicled expertly throughout the seasonal forecasting community. An early season cold snap stirs the imagination of the snowstorms that lie ahead, growing further from the chorus of long range model charts foretelling bitter cold and deep snow. As the icy mirage gives way to concerns of seemingly endless mid-Winter warmth, the cries for better expectations are mounted to rescue the hope of the coming finale so grand as to be worthy in likeness to the great winters of yore.

But as another tepid winter passes like rain upon the meadow, few will lament it's departure. And the melting dreams of deep Winter snow will spill into a new season, watering the seeds of faith that next winter will be of a different kind. In the meantime, we will find joy in the flakes that fell, in the friends we have, and in our joined struggle to search out together that next cold and snowy winter that will one day surely appear on the bright horizon.

The hours have finally gone down in the night. And with that, I'm officially out.
Click to expand...

Phase 8 (W hem) MJO events only weakly favor troughiness in the E US at this time of the year at best, unlike earlier in winter (Dec-Jan) when they're far more significant. The seasonal cycle in the E Hem monsoon circulation, jet wavelengths, and the zonal extent of tropical convection all matter when assessing the connection between tropical forcing and the mid-latitude wave response. We also have wave interference from ENSO, wave trains propagating in/around & through the longitudinal window where westerly momentum is being dumped into the mid-latitude jet by convection and wave trains emanating from other wave sources aside from convection like the Rockies or Himalayas, in addition to the background climate state, all of the above's role is more subtle on the timescales we're worried about but they matter in cases like this because it dramatically alters the pattern response.
500h_anom.na.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 3.14.27 PM.png
 
Rain Cold said:
This is not a map that supports a southeast winter storm. I don't have the in-between panels, but given the 168 evolution to this look, I can't imagine they're worth even looking at.

View attachment 15471
Click to expand...
Its not that far off though on the front end for our area. This type of setup favors a brief period of wintry weather on at onset especially in the NW Piedmont then sitting in the wedge doldrums for infinity.

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