Be careful with WAR like the CMC is showing. Remember that the WAR has been a problem this winter.
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Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Starts Monday in Texas and LA so technically 7. It’s been S^^^^^ winter so I’m grasping for straws .
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RollTide18
Member
I don’t see why the GFS only showing it is a bad thing, not like any other model has been good except the RGEM. When we did get model consensus during that fail of a Winter Storm a few weeks ago, they all failed, except the RGEM.
It would be cool to have a sleet storm. Bring it own.
Ilovesnow28
Member
I wouldn't necessarily say that the GFS has been all bad it just this winter it hasn't had a good track record so far beyond 4 days
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, besides the December storm here, all of the models have been bad this winter with showing storms 7-10 days out, only for them to disappear or not materialize close to what the models were showing that far out. Seems this winter the ops and ensembles are both only good for showing us there might be a chance for a winter storm, but what actually happens is pretty much up in the air.
BIG drops in SOI. I think we have 1 more window. And that’s it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This SE ridge:
Needs to weaken for those east of NW/maybe W GA and east of the apps to have a chance. We'll see if that happens.
Needs to weaken for those east of NW/maybe W GA and east of the apps to have a chance. We'll see if that happens.
CobraMedic
Member
We all know chances are it’s not going to happen. But at least we have something showing. Something to watch. Snow weenies unite!
Exactly what I been saying, exactly why I’m finding it hard to be optimistic Because 75% of the time the SE ridge will ruin a chance for a winter storm
Gefs through day 8
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JLL1973
Member
wow. that gfs run is the best ive seen for the midsouth in recent memory. too bad it will be gone next run.
GFS forms a coastal on the heels of the big overrunning event. These types 200hr scenarios usually catch my attention because this, to me, signals that there is most likely a LOT more ironing out to do. Even more than usual
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Again, why do people say this unless they have something they see in the pattern to cause it?
Ridging is actually sharpening more NE to SW which imo enhances the possibility of an overrunning event for folks to the west. Won’t work for NC/SC outside of elevation. Good for Bama folks though
Becuase there is something in the pattern that can take it away, a stronger SER for example which has been trending stronger on all models pretty much
JLL1973
Member
gfs looks to be on an island by itself also
Through day ten.
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